As a new feature this week, I will begin my (imaginary) career as a handicapper.  I have recently stated that I am considering starting a call line for handicapping advice and this week begins my serious exploration into my abilities in this area.  I have put a lot of effort this year into the details of the NFL and its games, trends, stats and all that affects the actual on-field product.  Despite my three fantasy teams having a combined 13-14 record to this point(injuries at running back being the main culprit), I feel that I'm making progress in my evaluatory skills.   So at the risk of putting myself out there for your criticism(i.e.  irishdog's comment "nice write-up moron"), here goes nothing.  I do welcome any comments you all may have including on my possible handicapping alias; what do you think of Gabriel Gold?  Alright, on to the picks: In no particular order, here are the five lines that I think are most vulnerable this week. (1) Kansas City -3 vs. Denver.  The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS against Denver in their last five overall and have won the last 4 at Arrowhead.  Larry Johnson's absence should not hinder their ability to run the ball, and the presence of Dwayne Bowe should stretch the field enough to free up Tony Gonzales underneath against a Bronco team that has had troubles covering tight ends this year.  The Chiefs defense will also cause Denver fits as KC will win this one handily. (2) Chicago -3.5 vs. Oakland.  The Bears are coming off their bye and Cedric Benson now gets his best chance for a breakout game so far this season.  Oakland is giving up 5.1 yards per carry on the ground.  For Chicago, the run sets up the pass and look for rookie Greg Olsen to continue making an impact, as well as a nice game for Bernard Barrian, and Brian Griese will not throw three red zone interceptions this week.  I know the Bears defense is banged up and much maligned this year, can you believe they are currently 27th in the league?, but a struggling Raider offense could be just what the doctor ordered.  Both these teams are horrible in turnover margin, Oakland -8 and Chicago -10, so look for where the turnovers take place this week to be an important indicator of the final score.  In a game like this, along with the turnovers, field position is also very important and with Lane Kiffin saying this week that they intended to kick to Devin Hester, I predict at least one return touchdown(more if they are dumb enough to keep kicking it to him after the first TD), and that will be the difference as Chicago gets a win and, for the time being, stays in the hunt for an NFC Wild Card berth. (3) Atlanta +4 vs. Carolina.  Look, to me this game is simple.  Both teams will be able to move the ball on the ground, no question, but who will be able to move it through the air?  This may seem like blasphemy, or idiocy(is that even a word?), but you have to give the nod to Joey Harrington over either Matt Moore or Vinny Testaverde.  Keep in mind that Atlanta had Carolina beat earlier this year before DeAngelo Hall lost his mind trying to cover Steve Smith, and I can't believe that will happen again.  Roddy White is emerging for the Falcons as a legitimate deep threat and Harrington should have plenty of time to find him as Carolina has a league low 7 sacks.  Testaverde, on the other hand, will have his hands full with John Abraham who has 6 sacks by himself and will look to prey on the hobbled ageless wonder, and if Carolina is forced to start Matt Moore, really look out because the youngster did not look good in his only playing time this year and most rookies do not respond well to being pressured.  I actually believe that Atlanta may go into Bank of America Stadium and beat Carolina, who is winless at home this year, but to be safe take the Falcons plus four.  (4) New York Giants +1 vs. Dallas.  The Giants will be looking for revenge, and a share of first in the NFC East, when Dallas visits.  In the week one loss Dallas put up 45 on the Giants, and you will never see another blog entry from me if that happens again this week.  Since halftime in Week 3, the Giants have given up only 65 points in five and a half games while averaging over 4 sacks per game since only getting Romo once in week 1.  Learning the new defensive scheme, along with an in shape Michael Strahan have made New York the # 1 sacking team as well as # 7 in total defense.  I know that Dallas has lots of weapons, both ground and air, and perhaps on paper they should win this game, but as we all know games are not played on paper, but rather inside television sets.  Eli Manning is looking to finally prove he can be the leader of this team for a full season, and without the presence of Tiki Barber to question his ability to do so, he has been solid this season; not to mention, Dallas will not be able to cover the guy everyone would be talking about if it weren't for the now "happy camper" in New England, Randy Moss, and that is Plaxico Burress.  This guy never practices anymore, but every week it seems he just comes out and catches touchdowns.  You add Brandon Jacobs, now healthy, averaging 5.6 yards per carry and the Giants have become a somewhat formiddable offense.  This is the game of the year in the NFC thus far, and look for a resurgent Giant defense to be just good enough to slow down a powerful Cowboy offense, while the New York offense will be more than capable of taking advantage of a questionable Dallas pass defense then pound away with the running game late, winning a close, well played game. (5) Indianapolis -3.5 vs. San Diego.  The Colts come in a little banged up, but Tony Dungy will have his team aware that they are nursing a one game lead over Tennessee in the division and can't afford a letdown after the tough loss to the Patriots.  San Diego got torched by Adrian "all day" Peterson last week, and it won't be any easier for them this week as they face off against Joseph Addai without Luis Castillo, lost for the year.  Reggie Wayne has been superb as the main target in place of Marvin Harrison, and the Colts offense as a whole has again been great all season.  San Diego's defense on the other hand, what a difference a year makes, as they are 25th in total defense.  For the Chargers, the gameplan is simple, run the football.  Four times San Diego has run more than they have passed, 4-0, which makes them 0-4 when Rivers has to be relied on to lead the team to victory.  For all the talk this year about Bob Sanders and the Colts vastly improved defense, they are still giving up 4 yards per carry and rank 15th overall against the run, which you would think should allow the Chargers to run the ball, wrong.  Last week, Minnesota dictated what San Diego could do offensively by flat out not allowing them to run the ball and daring them to take advantage of their 32nd ranked pass defense.  Philip Rivers was not up to the task and they threw the ball 42 times running it only 20, and they lost.  This week, the Chargers' own inability to stop the Colts offense will again dictate that they throw the ball as they are playing from behind the whole game, more throws than runs equals a Chargers loss.  Indianapolis should win this game pretty easily, at least a touchdown, more likely double digits.

RECAP: the five picks-KC-3, Chicago-3.5, Atlanta +4, NY Giants +1, and Indianapolis -3.5.  See ya next week and you won't need luck, because these picks are as good as Gold. (get it, Gabriel Gold)