So you're a Larry Johnson owner and you're considering your third overall pick in the first round pick a bust?  Maybe you bought in to the hype that Steven Jackson was the sure bet at the number two pick.  And if you drafted number one, you were guaranteed a championship with LT on your team, although that's looking kind of dim too.  Maybe you're neither, and you're sitting pretty with one of your late first round picks, or a 6th round stud like LaMont Jordan.  Regardless of where you stand, don't expect the current production of the top three runningbacks to continue.  In fact, I predict it ends this week.  So if you've got them, start them, and if you don't have them, the time to buy is now.

It would be hard to buy low on LaDanian Tomlinson with his hype, and it's not like he's doing bad.  Like I said at the beginning of the year, if Tomlinson doesn't put up 40 points a week, he's a bust based on the pre-season hype.  If you are lucky enough to find an owner who will part with him, then go for it.  LT has gone up against two tough defenses, and might have another tough match up this week.  However, if 12 points a week is his rough period, then maybe he really can live up to all of the hype.

The big guy you should go after is Larry Johnson.  There was concern at the start of the season over Johnson.  First we had the hold out.  Then we had the injury concerns.  No one wanted to believe that Larry Johnson could be the #3 running back in fantasy football this year.  I believed it before the season, and I still believe it now.  Here is the problem.  In two games, LJ has only carried 26 times for 98 yards.  That's an average of 3.77 yards per carry.  If the Chiefs gave him a standard 30 carries a game, then you're looking at 11 fantasy points just off rushing yards alone, not including the 4 or 5 receiving points he'd probably get, and maybe a touchdown thrown in.  I believe Johnson can net you over 20 points a week, and now that Herm Edwards is giving him more carries, I believe this will happen soon.  The problem was that Herm Edwards most likely was scared from all of the bad press on his over-usage of Johnson.  If Johnson goes down with an injury, the Chiefs are screwed, and it's all going to fall on Edwards because of the perception that Edwards is running him too much.  There is no other option in Kansas City.  Their passing game is brutal, and they don't have a good back up running back.  Larry Johnson is their main weapon.  You might as well use him and risk being without him, rather than just taking him out voluntarily and placing the game in the hands of Damon Huard.  Johnson owners weren't looking for 8 points a week from their first round pick.  If you can deal for him, then by all means, do it.  Trade a first rounder for him.  You'll probably have to do a 2 for 2 deal, maybe throwing in a wide receiver swap to strengthen the deal.  It's worth it.  After this week he takes off and you'll never be able to buy him this low again.

Steven Jackson is another first round "bust", although it's hard to say what is going on with Jackson.  One issue could be that he is only getting 20 carries a game.  He's averaging just over 3 yards a carry, which is a bad average for an elite running back.  I expected the Rams offense to be much better than they are.  They haven't gone up against good run defenses.  San Francisco gave up 161 yards to Arizona, then held Jackson to 60 yards on 21 carries.  He has 10 total fantasy points, and you've got to expect that his fantasy owners are frustrated, especially since he is a must start guy, so he is basically holding teams hostage.  Do you think those teams would be willing to get rid of their problem for a first round running back?  Do you think Jackson will break out, possibly this week?  I do too.

The best weapon you can use in any fantasy sport is panic.  Owners panic if they start off 1-1 or 0-2.  If they have a week where they only score 50 points they'll panic.  Panic only leads to stupid moves.  In one of my leagues, someone dropped Eli Manning after week one.  I grabbed him and stashed him on my bench, planning to use an Eli Manning/Tony Romo combo.  In another league I'm in, someone dropped Santana Moss for Shaun McDonald.  Granted, McDonald has 22 points to Moss' 10 points, but we're talking about dropping a #1 receiver for a #4 receiver, and that's on the real life depth charts.  It's only an 8 team league, but we start 3 wide receivers, meaning that we start just as many as a normal 12 team league would start.

Take advantage of the panic of other people.  Ask around and see if anyone wants to get rid of their problem first round picks.  Buy low on guys like Jackson and Johnson.  Sell high on guys like LaMont Jordan.  I think Jordan would be good the rest of the season, but if you're telling me that some crazy owner would trade Steven Jackson for LaMont Jordan, just because Jordan is the #2 running back after 2 weeks, then I'd go for it.  In one of my leagues I have Larry Johnson and LaMont Jordan, and I'm trying to deal Jordan and Derrick Ward for Steven Jackson.  Am I going to get him for that price?  Probably not, although I pitched Jordan and Ward up a ton, so that will help.  However, I've got LenDale White, DeShawn Wynn, and Marshawn Lynch also on my team, so I can swap out one of those two backs for any of these three.  The reason?  Jackson's potential is easily worth LaMont Jordan and Marshawn Lynch, and I think they're both capable of 15-20 points a week.  Send a starter offer, pitch up your players, and if they decline, up the offer a bit and see if they bite.  I happen to have an advantage in the fact that I have 6 running backs and the guy who has Jackson only has two (never mind depth issues, we start a flex position in this league.)

With that being said, here are some of my potential sleeper studs and busted duds.  Try and pry some of them away from someone's bench, or get rid of them while their value is high.

SLEEPER STUDS

Quarterback - I gave you Romo and Roethlisberger at the start of the year.  I got Romo in the eight round in most of my drafts, and Roethlisberger around pick 115.  Now that Romo is the #2 guy, and Roethlisberger isn't far behind, it may be hard to acquire them.  Here are two new guys:  David Garrard and Matt Schaub.  I like Schaub the best.  How great of a story is he?  Plays backup to Michael Vick, is hyped as a guy who can start for any team, finally gets traded to the Texans and given an opportunity to start, and who would imagine that after 3 seasons of "He could start anywhere" we actually see him do well as a starter.  He's owned by about half of ESPN leagues, but he currently ranks as the #11 quarterback.  He will take a hit with Andre Johnson out, but that should hopefully be just one week.  From everything I've read and seen on this guy, he is for real.  If you need quarterback help, pick him up.  Garrard is one spot above him as the #10 quarterback, but probably won't be a good pick up until week 5 (at Denver in week 3, bye in week 4.)  The problem with Jacksonville the past few seasons is that they have deep threat receivers, and had a quarterback who couldn't get the ball to those receivers (Leftwich.)  Garrard can get the ball to the receivers, and personally I think Jacksonville will be playing from behind a lot this season, meaning more passing late in the game.  I think Garrard could be a low end starter, or a solid backup.  I've got him as my backup in a few of my leagues.  My big sleeper right now is Matt Leinart.  How can you have the talent surrounding him and not get a great amount of production out of him?  He'll continue to improve, and might become a #1 QB.

Running Back - DeShawn Wynn and Derrick Ward are the first two waiver wire backs of the season, and I like them both.  Ward averages 6.3 yards per carry so far, and will probably keep the starter job when Brandon Jacobs returns.  He could easily put up 15-20 points a week on a consistent basis.  Wynn just got the starting job over Brandon Jackson, and looked much better than Jackson in the game on Sunday.  These two backs are unproven right now, which is a bonus.  Most fantasy players only like to take chances on proven players, which is why Ward and Wynn may be owned, but probably aren't starting, and probably aren't ranked high by their owners.  If you are in a shallow league and they aren't owned, pick them up if you've got a spot.  In my opinion, they will easily be solid #2 options.  Another guy I like is Marshawn Lynch.  He ran with force against the Steelers, and could be a first rounder next season.  Get him now while he's still playing the tough defenses.  His value will rise after this week.  Finally, I like LenDale White.  He will get the goal line carries in Tennessee, and might even take more of Chris Brown's carries as the weeks go on.  He could turn in to a very valuable flex guy, or a solid #2.

Wide Receivers - Although I criticized someone for taking Shaun McDonald, he's a good sleeper, even as a #4 receiver.  I just wouldn't drop a #1 receiver for him.  Another guy I like is Ronald Curry.  Josh McCown and the Raiders are heavy on the pass, meaning a lot of opportunities for Curry.  So far he has 12 catches for 145 yards.  He had a drop off against the Broncos, who have one of the best passing defenses in the league, but expect a good season from him.  He can either come cheap via trade, or might even be un-owned (only owned in 82% of ESPN leagues.)  It's also not too late to get on the Brandon Marshall band-wagon.  He's the #2 receiver for Denver, and has 19 points after 2 weeks.  Not bad for a guy owned in 48% of leagues.

BUSTED DUDS

Quarterback - Don't buy in to the Derek Anderson hype, even after he has a good game against Oakland this weekend.  He's taking advantage of some of the worst defenses in the league, and is not as good as his numbers suggest.  I'd also sell high on Brett Favre.  He put up big numbers against the Giants, but the rest of his schedule is brutal.  I think Favre can get it done for the Packers, but he won't help your fantasy team as much.  He's a good backup, but if he is your starter, you need to look for a better option, and maybe consider selling him at a high point this week.

Running Back - Jamal Lewis is back!  Or maybe the Bengals are just a horrible team.  Lewis is a low end #2 running back at best, but more likely a flex guy, or a bye week option.  Don't let the performance against the Bengals fool you.  They couldn't tackle anyone.  You don't go from 30 yards in one game to over 200 in the next without help from the other defense.  Don't over-value Lewis because of this performance.  Another guy to avoid is Chris Brown.  He had a big outbreak in week one, but has since gone to splitting with LenDale White, and may even take a smaller role as White's role increases.  Jerious Norwood and Warrick Dunn are two guys to avoid as well.  The Falcons line is having problems, allowing 13 sacks in two games, and less than 100 rushing yards.  I don't see good things for these two backs, even if Leftwich takes over as the starting QB.

Wide Receiver - Braylor Edwards was a part of that outburst last week against Cincinnati, but I don't expect huge numbers from him.  I'd expect him to come up around 1000 yards, which is really only about 60 a game.  He's more of a #3 receiver, or a bye option if you start two receivers.  Considering that he has Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn as his quarterbacks, it's going to be hard for him to put up #2 numbers the rest of the season.  Antwaan Randle El is another guy to watch out for.  He is a very streaky player, mostly getting a lot of points from big breakout plays, which aren't guaranteed every week.  If you start him as your #2, expect a roller coaster ride.  Some weeks he could get 15-20 points, and other weeks he could get 3-5 points.  That being said, I like both of these guys this week.

Good luck to you in your fantasy leagues this week.  I'm hoping for my first 6-0 week of the season.  I'll have NCAA picks for the weekend tomorrow.