To start off the season, let me throw something out here.  I am not a professional handicapper.  I am like the majority of you all.  I work 40-50 hours a week, I follow sports in my free time (and sometimes in my not so free time), my retirement fund is set up through a 401K account, and I gamble on sports just to make a little extra money for a nice trip or for any other non-important payment.  I'm willing to bet that a lot of you are in the same boat as me.  Therefore, realize what you are getting here.  I am excellent at NFL, just because I follow the NFLmore than any sport.  Over the past few years I have followed college football more and more, but I wouldn't say it's on the NFL level yet for me, mainly because in order to be off on Sundays, I have to work every Saturday, which means I don't get to watch many college games.   So realize that my college picks may be good, but they also may not be good.  I usually get hot with a few teams each year.  Usually these teams are Virginia Tech, USC, Penn State, and the Big East, because I've been betting and following these teams longer.

 That being said, tonight is the kickoff to college football season, so here's what I've got:

 LSU -18.5 @ Mississippi St

Accuscore has LSU covering at a  57% rate.  Scouts Inc predicts LSU will win this game by three touchdowns.  In their last 6 meetings, LSU has out-scored Mississippi St 250-43.  Here is the thing I am worried about with this game.  Last season LSU won 48-17, but Mississippi St gotthe majority of their numbers in the second half against the 2nd and 3rd string defense of LSU.  LSU is in arguably the toughest conference in college football.  I don't think any team is coming out of this conference undefeated, but the team that wins it will probably have 1 loss.

LSU has a tough match against Virginia Tech next week, which means that after they take an early lead, they'll probably start resting their starters for next week.  LSU only returns 6 starters on offense, but 8 on defense.  Meanwhile, Mississippi State returns 9 starters on offense, but only 5 on defense.  As much as I want to take LSU in this one, the public is all over them, and I can see them resting their starters in the second half, allowing Mississippi State to make a back door cover.  However, I'm not 100% sure on this, enough to make a pick, but I do think LSU will put up points, and I do think Mississippi State will put up some late points, which makes the over a pretty good looking bet to me.

 My Pick:  Over 45.5

 Kent State @ Iowa State -4

Accuscore has Kent State covering at a 58.1% rate, and the public is all over Iowa State, with only 30% betting on Kent State.  This is the type of pick I took all season last year, and did very well with it.  Iowa State is only returning 4 starters to their offense, and 7 to their defense, while Kent State returns 8 starters on each side of the ball.  Iowa State only has 28 lettermen returning to their team, which means that they will most likely be going through an adjustment period early in the season.  I like Kent State to win this game outright, as Iowa State will be working out the kinks of their new offense, while Kent State will be rolling with the same team as last season.

My Pick:  Kent State ml +165

Buffalo @ Rutgers -32

Rutgers has a pretty easy schedule to start the season, going with Buffalo, Navy, then the big match up against Norfolk State in week three.  Buffalo has a pretty tough schedule to start things off, going with Rutgers, then Penn State in week three.  Rutgers returns 13 starters, 7 on offense, and 6 on defense.  Buffalo meanwhile returns 18 of 22 starters, 9 on each side of the ball.

Phil Steele has Buffalo as a team that will improve this season, based on their returning starters and lettermen.  Over the past 6 years, 19 teams have had 79% of their letterman, and 18+ starters returning, and of those 19 teams, 16, or 84.2%, went on to have a better record.  Buffalo is one of those teams this year.  I'm not saying they'll beat Rutgers, but I can see them putting up a good fight.

My Pick:  Buffalo +32 

Utah @ Oregon State -6.5

Oregon State returns 16 starters, and 62 lettermen.  This is a team that led the Pac-10 in sacks last season, and beat USC 33-31, which was after 14 USC points in the 4th quarter.  Oregon State returns players who were responsible for 41 of their 47 sacks last season.

Utah returns 10 starters on offense, but just 6 on defense, including losing their star cornerback Eric Weddle, who went to the Chargers with the 5th pick in the second round of the draft this year.  Both of these teams are good teams, but I give the advantage to Oregon State.  They're at home, they have a good offense, while Utah has lost a lot on defense, and they've got a good defense to neutralize Utah's offense.

My Pick:  Oregon State -6.5 

UNLV -6.5 @ Utah State

Both of these teams are coming off of horrible seasons, with a combined 3 wins between them.  Utah State returns all 11 starters on their defense, a defense that gave up 38.5 points per game last year.  They return 8 starters on offense.  Last year they had a brutal schedule, taking on 7 bowl teams, including Boise State, Utah, Arkansas, and Hawaii.

UNLV returns 8 starters on offense, and 6 on defense.  They were outscored 31-19 on average last season.  They bring 2 wins to the table, out of the three between these teams.  However, I chalk that up to the bad schedule Utah State had.  UNLV had -11 net turnovers last season.  169 teams have had double digit negative turnovers in the past 14 years, and the next season 69% have had better records thanks to their turnover luck changing.

UNLV is in their third season with coach Mike Sanford, and return more defensive starters this year than they have in the previous two years.  They also will look to improve on their 19.8 points per game on offense with 8 returning starters.  I'm taking UNLV to cover in this one.

My Pick:  UNLV -6.5 

Miami of Ohio @ Ball State -6

This is another game where the public is hammering one side, and Accuscore is on the other side.  Accuscore has Ball State covering about 60% of the time, while only 28% of the public is taking Ball State.

Ball State could be one of the best teams in the MAC this season.  They outgained teams in the MAC by 53.1 yards per game last season.  This year they return 7 starters on both sides of the ball.  Miami returns 8 on offense, and 6 on defense.  Last year they only returned 2 starters on defense, but did fairly well on limiting the yards they allowed.  Phil Steele has them as one of his most improved teams going in to this season, giving them a 69% chance of improving from last year.

As much as I like my method of taking the Accuscore/anti-public picks, I just have a gut feeling that Miami will win this game outright.

My Pick:  Miami of Ohio ml +180

Tulsa -3 @ LA Monroe

Tulsa enters this season with just 4 starters returning on offense, and 6 on defense.  They went 8-5 last season, but will be rebuilding this season.  Meanwhile, Monroe returns all 11 starters on offense, and 6 starters on defense.  They return 3 of their top 5 tacklers on defense, and should at least maintain their 22.3 points per game allowed.  They also should improve on their 21.8 points per game on offense, with a more experienced offense on the field.  I like ULM to win this against a rebuilding Tulsa team.

My Pick:  ULM ml +135 

To cap off the picks, I've got:

LSU/Miss St O 45.5
Kent State ML +165
Buffalo +32
Oregon State -6.5
UNLV -6.5
Miami of Ohio ML +180
ULM ML +135

For reference, I bought Phil Steele's college football guide this year, based on some good recommendations that it is the best and most accurate pre-season magazine over the past few years.  I plan on using this along with Accuscore for the first few weeks until Accuscore develops some solid trends for this season.  If you're a 40 hours a week, don't have time to handicap over 100 college football teams type of guy like me, then this is a pretty good cheat sheet, and has some good theories in it.

Good luck to everyone tonight!  It's good to have football back!