For the record, this is what I said about the Tampa Bay/San Francisco game:

"TAMPA BAY (-6.5) @ SAN FRANCISCO: TAMPA BAY 8-0

Another weak offense plays a solid NFC team. Shaun Hill has been excellent in his last two games. It took a Hector and Victor joke on ESPN to make me realize that this wasn't Shaun King, the backup of the Cardinals. Therefore, I can't chalk this up to luck. Tampa Bay shuts down the run, which will stop Frank Gore. They should take a solid lead, which will give Hill some garbage time numbers, but the Bucs will comeaway with the big win."

After noticing a lot of confidence on this game, whether it was people on this site considering it a lock, the public being over 80% on Tampa Bay, or just general thoughts and comments from other sources, I have decided to do a bit of research on this game to determine whether it is a trap bet.  First, let me go over my reasons for why this is a trap bet:

1.  The worst offense in the NFL against a good defense.  This was my initial view of the game, but really I just looked at the teams, looked at the spread, and figured it was an easy pick.

2.  Not only is the public 83% on Tampa Bay, but Tampa is the most parlayed team on the board this weekend.  Vegas doesn't build billion dollar casinos by paying out parlay bets.

3.  No one is really looking closer at this game, and these two teams.  I will do just that.

We saw the 49ers shut down Adrian Peterson a few weeks ago, which we all chalked up as a fluke.  The next week they held the Cincinnati offense to 61 rushing yards on 19 carries.  Who cares?  Rudi Johnson has struggled all season.

Don't be so quick to dismiss these games.

This year, while at home, the 49ers have allowed a 3.50 yards per carry average to opponents.   If you take out the 84 yard run by Chester Taylor, that number drops down to 3.12 yards per carry.  Opponents gained around 100 yards per game, but barely got that, most of the time as a team effort.  The best game was Arizona in week one, running for 151 yards on 38 carries, with 35 of those yards being scrambles by Matt Leinart.

So let's assume San Francisco's defense the past few weeks has been legit.  How does that affect their game with Tampa Bay?

Jeff Garcia's road numbers haven't been lights out this season.  In five games Garcia averages 199 yards and 1.2 touchdowns.  If you take out his game against Detroit he averages 170 yards and 1 touchdown.  The Bucs have benefitted from some great running by Ernest Graham, but if that struggles, can Garcia win it through the air?  Besides the Lions game, he barely topped 200 passing yards once, putting up 201 yards against the Seahawks.  If we assume that San Francisco can contain Ernest Graham, then the Tampa Bay offense doesn't look too good with Garcia leading the way, and this is all without considering his injury status.

Now let's take a look at the other side of the ball.  We assume that Tampa will shut down Frank Gore because everyone says Tampa Bay has a great defense.  Even I said this, but after reviewing their road games, I'm not so sure.

Tampa Bay has allowed a 4.01 yards per carry average to running backs while on the road this season.  Gore has been excellent the past few weeks, and is pretty much the focus of the 49ers offense.  New quarterback Shaun Hill has been very accurate, but my initial concerns were that Tampa would shut down the run and put the game in Hill's hands.  If the running game is working, the pressure will be removed from Hill, allowing him to find his open receivers, and opening the option for play action passes.

As far as fantasy goes, I still like a lot of people in this game.  Graham should get a score, but I don't think he's going over 100 yards.  Tampa's defense won't give up much, and may see some turnovers.  However, in the end I think this game could come down to a field goal, and a potential San Francisco victory.  I'm not trying to push anyone in to taking a specific side here.  All I'm saying is that this is a game you should do some heavy research on, because to me it looks like the biggest trap on the board this weekend.