To get a good idea of the history behind my NFL system, I am back tracking and calculating week one of the 2003-2006 seasons, in hopes of finding some solid trends to use.  Below is the data for week one of the 2006 season, using the 2005 end of the regular season stats.

MIA @ PIT:  PIT 6-2
Spread:  PIT -1.5:  WIN
System Pick:  PIT -1.5:  WIN

DEN @ STL:  DEN 8-0
Spread:  DEN -3.5:  LOSS
System Pick:  STL +3.5:  WIN

CIN @ KC:  KC 4-4
Spread:  CIN PK:  WIN
System Pick:  CIN PK:  WIN

BUF @ NE:  NE 4-4
Spread:  NE -10:  LOSS
System Pick:  BUF +10:  WIN

PHI @ HOU:  PHI 5-3
Spread:  PHI -6.5:  WIN
System Pick:  PHI -6.5:  WIN

NYJ @ TEN:  TEN 6-2
Spread:  TEN -2.5:  LOSS
System Pick:  TEN -2.5:  LOSS

SEA @ DET:  SEA 6-2
Spread:  SEA -7:  LOSS
System Pick:  SEA -7:  LOSS

NO @ CLE:  NO 4-3-1
Spread:  CLE -3.5:  LOSS
System Pick:  NO: +3.5:  WIN

ATL @ CAR:  CAR 5-3
Spread:  CAR -4.5:  LOSS
System Pick:  CAR -4.5:  LOSS

BAL @ TB:  TB 7-0-1
Spread:  BAL -2.5:  WIN
System Pick:  BAL -2.5:  WIN

DAL @ JAC:  JAC 6-1-1
Spread:  DAL -1.5:  LOSS
System Pick:  JAC +1.5:  WIN

SF @ ARI:  ARI 5-3
Spread:  ARI -10:  LOSS
System Pick:  ARI -10:  LOSS

CHI @ GB:  CHI 5-3
Spread:  CHI -4:  WIN
System Pick:  CHI -4:  WIN

IND @ NYG:  NYG 5-3
Spread:  IND -3:  WIN
System Pick:  NYG +3:  LOSS

MIN @ WAS:  WAS 6-2
Spread:  WAS -4:  LOSS
System Pick:  WAS -4:  LOSS

SD @ OAK:  SD 6-2
Spread:  SD -3:  WIN
System Pick:  SD -3:  WIN

The following numbers are the trends that we find here, as well as the best bets of the combined week ones:

8-0:  2-2 when taking the 8-0 team.
7-1:  N/A
6-2:  2-3 when taking the 6-2 team.  (8-5 overall.)
5-3:  2-3 when taking the 5-3 team.  2-2 when the 5-3 team is the favorite.  The favorite is 3-2.  (13-10-1, 9-4, and 15-8-1 overall.)
4-4:  1-1 when taking the favorite. (5-3-1 overall.)*  The Cinci/KC game was a pick, but Cinci had the better turnover ratio, which is my usual deciding factor in these 4-4 games.

After calculating the 2003 through 2006 seasons, the best bets are:

Take the 7-1 teams. (67%)
Take the 6-2 teams. (62%)
Take the favorites in the 5-3 games.  (65%)
Take the 5-3 teams.  (57%)
Take the 5-3 games when the pick is a favorite.  (69%)
Take the favorites in the 4-4 games.  (63%)

The 8-0 bets split.  There were no 7-1 bets, but there was a 7-0-1 bet that followed the system.  The 6-2 teams saw a bit of a drop off, but are pretty solid overall.  The 5-3 teams still hold strong betting the favorites.  The 4-4 picks are kind of a toss up every year, but I have noticed that the heavy dogs are 2-0, while the close favorites are just 3-3.  I will provide a detailed break down of each category in my final post on this subject, and give the suggestions for week one of the 2007 season.