To get a good idea of the history behind my NFL system, I am back tracking and calculating week one of the 2003-2006 seasons, in hopes of finding some solid trends to use.  Below is the data for week one of the 2005 season, using the 2004 end of the regular season stats.

OAK @ NE:  NE 8-0
Spread:  NE -7.5:  WIN
System Pick:  OAK +7.5:  LOSS

TEN @ PIT:  PIT 8-0
Spread:  PIT -7:  WIN
System Pick:  TEN +7:  LOSS

SEA @ JAC:  JAC 5-3
Spread:  JAC -3:  WIN
System Pick:  JAC -3:  WIN

NO @ CAR:  CAR 6-1-1
Spread:  CAR -7:  LOSS
System Pick:  CAR -7:  LOSS

CIN @ CLE:  CIN 7-1
Spread:  CIN -3.5:  WIN
System Pick:  CLE +3.5:  LOSS

CHI @ WAS:  WAS 6-2
Spread:  WAS -5.5:  LOSS
System Pick:  WAS -5.5:  LOSS

NYJ @ KC:  NYJ 7-1
Spread:  KC -3:  WIN
System Pick:  KC -3:  WIN

TB @ MIN:  MIN 5-3
Spread:  MIN -6:  LOSS
System Pick:  MIN -6:  LOSS

HOU @ BUF:  BUF 5-3
Spread:  BUF -6:  WIN
System Pick:  BUF -6:  WIN

DEN @ MIA:  DEN 7-1
Spread:  DEN -5:  LOSS
System Pick:  MIA +5:  WIN

STL @ SF:  STL 5-3
Spread:  STL -6.5:  LOSS
System Pick:  STL -6.5:  LOSS

DAL @ SD:  SD 8-0
Spread:  SD -4.5:  LOSS
System Pick:  DAL +4.5:  WIN

ARI @ NYG:  ARI 4-4
Spread:  NYG -3:  WIN
System Pick:  ARI +3:  LOSS

GB @ DET:  GB 5-3
Spread:  DET -3:  WIN
System Pick:  GB +3:  LOSS

IND @ BAL:  IND 5-3
Spread:  IND -3:  WIN
System Pick:  IND -3:  WIN

PHI @ ATL:  PHI 4-4
Spread:  PHI -1:  LOSS
System Pick:  ATL +1:  WIN

The following numbers are the trends that we find here, as well as the best bets of the combined week ones:

8-0:  2-1 when taking the 8-0 team.
7-1:  1-2 when taking the 7-1 team.  (4-2 overall.)
6-2:  0-1 when taking the 6-2 team.  (6-2 overall.)
5-3:  3-3 when taking the 5-3 team.  3-2 when the 5-3 team is the favorite.  The favorite is 4-2.  (11-7-1, 7-2, and 12-6-1 overall.)
4-4:  1-1 when taking the favorite. (4-2-1 overall.)

After calculating the 2003 through 2005 seasons, the best bets are:

Take the 8-0 teams.  (67%)
Take the 7-1 teams. (67%)
Take the 6-2 teams. (75%)
Take the favorites in the 5-3 games.  (67%)
Take the 5-3 teams.  (61%)
Take the 5-3 games when the pick is a favorite.  (78%)
Take the favorites in the 4-4 games.  (67%)

A slight drop off with the 5-3 picks, but I feel the trends are getting stronger.  Finally some action from the 8-0 picks.  One more year to analyze before we have our results.