To get a good idea of the history behind my NFL system, I am back tracking and calculating week one of the 2003-2006 seasons, in hopes of finding some solid trends to use.  Below is the data for week one of the 2004 season, using the 2003 end of the regular season stats.

IND @ NE: IND 5-3
Spread:  NE -3: PUSH
System Pick:  IND +3:  PUSH

TEN @ MIA: TEN 5-3
Spread:  TEN -3:  WIN
System Pick:  TEN -3:  WIN

JAC @ BUF: JAC 5-2-1
Spread:  BUF -3:  LOSS
System Pick:  JAC +3:  WIN

BAL @ CLE: CLE 5-3
Spread:  BAL -3:  LOSS
System Pick:  CLE +3:  WIN

DET @ CHI: DET 5-3
Spread:  CHI -1:  LOSS
System Pick:  DET +1:  WIN

SD @ HOU: SD 5-3
Spread:  HOU -5:  LOSS
System Pick:  SD +5:  WIN

SEA @ NO: SEA 4-4
Spread:  SEA -3: WIN
System Pick:  NO +3:  LOSS

CIN @ NYJ: NYJ 5-3
Spread:  NYJ -5.5:  WIN
System Pick:  NYJ -5.5:  WIN

TB @ WAS: TB 5-3
Spread:  WAS -3:  WIN
System Pick:  TB +3:  LOSS

ARI @ STL: STL 4-4
Spread:  STL -10.5:  LOSS
System Pick:  ARI +10.5:  WON

OAK @ PIT: OAK 4-3-1
Spread:  PIT -3.5:  LOSS
System Pick:  OAK +3.5:  WON

DAL @ MIN: MIN 6-2
Spread:  MIN -6.5:  WIN
System Pick:  MIN -6.5:  WIN

NYG @ PHI: PHI 6-2
Spread:  PHI -8.5:  WIN
System Pick:  PHI -8.5:  WIN

ATL @ SF: SF 6-2
Spread:  ATL -3:  LOSS
System Pick:  SF +3:  WIN

KC @ DEN: KC 5-3
Spread:  DEN -3:  WIN
System Pick:  KC +3:  LOSS

GB @ CAR: GB 6-2
Spread:  CAR -3:  LOSS
System Pick:  GB +3:  WIN

The following numbers are the trends that we find here, as well as the best bets of the combined week ones:

7-1:  N/A
6-2:  4-0 when taking the 6-2 team.  (6-1 overall.)
5-3:  5-2-1 when taking the 5-3 team.  2-0 when the 5-3 team is the favorite.  The favorite is 4-3-1.  (8-4-1, 4-0, and 8-4-1 overall.)
4-4:  1-1 when taking the favorite. (3-1-1 overall.)

After calculating the 2003 and 2004 seasons, the best bets are:

Take the 7-1 teams. (100%)
Take the 6-2 teams. (86%)
Take the favorites in the 5-3 games.  (67%)
Take the 5-3 teams.  (67%)
Take the 5-3 games when the pick is a favorite.  (100%)
Take the favorites in the 4-4 games.  (75%)

Encouraging numbers for the 6-2 picks.  I like the trend of picking the 5-3 pick if the selection is a favorite.  I'd like to see some more data on the 5-3 picks, so hopefully the 2005 and 2006 seasons can deliver.  The 2005 season is next.