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Aug 27
2007

System Analyzation: Points Scored

Posted by twilliams in Scorpions NFL SystemScorpionNFL SystemNFL

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This is my second post of the day, but this is something I have been looking at for a week or so, and I figured I would throw it out there.  As you know, one of my eight system stats is "Points Scored", which gives a good indication of the point scoring capabilities of your offense.  Recently I took a look at the "Net Points" of each team, to see the difference between the points scored and allowed.  What I found was pretty interesting, and could improve the system.  Take a look at the final division standings last year, and their net points:

 AFC East

New England - 12-4 (148 NP)
NY Jets - 10-6 (21)
Buffalo - 7-9 (-11)
Miami - 6-10 (-23)

AFC North

Baltimore - 13-3 (152)
Cincinnati - 8-8 (42)
Pittsburgh - 8-8 (38)
Cleveland - 4-12 (-118)

AFC South

Indianapolis - 12-4 (67)
Jacksonville - 8-8 (97)
Tennessee - 8-8 (-76)
Houston - 6-10 (-99)

AFC West

San Diego - 14-2 (189)
Kansas City - 9-7 (16)
Denver - 9-7 (14)
Oakland - 2-14 (-164)

NFC East

Philadelphia - 10-6 (70)
Dallas - 9-7 (75)
NY Giants - 8-8 (-7)
Washington - 5-11 (-69)

NFC North

Chicago - 13-3 (172)
Green Bay - 8-8 (-65)
Minnesota - 6-10 (-45)
Detroit - 3-13 (-93)

NFC South

New Orleans - 10-6 (91)
Carolina - 8-8 (-35)
Atlanta - 7-9 (-36)
Tampa Bay - 4-12 (-142)

NFC West

Seattle - 9-7 (-6)
St Louis - 8-8 (-14)
San Francisco - 7-9 (-114)
Arizona - 5-11 (-75)

The team with the most net points had the better record in all but four instances.  Jacksonville had more than Indianapolis, Minnesota had more than Green Bay, Arizona had more than San Francisco, and Dallas had more than Philadelphia.

After seeing this, I'm considering changing the system stat from "Points Scored" to "Net Points."  The first step will be to analyze as many seasons as I can to see if the same result holds true.  The next step will be to adjust the games from last year to see if this would have caused a dramatic change in the system.  My guess is that it could provide a slight improvement, but no huge change.  I'm also going to see how teams improve or decline from year to year based on their net points.  I'll have another update on this tomorrow. 



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