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Oct 05
2007

Super Size My Fantasy Team

Posted by twilliams in Tim WilliamsNFLFootballFantasy

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Every year I hear something in the news about how fantasy football is nothing but a legalized form of gambling on sports, no different than actually placing money on the outcome of a game.  This either comes from handicappers trying to justify sports betting, or from another source who just wants to get rid of fantasy sports all together.  I can only imagine this other source would be the "Bosses and Wives Association", since these are the people who benefit the least from fantasy sports.

Maybe it's a stretch to call fantasy sports a form of gambling.  Anyonewho calls themselves a handicapper would give you the "All of the work isn't worth the small return" line.  Me?  I'm no handicapper.  I'm a fantasy sports player who happens to be good at picking games.  I wouldn't say that fantasy sports is the biggest form of gambling to slip under the radar though.  That prize belongs to McDonalds.

This week launched the Monopoly game at McDonalds, where you can collect game pieces in hopes of winning huge cash prizes.  I'm not in the bandwagon with the health nuts who can't stand McDonalds.  I watch Super Size Me and it makes me want french fries.  I don't think I normally eat McDonalds more than 3-4 times a month though, which is good or bad, depending on what bandwagon you are in.  Since the game launched Tuesday I have been to McDonalds twice.  My wife has been twice, and my dad has been three times, although once he just got a large drink while tagging along with my wife.  Everytime I go to McDonalds the place is packed.  I can't think of a form of gambling that could be worse.

In order to win at fantasy football you have to put some time and effort in to researching your team, unless you know nothing about fantasy football, in which case a championship is guaranteed.  If you lose, you just lost that time and effort, and maybe some cash, depending on what type of league you are in.  In gambling you do the same amount of work, and risk money in the process.  However, with McDonalds you are spending $6 a meal, getting 6 game pieces, 5 of which you already have, and the worst part is that if you lose, not only do you spend money on the food, but you get fat eating it.  Like I said, I'm not in the health nut bandwagon, but I'm also not in the "Let's sue McDonalds because I got fat" bandwagon.

The worst part is that the game pieces are heavily over-rated.  I've received 12 game pieces so far, and 4 of them are the B&O Railroad.  I got one of the two needed for a million dollars, meaning there is no way I will see Boardwalk this year.  I also got a few of the green pieces, although I have no idea which one I need to win that prize, but I know that I will throw up if I have to eat as many chicken selects as would be needed to win the prize.

With the NFL bye weeks underway, players under performing, and injuries taking place right and left, many of you are headed to the McWaiver wires of your fantasy leagues in hopes of cashing in big.  The waiver process is often like the Monopoly game at McDonalds, although it's actually possible to win in this game.  Let's take a look at this week's additions, Monopoly style.

Boardwalk and Park Place

Cadillac Williams is the first running back to go down for the season, leaving us with our first waiver wire platoon.  Luckily for me, I picked up Ernest Graham last week, assuming Cadillac would lose playing time to him after his week 3 performance.  In this situation we have to figure out which one is more valuable than the other.  Personally, I think Graham takes home the Boardwalk award.  Everyone has Michael Pittman, they just call him Leon Washington and Ladell Betts on their teams.  Ernest Graham will get the goal line carries, and that equals the big points.  Pittman will get yardage, but he probably won't get many scores, taking his value down below Graham.

You've Won Free Fries

Basically this is the "You get to come play again" section.  In fantasy football this is the running back on waivers who will be getting a start because the normal starter went down.  Last week it was Brian Leonard subbing for Steven Jackson.  This week it is Kenton Keith subbing for Joseph Addai.  Maybe if you desperately need running back help these guys will work for you this week, but chances are you'll be back playing the waiver wires soon when they go back to the bench.  Take a guy who has long term value, like Graham or Pittman, before going with these guys.  If you've got running back depth, don't even waste your time and just fill other needs.

North Carolina and Pacific Avenue

These are the green pieces I got today, meaning that if I happen to get the third piece, I win $50,000.  Obviously anyone playing is shooting for the million dollar prize, but everyone would settle for a $50,000 prize.  Likewise, anyone in fantasy football is looking for a Steve Smith or Chad Johnson type of receiver, but we would settle for a Dwayne Bowe or a Patrick Crayton.  These are guys who could be productive #2 or #3 wide receivers for your team, and who are on waivers in most of my leagues this week.  They're not going to net you the big prize, but you might end up with something that will satisfy you, and I'm not talking about french fries.

The B&O Railroad

This is that piece that makes you physically ill after you get it for the hundredth time.  These pieces are a dime a dozen.  This is where the waiver wire gets tough.  Every week a random receiver or running back has a good week and sees a spike in ownership.  The problem is that these guys are a dime a dozen, and probably won't repeat their value.  Justin Fargas ran for about a thousand yards last week against Miami, but LaMont Jordan will probably return after the bye week, and Dominic Rhodes should be back by then, leaving Fargas as the #3 guy.  James Jones caught a touchdown last week for the Packers, but he's third behind Donald Driver and Greg Jennings, and probably won't score too often this season.

Now you may ask, what is the difference between a big week from Dwayne Bowe, Patrick Crayton, or Ernest Graham, and the guys on the B&O Railroad?  The difference is the role.  Crayton, Bowe, and Graham are the Short Line Railroad, the guys everyone is going for when they add the break out stars from the week before.  The thing you need to look for is the role of the player.  Crayton is the number two receiver in Dallas, a productive offense where Terrell Owens will receive most of the coverage.  Bowe is the only receiver in Kansas City, and now that Larry Johnson is coming back to life, he will gain in value.  Graham is the goal line back in Tampa Bay, with no competition, despite reports of the Bucs going after everyone from Priest Holmes to Barry Sanders as a replacement for Cadillac.

When you're adding that stud from the previous week, ask yourself "Will he do this every week?"  Were his stats a part of one big play, or were they a result of the quarterback going his way all night?  Is he a guy who will get a lot of playing time, or was he just in the right place?  We tend to over-react in fantasy football, because every game matters, but it doesn't hurt to take a moment and think about how important the move really is to you.

Finally, if you can't find anyone on the waiver wire that you like, there's my favorite aspect of fantasy football, and that is trading.  This week I am targeting a few certain people:

Quarterback:  I'm going after Drew Brees or Mark Bulger as my backup QB.  In most of my leagues I have Tony Romo or Jon Kitna as my starter, with guys like Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger as backups.  A deal of Roethlisberger for Bulger would look great to the owner of Bulger, after the poor production, injury, and the benching in favor of Gus Frerotte.  Let's just think about the reason for all of this.  Marc Bulger has broken ribs.  I repeat, broken ribs.  We hear about athletes being injured all the time.  Injuries are a part of the game, especially in football.  People like Bulger play through the pain, and it kind of downgrades the injury.  Last week I was playing golf, stepped in a hole on the course, turned my ankle, and my leg hurt for a day.  Imagine how Bulger feels, having to launch passes with the pain of broken ribs.  I'm not looking at him as a starter, so I can afford to keep him around, and if he gets healthy and returns to the elite status, then I've got two starting quarterbacks late in the season.

As for Brees, I still think he can be a #1 QB this year.  I just dealt for him in one of my leagues, trading Ronnie Brown for him.  Call me crazy for trading the #1 ranked running back for Brees, but personally I think Brown is over-rated.  Now I'm not saying Brown is bad, but he won't put up 200 yards a game like the last two weeks, against two horrible defenses, and I'm not starting him consistently over Larry Johnson and Willis McGahee.  As for Brees, he is consistent this year with his stats from the past two seasons, except for his touchdown to interception ratio.  He currently has a 1 to 7 ratio, after having a 26 to 11 ratio last year, and a 24 to 15 ratio in 2005.  Which do you think tells the story?  The last three games, or the 32 games before that?  He can't be any worse than my other quarterback, Philip Rivers, and personally I feel Brees has a better chance of turning things around.

Running Back:  I've always liked the starters who aren't performing well, or who are injured, but not in the serious manner.  Last week I had LaMont Jordan on my sell high list.  I dealt him and Plaxico Burress for Larry Johnson in a shallow league, and stupidly passed up on a Jordan/Brandon Marshall for Marshawn Lynch/Dwayne Bowe deal in a much deeper league.  With his injury, the return of Domanic Rhodes in a week or two, and the general skepticism that surrounds Jordan, his value takes a fall.  I have him in all of my leagues except for one, but I doubt that owner will want to trade him back without wanting another running back in return.

Some other guys that I like are Ahman Green, Thomas Jones, and LenDale White.  I was able to pick Green up off of waivers in a shallow league, and I'm trying to trade for him in other leagues.  Jones is a good buy low candidate, since he was probably drafted in the second round of your league, and is probably not performing up to expectations of the owner who drafted him.  Jones struggled against two good rushing defenses in New England and Baltimore, had a good week against the horrible Miami defense, and struggled last week against Buffalo, but was only given 12 carries.  Jones started off slow last September, rushing for 3 yards a carry, then exploded the rest of the season for over 4 yards a carry.  As for LenDale White, he is getting the goal line carries in Tennessee and is probably the most valuable running back on their team.  He's good for at least 12 points a week, and is a solid bye week replacement that could come at a reasonable price.

Finally, a guy I was low on heading in to the season was Maurice Jones-Drew.  I didn't think he would match his touchdown production from last season, and he wasn't worth a second or third round pick to me.  Four weeks and 9 points later it looks like I was right.  Now I didn't think he would be this bad, so he now looks like an incredibly cheap option to go after.  I'm trying to land him in my family league, going for an Ernest Graham/Eli Manning for Jones-Drew/Drew Brees swap.  He was dropped in a shallow league I'm in, and I've got a waiver claim in for him.

Wide Receivers:  I know I bang on Marquis Colston a lot, but it's probably because I think he is over-rated.  He was going along with the top receivers in the draft this year, but I don't think he's any better than a solid #2 receiver in fantasy, as well as in real life.  With the Saints struggling, Colston's value may have dropped below a #2 receiver, making him a good option.  I already think Brees will turn things around, and that can only benefit Colston.  I also like Calvin Johnson as a buy low due to his injury.  He's shown flashes of the skill that gave him all of his hype in the draft, but his injury really stalled things.  He might miss another week, and if he's on a team where an owner is struggling, you might be able to pry him away and stash him on your bench until he is healthy.  Once he is healthy, he would be a good #2 option.  If you can try to get Andre Johnson from someone who needs immediate wide receiver help, do it.  Stash him on your bench, and when he returns you have a #1 wide out on your hands, especially with the way Matt Schaub is playing.

I hope everyone has a winning week in fantasy.  I'm hoping that bye weeks and an injury to Joseph Addai don't kill me in my undefeated league this week.  I'm hoping to go at least 4-2 in my leagues this week.

(NOTE:  I wrote this on Wednesday, but due to being sick/holding it off until I completed some trades just so no one would read my intentions, it's not coming out until now.  I'm going to try and write this article on Tuesday/Wednesday from now on.)

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