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Feb 02
2008

Super Bowl Prop Bets

Posted by twilliams in Tim WilliamsSuper BowlPropsPlayer PropsNFL

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Disclaimer:  When I bet player props, I usually just lay 1% on each bet.  My book offered over 150 props, and I cut it down to 25, but I'm not sure if I want to cut it down further.  I usually bet 5% per football game, so these props equal about five bets, which I am comfortable with.  I'll try to include some insight to these so you can decide if you agree or disagree, allowing you to trim down the options if you want fewer plays.

Tom Brady Props:

Tom Brady UNDER 25.5 completions (+100)
Tom Brady NO interceptions (-115)

I think Brady will have a solid game, thus the no interceptions.  However, I think the books are going to jack up the line on most Patriots props, especially the ones involving Brady, because people don't want to bet the under.  I like the completions prop because it pays out even money, and 26 completions is a lot.  Brady has only topped that total seven times this season.

Lawrence Maroney Props:

Lawrence Maroney OVER 81.5 rushing yards (-105)
Lawrence Maroney OVER 7.5 receiving yards (-110)

I think Maroney will have a solid game.  I think he will end up with around 10-15 receiving yards (AccuScore projects 10) and close to 100 yards on the ground.

Brandon Jacobs/Ahmad Bradhsaw Props:

Bradon Jacobs +20.5 rushing yards vs Lawrence Maroney (-115)
Ahmad Bradshaw OVER 45.5 rushing yards (+105)
Ahmad Bradshaw OVER 1 reception (+135)
Ahmad Bradshaw to score a TD (+240)
Brandon Jacobs to score a TD (+120)

Note that the last two bets go hand in hand.  I think one of these players will score.  I think Jacobs has the better shot, but I will put money on Bradshaw just incase there is a long play.  I think Bradshaw will get at least one reception, which means that the over bet is either win or push.  I'm taking the over for rushing yards for Bradshaw because of his big play capabilities, and I'm taking Jacobs because 20.5 yards is a lot, and Jacobs is a solid runner.

Plaxico Burress Props:

Plaxico Burress +19.5 receiving yards vs Randy Moss (-115)
Plaxico Burress +5.5 receiving yards vs Wes Welker (-105)
Plaxico Burress OVER 5 receptions (+115)
Plaxico Burress OVER 72.5 receiving yards (+100)

Basically I think Burress will have a big game.  I think he'll get around six catches and 100 yards.  Surprisingly the bet I am least comfortable with here is the Welker bet.  Welker gets a ton of receptions and yardage.

Other Receiver Props:

Amani Toomer +22.5 receiving yards vs Wes Welker (-115)
Donte Stallworth -9.5 receiving yards vs Steve Smith (-115)
Randy Moss UNDER 5 receptions (+170)
Steve Smith UNDER 2.5 receptions (+145)
Amani Toomer OVER 50.5 receiving yards (-115)
Donte Stallworth OVER 42.5 receiving yards (-115)

I don't think Steve Smith will have such a good game, thus the bets against him.  I think a lot of the coverage will go to Moss and Welker, which leaves Stallworth open for a big game.   I also think Toomer will put up solid numbers with a lot of attention going to Burress this week.  I considered taking Jabar Gaffney props, but I didn't like the lines and the prices.

Other Props:

Lawrence Tynes UNDER 6.5 points (+105)
Giants OVER 2.5 touchdowns (-110)
Giants more rushing yards (+120)
Giants more sacks (+160)
Both teams to combine for OVER 206.5 rushing yards (-115)
Both teams to combine for UNDER 53.5 rushing attempts (-115)
Both teams to combine for OVER 714.5 total yards (-115)

I think Tynes will kick a field goal and three extra points.  I think the Giants will score three touchdowns.  I think Bradshaw and Jacobs will out-rush the Patriots duo, about 125-110.  For that reason I think both teams will go over the 206.5 rushing yards.  The Giants have a great pass rush, so I'm giving them the sacks bet because I like the value.  I think the rushing attempts is high.  I can see around 50, so that bet will be close.  Finally I think the quarterbacks will combine for over 500 yards, and the running backs will combine for around 230, which is why I like the over in the yardage.

Best of luck to everyone tomorrow! 



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