I'm surprised to see that in the ESPN Sportsnation poll only 61% of fans have the Patriots beating the Giants.  This game is a classic case where people pick based on how the teams have played vs. pre-conceived expectations and not objective facts.

 

The Giants obviously have pulled off 3 upsets in the playoffs.  They have totally exceeded expectations 4 games in a row.  They outplayed the Bucs, Cowboys and Packers, but the fact is the Cowboys and Packers did have the ball with the chance to win the game.  The Giants got two close wins over good teams.

 

A lot of people expected the Patriots to win by at least 14 points over the Chargers and Jaguars, but they "only" won 9 and 11.  But take a step back.  Most people would agree that the Chargers and Jaguars are as good or even better than the Cowboys or Packers.  If the Chargers / Jaguars faced the Cowboys / Packers the AFC team probably would have been a 2 or 3 point favorite.

 

So objectively the Patriots beat 2 teams by an average of 10 points while the Giants beat 2 lesser teams by an average of 3.5 points.  

 

The Giants covered the spread by 10 points and the Patriots have not covered either game.  I definitely would not be surprised if the Giants cover the spread, but win the game?  I think the facts are clear:  the Patriots can play poorly and still beat teams by 10.  The Giants play perfectly and beat them by 3. 

 

So my warning to the nearly 40% of people who like the Giants to win - don't let the fact that the Giants have exceeded expectations override the fact that the Patriots have been the more impressive team.