Before getting to the NFL picks, I'd like to review the NCAA system for those who missed it.  Yesterday was a great day for the NCAA system.  One of the anti-favorite trends went 7-4.  The favorite trend went 4-3, if you count Oklahoma on Friday.  The "mega-favorites" went 3-0.  The other group of anti-favorites went a decent 5-5.  The only bad spot was the big underdogs, which went 1-3.  Overall, the picks from the system this week went 20-15.

I've found a few new trends for the system that I will go over next week.  One trendis a good method of picking underdogs, which went 5-3 on the moneyline this week, and would have been 6-2 if Ohio would have won (they blew the lead and lost by 1 point.)  I've also found a few trends using public betting data.  The favorites this past week were 2-0 when the public was betting them less than 70% and 2-3 when the public was betting them more than 70% of the time.  Next week I will have three trends that have been producing, plus one trend of upset picks.  These trends have gone 68%, 68%, and 83% in the first two weeks.

As for the NFL picks, I did a write up earlier in the week on the games, however, some things have changed, and I can't say that this is going to be the same.  Plus, some games I just gave opinions on the game in general because I didn't have a pick yet.  These are my final picks, using the system, public betting data, and all of my relevant fantasy knowledge that I can apply.  On with the picks:

IND (-7) @ HOU:  HOU 3-3-2

I was flipping back and forth on this one.  This is by far the biggest game in franchise history for the Texans.  They're off to a 2-0 start, and could go 3-0 if they beat their division rivals at home, a team who they hold a 1-9 record against.  Andre Johnson is out, which is what drew me away from taking the Texans at one point during the week.  However, I personally don't believe there is much value in wide receivers.  Sure, Johnson is good, which is why I drafted him in most of my fantasy leagues.  However, Matt Schaub will find Owen Daniels (good sleeper TE this week), and Jacoby Jones.  He will just be without his favorite target.  How will this hurt the defense though, which has been one of the best defenses in the league so far?  Answer:  it won't.  The loss of Andre Johnson really only affects one area of the team: the passing game.  If they are going to win this game, they're going to have to run the ball, and stop the run.  The passing game is about third or fourth on my list of priorities.

The public is all over Indianapolis, betting them 85% of the time.  I don't know if this has to do with Andre Johnson being out, but they have been getting hammered all week.  The line has moved to -7, from -5 at some places at the start of this week.  I like that the Texans are big home dogs, in a game that they need to win much more than the Colts.  The Texans will play the Colts very strong, and may come away with a win, but I'm taking them to cover in this one.

My Pick:  Houston +7 

SD (-6.5) @ GB:  GB 6-1-1

I said I liked Green Bay for the upset earlier in the week.  66% of the public is betting on San Diego, and the line has gone from -5 to -6.5 since my last post.  So why am I considering switching to San Diego?  For one, I think the Chargers have a big bounce back week this week.  They're off to a bad start, Rivers and Tomlinson have under-achieved so far, and I think those two players especially will bounce back.  The Packers have a good defense, but it is largely unproven, and will be put to a big test this week.  They allowed a 6.0 average per carry to Derrick Ward last week, which looks good for LT owners this week.  Even though they are big dogs on the road, and off to a bad start, I'm taking the Chargers for a bounce back week, and I think that Tomlinson will run well against the Packers, and Rivers will get in to a nice groove (I'm starting him in one of my leagues over Tony Romo.)

My Pick:  San Diego -6.5

MIN @ KC (-3):  MIN 6-1-1

Another game that I'm going totally against my early week predictions.  I said earlier this week:

"Kansas City is one of the worst teams in the league, and shouldn't be favored over anyone.  Minnesota had the best rushing defense last year, and they are continuing that this season, allowing only 76 rushing yards per game.  Considering that the Chiefs main weapon is Larry Johnson, I'd say that bodes well for the Vikings.  I may even start LaMont Jordan over Larry Johnson this week in one of my fantasy leagues."

Here is what changed:  I don't like Minnesota's offense, the Chiefs are running well, just not enough, and I am starting Larry Johnson this week.  Minnesota has to decide between Tavaris Jackson, Brooks Bollinger, and Kelly Holcomb as their QB this week.  That just says 10-6 and playoffs to me.  The Chiefs have only given Larry Johnson 26 carries, and he has run at a 3.77 yards per carry rate.  He wants 40 this week, and I think they will give him at least 30.  I'd expect a low scoring game, but I think the Chiefs will do most of the scoring.  You've probably missed your window to get Larry Johnson in your fantasy leagues.  As for me, I traded LaMont Jordan and Plaxico Burress for Larry Johnson and Reggie Brown.  Jordan has a nice game against Cleveland this week, but he has a tough schedule later in the year, and after this week his value could drop.  Plax is too inconsistent for me, and I'm selling while he's on the top of the wide receivers list, rather than when he is on the side of a milk carton after a big game.  Johnson and Brown are bounce back players, plus I now have a running back duo of Steven Jackson and Larry Johnson.  Championship!

My Pick:  Kansas City -3

DET @ PHI (-5.5):  PHI 6-2

Everyone is now riding the Lions bandwagon, but to be fair they've played the Raiders, who they gave up 21 points to, and the Vikings, who they barely beat.  The Eagles, despite their problems, are a big step up from those two teams.  67% of the public is on Detroit, and I never like it when the public is pounding an underdog.  The Lions don't have the best defense, which could mean a bounce back week for Donovan McNabb and the struggling Eagles offense.  The Eagles need a big win here, and I think they'll get it, and cover the spread.

My Pick:  Philadelphia -5.5

BUF @ NE (-17):  NE 6-1-1

I said that I would be taking the Patriots in this one, but after some serious thought, I decided to switch to the Bills.  The Patriots need to get two touchdowns and a field goal to just push this spread.  17 points is a ton to be giving to any team in the NFL, especially a division rival.  I know the Bills have been playing bad, and the Patriots have been playing well.  The Patriots have nothing to prove in this one, and they have the Bengals next week.  The Bills will be playing this game tougher than the Patriots, and I think they keep it within two touchdowns or less.  I could even see a close game that no one expected out of the Bills at all.

My Pick:  Buffalo +17

MIA @ NYJ (-3):  NYJ 5-3

I am going with the Dolphins here.  These two are bad teams who cant stop the run, haven't run well, and have questionable quarterback situations.  I'm taking the team with the points, and I don't like that 75% of the public is on the Jets.

My Pick:  Miami +3

SF @ PIT (-10):  PIT 7-1

The Steelers have been playing well, but I don't know if they're going to beat San Francisco by more than 10.  The 49ers look like a team that will do anything to win, or at least keep the game close.  I'm taking the 49ers to cover in this game.  Note that since writing this part of the article, the line went up half a point.  I was taking the 49ers at 9.5, and love them at 10.

My Pick:  San Francisco +10

ARI @ BAL (-7):  ARI 4-3-1

While writing this post the line went from Arizona +7.5 to +7.  I was taking Arizona then, but now?  I'm re-thinking the decision.  Baltimore has a below average offense, and will be hurting with Jonathan Ogden out of the game.  I'm not starting Willis McGahee this week.  Arizona's coaches came from Pittsburgh, so they know the Ravens and know how to play them.  The problem I have is that the Ravens have a good defense, and Matt Leinart has turned the ball over a bit in the first two games.  This works to the Ravens advantage.  The public is heavy on Arizona, and like I said, I'm not a fan when the public likes underdogs.  In the end I want to pick Arizona because I want them to do well, but my head tells me to pick the Ravens.

My Pick:  Baltimore -7

STL @ TB (-3.5):  TB 5-2-1

The Rams will have problems winning until they get a good rushing defense.  The Bucs have an average run defense, but the Rams are horrible, showing that not much has changed since last season with them.  I'm picking Cadillac Williams over Willis McGahee in one of my fantasy leagues this week, because I think he will have a big game against the Rams.  I like Steven Jackson to have a big week as well.  This is another game where I've been flipping back and forth with my pick, but I think I'm going to take the system pick and go with Tampa Bay.

My Pick:  Tampa Bay -3.5

JAC @ DEN (-3.5):  DEN 6-2

Jacksonville has been horrible against the run, and their offense as a whole has been weak.  Denver is always one of the best teams running the ball, and that will benefit them greatly in this game.  If they take the lead, I don't think Jacksonville will have a chance, especially with David Garrard going up against Champ Bailey and company in the Denver secondary.

My Pick:  Denver -3.5

CIN @ SEA (-3):  SEA 4-4

Despite the massive amount of points put up against the Bengals last week, 73% of the public is taking them.  The majority of Cincinnati's problems lie in their run defense, which has allowed 166.5 yards per game in their first two games.  They let Jamal Lewis run for 211 yards.  They allowed 183 kick return yards to Josh Cribbs, who is a good returner, but not a Devin Hester type who can break off a return every kick.  The Bengals simply can't tackle, and that doesn't work well for them going up against Shaun Alexander.  I like the Seahawks to win this one, and to cover the spread.

My Pick:  Seattle -3

CLE @ OAK (-3):  OAK 3-3-2

Everyone is riding high on the Browns after their huge amount of points last week.  63% of the public are taking the Browns.  These two teams have horrible rushing defenses, so it will be a good day for Jamal Lewis and LaMont Jordan.  These are pretty identical teams all around, and I think this will be a close game.  I'd take the Browns in this one for that reason.

My Pick:  Cleveland +3 

CAR (-5) @ ATL:  CAR 7-1

The public is all over Carolina, betting them 83% of the time.  This could be the sucker bet of the week.  Atlanta is off to a horrible start this season, and this could be Joey Harrington's last week as a starter, with Byron Leftwich added to the mix.  The Panthers have an explosive offense, and are good at getting to the quarterback on defense.  There's no reason to take Atlanta, right?  I don't really have a big reason to take the Falcons, other than the fact that they are 4 point home dogs, everyone is betting the Panthers, and I think the pressure will be on Harrington to perform.  I think Harrington comes up big this week and the Falcons pull a surprise upset.   Just a gut feeling.  The line has gone from 4 to 5 in the last day, with the line going from 4.5 to 5 during the writing of this article.

My Pick:  Atlanta +5

NYG @ WAS (-4):  WAS 3-3-2

The Redskins look like one of the top NFC teams this season.  This isn't surprising to me.  I called them a sleeper team earlier in the season, and I said they would contend for the NFC East this year.  The Giants have looked horrible so far, allowing 40 points a game on defense.  The Redskins run the ball well, stop the run, have a good defense, and have a good young quarterback.  I like them to continue their early success and beat up on the Giants.

My Pick:  Washington -4 

DAL @ CHI (-3):  DAL 7-1

Dallas is the trendy pick this week, with 64% of the public taking the Cowboys.  That was my initial reaction, but after thinking about it, I've switched my pick.  True, Rex Grossman is a bad quarterback, but let's take a look at the other strengths and weaknesses here.  The Bears are great at stopping the run, and pretty much shutting down offenses.  If they can shut down the Chargers, then they can shut down the Cowboys.  This takes Dallas' big strength away.  The rushing stats are a bit skewed for these two teams as well.  Cedric Benson looked bad the first week, but ran well last week.  The Cowboys padded their run defense stats against Ronnie Brown last week, but allowed a lot to Derrick Ward the week before.  My opinion?  The Bears are good at running the ball, and the Cowboys have a below average run defense.  This means the Bears will take the ball out of Grossman's hands, and let Benson control the offense, while their defense shuts down the Cowboys powerful offense.  I'm benching Tony Romo this week in all of the leagues I have him in.

My Pick:  Chicago -3

After finishing the write ups of the games I went back and noticed a lot of the lines have changed.  I typicaly don't make my final picks until the game, hoping to get the best line possible.  Usually nothing changes, except maybe the line will change, and rarely does that affect the outcome, just adds a bit of security for me.  If anything significant happens, I'll post in the comments section with my changes.  Good luck to all today!