After a disappointing 2007, most have been down on Stephen Drew. Count me as one of the cautiously optimistic...

His line so far this year stands at .267/.333/.485 with 3 homeruns, 17 runs, and 10 RBI. Throw in his one stolen base and you have a servicable one month line for a SS in deeper Fantasy Leagues. But take a closer look:

Looking at the above table, nearly all of his peripherals are on the upswing. His line drive, fly ball, contact, and HR/FB rates are up while his ground ball and strikeout rates are down -- all the things you want to see in an improving ball player. And that .285 BABIP should tell you he's been running into his fair share of bad luck; in fact, there is nearly a hundred point difference between his BABIP and his expected BABIP.

Lets run some numbers.

Using his .378 xBABIP and running it through my handy-dandy component line calculator, I get the following expected batting line:

.347/.400/.614 !

Certainly not a line we can expect Drew to obtain, but it does show that his underlying skills are much better than his current slash stats are showing (as an aside, if Drew had that line right now, I'd be doing my best to sell high).

Just for fun, if you run the numbers with his career .302 BABIP (just about where you would expect him to be), you get the following:

.277/.339/.495.

Much more reasonable. That being said, if he can keep his LD% above 20 for the remainder of the season (which, from the early going, it looks like he may do), I would expect him to easily surpass that line.

All in all, Drew is someone to keep your eye on. He's got upside and the peripherals are showing it. He could be a great pick-up in deeper leagues where SS's are few and far between.