Chris Paul and company are the statistical favorites winning 66% of AccuScore simulations.  They have won their three home games this series by an average of 19.7 points.  Game Seven tonight is at home.  So would a win by the Spurs be an upset?

On paper, yes it would.  The Hornets had the better regular season record, and had the better MVP candidate in Paul.  This is however the defending champion San Antonio Spurs.  Everybody should be required to call them “defending champion” until they lose.  Nobody wouldbe surprised if the Spurs were to win tonight despite their road woes during this series.   

The big story in this game is the health of David West, but the forward should be fine after getting a lengthy rest after Game Six.  He is projected for 21 points and 9 rebounds by AccuScore.  He will need to be in top shape in order to be the second scorer next to point guard Paul.  New Orleans has struggled to score against the Spurs when their options are limited to just Paul.  Peja Stojakovic does not look like himself, and is finding difficulty with the defense of Bruce Bowen.  West needs to be the man inside as he was in Game Five.  Paul himself is projected for 26 points and 14 assists with 3 steals.  The high assist total is a great sign for the Hornets.  If he can get more teammates involved, particularly Tyson Chandler, Stojakovic, or Morris Peterson the Hornets become infinitely more difficult to defend. 

Manu Ginobili, Tim Duncan, and Tony Parker are all projected to score between 19 to 21 points.  Parker has been able to get into the lane at will.  I think he should concentrate on scoring, and try to get Paul into a scoring duel.  He won’t be able to slow down Paul defensively so the best thing he can do is to attack him offensively and try and draw him into a scoring competition.  Ginobili is probably the most important Spur in this game.  I said this at the beginning of this series, but there is nobody on the Hornets roster than can defend him one on one in the perimeter.  Ginobili has found his scoring touch, and if he goes off for 25 plus points once again, the Spurs will likely win.

I see this being the first close game of this series.  The Hornets play much better at home, but the Spurs are a veteran team and will show up in a Game Seven.  Fans probably want to see the young Hornets take on the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals, and the NBA probably has no preference between having the San Antonio or New Orleans media markets for the next series.  In the end, I see Paul taking control of this game and creating a changing of the guard moment by leading the Hornets to victory.

Chris Paul has New Orleans on the verge of the Western Conference Finals.