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May 01
2008
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Smoltz could return as closerPosted by twilliams in Untagged |
John Smoltz is on the disabled list for the second time this season, but this time won't return to his role as a starter. When Smoltz comes off the DL he will do so as a reliever, with the possibility existing that he could be the Braves closer. In five starts this season, Smoltz is 3-2 with a 2.00 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 36 strikeouts in 27 innings.
As a starter, Smoltz is an ace when healthy. The problem is that his value is much less than that of a younger ace, such as Felix Hernandez, who has put up similar numbers to Smoltz. Smoltz was a dominant closer inAtlanta from 2002 to 2004, saving 144 games during the three year stretch. During that span Smoltz had a 2.47 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP, with a 9.66 K/9 ratio.
Rafael Soriano is the current closer for the Braves, but is currently on the DL with elbow tendinitis. Manny Acosta has served as the closer recently, saving two games, but blowing his most recent chance against Washington. Soriano is eligible to come of the DL, but may not be able to return for a week or more. Smoltz is eligible to come off the DL in mid-May, but there is no word yet if he will return right away.
The health risk for Smoltz is smaller as the closer. I would argue that Smoltz would see a fantasy value increase as the closer. As a starter he is an ace with health worries. As a closer he is easily one of the best options in the game, with a much smaller health risk. The problem is that Smoltz is by far the best starter for the Braves, which raises the question of how the Braves will put him in closing situations.
If Smoltz does return to the closer role, and does so by the end of May, I could see him getting 30 saves over the remainder of the year. Smoltz owners would lose out on about 100 strikeouts, but the additional saves would make up for this loss. His return to the closer role could have other impacts on the Braves.
Rafael Soriano would see an obvious value drop, but would still be a guy to keep an eye on due to the health of Smoltz. Jo-Jo Reyes was just called up from AAA and is expected to make his first start on Saturday, after posting a 1.17 ERA and a 25:8 K/BB ratio in 23 innings at AAA this year. Reyes is a decent prospect to keep an eye on at the major league level, and would have a full time spot if Smoltz went full time to the bullpen. I have added Reyes in my NL only league, and have a close eye on him in my deeper mixed leagues, as he is a solid sleeper due to this situation and his performance at AAA.
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