From now on, when I wake up to find that my dog has peed on a case of beer, I'm not going to wager that day.  Navy didn't come close to covering, despite running for about 1000 yards, and Syracuse got hammered.  That leaves me up 0.31 units on the season.  It's a good thing I followed Accuscore's baseball picks and went with the Devil Rays and Orioles to bring some of that money back.

I'll be honest about tomorrow.  Looking at a slate of 36 games is kind of overwhelming, especially since I'm working from 10 AM in the morning until aboutmidnight.  This is what I loved about Accuscore from October on last year.  I could rely on their strong data to determine the best bets, and it usually took an hour or two.  This is the first time I've been with Accuscore at the start of the season, and it's going to take a lot more time to handicap the games.

Fortunately I had a whole week in Jamaica where I was spending my days on a beach doing nothing but sipping drinks...and analyzing Phil Steele's 2007 surprise teams with the goal of finding some great week one picks.  So far the trends I used have yielded one pick, and that was Oregon State to cover against Utah.  Here are the rest of the picks, grouped based on their reason for the pick.

GROUP ONE:  RETURNING LETTERMEN/STARTERS

There are two theories at work here.  One is that teams that return 79% or more lettermen, and 18+ starters improve on their record the next season, while teams who return 60.5% or less lettermen, and 11 or less starters, plus no returning QB, will decline.  The teams in the improvement area have improved 16 of 19 times in the last 6 years, with 18 of 19 having the same or better record.  The teams in the declining category have a 74% chance of having a weaker record, and only a 14% chance of improvement.

The Improvement Picks:

UCLA -17 over Stanford
Florida Atlantic -2.5 over Mid Tenn State
Colorado State ml +125 over Colorado

Going Against the Decliners:

Georgia Tech ml +105 over Notre Dame

GROUP TWO:  MOST IMPROVED TEAMS LIST

In the last 5 years, Phil Steele has listed 105 teams on his most improved list, and of those 105 teams, 84% have improved their record.  53 of 93 teams have gone from a losing record to bowl eligibility.  Here are those teams and their picks:

Memphis ml +125 over Mississippi
Illinois ml +170 over Missouri (and taking the +5 as insurance)
Toledo ml +205 over Purdue  (and taking the +6.5 as insurance)
Iowa -12 over N Illinois

GROUP THREE:  YARDS PER POINT

The theory behind this is that more yards equals more points.  A team with a higher yards per point on offense is unlucky, while a team with a lower YPP is lucky.  A team with a lower defensive YPP is unlucky, while a team with a higher YPP on defense is lucky.  The theory is that this luck changes in the next season, and I've only taken the 80% trends.

YPP Greater than 22.3 (100% of teams with same record, or improvement the following season)

Florida Intl +38 over Penn State

YPP Between 18.4 and 20.3 (80.6% of teams with same record or improvement the following season)

E Michigan +20 over Pittsburgh

Defensive YPP Between 20.35 and 22.45 (80.5% of teams with same record or weaker the following season)

Kansas State +13.5 over Auburn  (and a 1/2 unit on Kansas St ml +550)
Washington State +14.5 over Wisconsin  (and a 1/2 unit on Washington St ml +600)

So that brings the list to:

UCLA -17
Florida Atl -2.5
Colorado St ML +125
Georgia Tech ML +105
Memphis ML +125
Illinois +5
Illinois ML +170
Toledo +6.5
Toledo ML +205
Iowa -12
Florida Intl +38
E Michigan +20
Kansas St +13.5
Kansas St ML +550 (1/2 unit)
Washington St +14.5
Washington St ML +600 (1/2 unit)

Then, of course, I do have some picks of my own, so we'll keep those separate, and see if this helps, or hurts me:

The Big Blowouts:

USC -46
VT -28
WVU -25
Texas -39.5

The "I think these dogs have a good shot to win" picks:

Tennessee ml +230

The O/U Picks:

E Car/VT O 40 (VT may do that by themselves)

That's all for me.  I'll be tracking the games tomorrow while I'm at work the whole day.  It's this time of year when I look forward to the possibility of a normal 9-5, Monday through Friday job where the bulk of the business doesn't take place during college football games, and where I don't have to go to extremes to guarantee that I'm off for NFL football on Sundays.  Good luck to everyone tomorrow and enjoy the games!  I'm hoping I'll be home in time to watch the second half of the USC game!