I find the whole concept of "handicapping" amusing, especially in regards to the NFL.  I've never really cared about being a good "handicapper".  Sure, my system has worked out pretty well, but that was one time research.  The benefit of my system is that I don't have to sit and break down all of the games each week.  I can just plug the stats in to the spread sheet, and 30 minutes later I've got a pick.  I've said this before, I am no different than all of you.  I work 40 hours a week, spend time with my wife at home, and watch2-3 football games a week, as long as I have the laundry done that is.

I find the concept of "handicapping" amusing, because only a rare amount of people are true "handicappers", with a lot of other people who just have good records.  Does a good record mean you know more than anyone else?  Take a look at the Sports Guy's column this week.  His wife, who knows nothing about football, destroyed him picking against the spread in the NFL this season.  Take a look at her picks.  You could flip a coin and have more order than her picks.  Yet she has won 59% this season, which is what the pros win.

I've experienced this myself.  At my work place we hold a weekly NFL office pool.  Everyone picks all of the games, adds confidence points, and each week we have a new winner.  My boss, who knows nothing about the NFL, has won more times this season than anyone else.  My wife has even entered in the past, and won quite a few times.  Mind you, these aren't wins because everyone else sucked.  These are 13-3 type weeks that make the contest decided before the Sunday night game starts.

This is why I laugh at the concept of handicapping.  You could spend an hour breaking the Patriots game down, then five minutes in to the game watch Tom Brady go down with an injury, and watch your wife win her pick, with her having no clue as to why she picked the Giants.  It must have been skill.

I believe the only thing you can do is give a strong, objective opinion about a game.  Once the game starts, all bets are off and you and sitting there cheering for your picks to come through.  Sure, you'll have those people who say "Not me!  My picks are locks!"  Well then bet your house on them.  Seriously, if it was that easy, then Vegas would stop building new casinos because they would be losing too much in their sportsbooks.  If you're looking for a true skill in this game we play, don't look at the handicapping side.  The true skill is money management, but that is a topic for another column.  Now on to the week 17 picks.

NEW ENGLAND (-13.5) @ NY GIANTS:  NEW ENGLAND 7-1

The Giants will probably rest their starters most of the way.  Even if they don't, New England won't be resting, and you would take the Patriots if this were a normal game.  Tom Brady and Randy Moss need two touchdowns to set their individual records, and I think they will be gunning for that, even if it takes them until late in the game.  I'm taking the Patriots to cover tonight.

BUFFALO @ PHILADELPHIA (-9):  PHILADELPHIA 4-3-1

When you pick the opposite in the 4-3-1 games, you are undefeated.  The fact that Buffalo is getting nine points in this game makes this pick look much better.  Neither team is playing for anything, and neither will be resting their starters.  I'm taking the Bills, because an 8-8 season is more important to them than it is to the Eagles.

CAROLINA (-3) @ TAMPA BAY:  TAMPA BAY 7-0-1

Tampa Bay will be resting their starters, and I don't like their backups.  Carolina on the other hand has been horrible this season, but has shown some sign of hope in the past few weeks.  I like Carolina against a Bucs team that doesn't care, and for the record, I think DeAngelo Williams should get the bulk of the carries because he is by far the better running back.

CINCINNATI (-3) @ MIAMI:  CINCINNATI 5-3

I think Bill Parcells made a great move going to the Dolphins.  He's got a ton of high picks next season, and the team isn't THIS bad.  They've lost a lot of close games this season.  Bring back Ronnie Brown and throw in a solid quarterback and you've got a team that could go 8-8.  They have none of those things in this game, so I think the Bengals come away with the big win.

DALLAS @ WASHINGTON (-9):  DALLAS 7-1

Dallas will be resting their starters, but I still like them with the points in this game.  Maybe the Redskins win, but we're not replacing the Cowboys with the backups from TCU.  It seems like every year there is a team that benches their starters and still comes away with a win.  I think Dallas at least keeps it close.

DETROIT @ GREEN BAY (-4):  GREEN BAY 7-1

A key factor in this game will be Aaron Rogers.  If he gets the chance to play, he will be aiming to impress, especially with talk going around that Brett Favre could return next season.  I'd still have to go with the Packers, even if they bench their key starters.  The Lions are still a bad team, no matter who they are playing against.

JACKSONVILLE @ HOUSTON (-6.5):  JACKSONVILLE 7-1

David Garrard will be out of this game, and a lot of other Jacksonville starters will see some rest.  Houston on the other hand is a pretty decent team, and will be gunning for an 8-8 season.  I think they come away with the win and the cover against Jacksonville's backups.

NEW ORLEANS (-1) @ CHICAGO:  NEW ORLEANS 7-1

The Saints still have something to play for, even if it is a long shot.  That's why I'm taking them here.

PITTSBURGH (-3) @ BALTIMORE:  PITTSBURGH 6-2

If I'm the Steelers, I want to gun for that number three seed, because it is the difference between playing Jacksonville, and playing Tennessee or Cleveland.  I think they win and cover this game.

SEATTLE @ ATLANTA (-1):  SEATTLE 8-0

Surprisingly I'm taking Atlanta in this game.  I just don't think Seattle is that strong of a team, especially when you consider their depth.  I know I'm in the minority on this one, but I think that once you remove Hasselbeck, the Seahawks are toast.

SAN FRANCISCO @ CLEVELAND (-10):  CLEVELAND 6-2

I'm taking the Browns, because they have to win to have a chance of getting in to the playoffs.  Notice a trend here?  Take the teams who have something to play for.  That's my week 17 motto.

TENNESSEE (-6) @ INDIANAPOLIS: INDIANAPOLIS 5-3

Tennessee needs to win and they are in.  The Colts will probably have their starters playing for one series.  I think the Titans will do enough to get by in this game, as I don't think the Colts backup offense is horrible.  The Titans will win, but the Colts will cover.

MINNESOTA (-3) @ DENVER:  MINNESOTA 7-1

The Vikings need help from the Cowboys to get in, but before that, they need to win.  That rhymes.  I always do well when my analysis rhymes.  Look it up.  The Vikings have the best rushing offense, and the best rushing defense.  The Broncos have one of the worst rushing defenses and have nothing to play for.  I'm still worried about Tarvaris Jackson and the Vikings secondary, but I think they will win and cover.

SAN DIEGO (-9) @ OAKLAND:  SAN DIEGO 6-2

The Chargers are playing for the same seed the Steelers are gunning for.  Tomlinson torched the Raiders the last time he played them.  I can see this being the same as the Denver game last week.  The Chargers defense won't give up many points, the offense will get a solid lead, and the second half will be all about ending the game as quick as possible.

ST LOUIS @ ARIZONA (-6):  ARIZONA 5-2-1

The 5-2-1 picks are 2-5 this season.  Steven Jackson has been on fire the past few weeks, and should be the difference in this game.  I think St Louis could win this outright.

KANSAS CITY @ NY JETS (-6.5):  NY JETS 5-3

If I'm the Jets, I want to lose this game.  You can get no worse than the fourth pick if you lose.  If you win, you potentially drop down to 7th.  What is the point of winning this game?  These teams are fairly even, with the big differences being that the Chiefs turn the ball over more, and run for fewer yards.  The Jets allow more yards on the ground, and are one of the worst in the league against the run.  Kolby Smith should fare well against the Jets, taking the pressure off Brodie Croyle, and limiting turnovers.  I'll take the Chiefs to cover, and possibly win outright.

System Stats Since Week 7:

8-0:  6-9 (When taking the 0-8 team)

7-0-1:  2-1 (When taking the 0-7-1 team)

7-1:  8-12 (When taking the 1-7 team)

6-2:  20-13

5-2-1:  2-5

5-3:  21-10

4-3-1:  4-3 (When taking the underdog) and 7-0 (When taking the 3-4-1 team)

Good luck to all this week!