Tonight is probably the most important game in the NFC.  I know, you've heard that tons of times, and for obvious reasons it is true.  However, I have a reason that not many people are talking about.  This game could determine who goes to the Super Bowl from the NFC.

These two teams are the class of the NFC.  There is no one else who compares to them, or who can be placed on their level.  It would be a shocker to see one of these teams go down before the NFC title game, and they both will probably end up with similar records at the end of the year, possiblythe same.  Tonight's game could determine which one gets home field advantage if they do meet in the NFC finals.

I don't think the Cowboys stand a chance if the game is in Lambeau in January.  Likewise, I think the Cowboys have a huge advantage over the Packers in a home game.  It all comes down to Romo and Favre.  We know the book on Favre, and it is finishing with an amazing season this year.  At least we assume on the "finishing" part.  As for Romo, we have seen him play well this year, but he has come up a bit short in high pressure games.  If the weather is nice, like it would be in Dallas, then he's got a chance to succeed.  In the snow and cold of Lambeau you will see more mistakes.

Everyone compares Romo as a young Favre, but the difference is that the real Favre can handle the high pressure games.  We haven't seen that from Romo.  He fumbled the snap in last year's playoff game.  He throws for five interceptions on Monday night against the Bills.  He comes up short against the Patriots, passing for under 200 yards.

Looking closer, Romo is elevated by a weak NFC.  We talk all the time about how the AFC is a much better conference.  Look at Romo's splits against the AFC and NFC:

NFC:  69 percent completions, 307 yards per game, 3 TDs per game

AFC:  60 percenter completions, 222 yards per game, 2 TDs per game

Romo's numbers drop in every category.  He completes almost ten percent fewer passes, throws for 85 fewer yards, and throws for one less touchdown.  You can try to blame it on the Patriots, but he's also played the Bills, Jets, and Dolphins, three teams who have a combined record of 7-26.  If that doesn't speak volumes about the talent disparity of the AFC and NFC, then I don't know what does.  It also says something about Romo.  He's benefitting from a weak NFC.   Now let's look at Favre:

NFC:  68.3 percent completions, 287 yards per game, 1.875 TDs per game

AFC:  68.9 percent completions, 353 yards per game, 2.33 TDs per game

Not only does Favre improve on all of his numbers against the AFC, but he plays much tougher opponents, who combine for a 15-18 record.

The point I'm trying to make here is this.  The Packers and Cowboys are the cream of the crop in the NFC.  You could make a case that they are just as good as most AFC teams.  We see how Romo beats up on the NFC teams, and how he fares against the much better AFC teams.  We see how Favre comes up big against these better teams.  So when the two teams get their first meeting against a good NFC team, who do you think will come up bigger?  The guy whose numbers decline against better opponents, or the guy who rises to the challenge?

This game is the most important game of the year for the Cowboys because it could net them home field advantage in the playoffs.  Looking at the difference between the two quarterbacks tonight, the Cowboys need all of the advantages they can get.

GREEN BAY @ DALLAS (-7):  DALLAS 5-3

The system pick is Dallas, but as you can guess, I like Green Bay to cover.  Dallas doesn't have the secondary to stop the spread attack from Favre, and Green Bay has one of the best defenses that the Cowboys have seen.

ATLANTA @ ST LOUIS (-3.5):  ATLANTA 5-3

I think if anything wins the game for the Falcons, it will be the run game.  I will reference my waiver wire wonders in cheap plug-like fashion, where I mention how bad Joey Harrington is on the road, and how I think the Rams could be a good sleeper unit.  I'm leaning towards the Rams, especially since Bulger probably won't miss much time.

BUFFALO @ WASHINGTON (-5.5):  WASHINGTON 6-2

I'd rather not bet based on emotions of players who just lost a teammate.  Therefore I'm skipping this game. 

DETROIT @ MINNESOTA (-3.5):  MINNESOTA 6-2

Have I mentioned that the Lions are a joke?  They have no defense, and Jon Kitna, while being a decent fantasy quarterback, is not someone you want as your real QB.  Too many turnovers for my taste.  Oh yeah, Adrian Peterson may return against one of the worst rushing defenses.  How can you pick the Lions here?

HOUSTON @ TENNESSEE (-3.5):  TENNESSEE 6-2

As usual, I will pick Tennessee to follow the strong 6-2 trend, but if Albert Haynesworth is out, I'm going with the Texans.

JACKSONVILLE @ INDIANPOLIS (-7):  JACKSONVILLE 5-3

No one plays the Colts tougher than the Jaguars.  I wouldn't be surprised if they pulled the upset.  Remember, the last game saw David Garrard leave early after completing 8 of 12 passes.  That was when Quinn Gray came in to the game to go 9 for 24, 56 yards, and 2 interceptions.  Garrard is back, and Maurice Jones-Drew always comes up big against the Colts.

NY JETS @ MIAMI (-1):  MIAMI 7-1

The Dolphins could actually win a game.  I made jokes earlier in the season about how they could be the first team to go 0-16.  That would be true, but I forgot about the 0-14 Bucs.  Therefore, I'm rooting for the Dolphins to win so the Bucs can crack open a few Hurricanes and celebrate their reign as the worst team in NFL history.  In seriousness, the Dolphins may be going with John Beck and Patrick Cobbs.  There's no better team than the Jets to start a rookie quarterback and a rookie running back, but I wouldn't bet on them to win.

 SAN DIEGO (-5) @ KANSAS CITY:  SAN DIEGO 6-2

Kolby Smith looked good last week, and now it is time to see what he can do against someone who isn't the Raiders.  Last time around we saw Damon Huard and Dwayne Bowe beat the Chargers 30-16 on the road.  Rivers has turned things around somewhat since then, and LT ran for 132 yards and should have another big game.  The Chiefs are a different team, but in a bad, inexperienced way, while the Chargers are out of their early season funk.  I like the Chargers to win and cover.

SEATTLE @ PHILADELPHIA (-3.5):  SEATTLE 5-3

It's funny that with McNabb in, the Eagles rely heavily on Westbrook.  With Feeley in, they pass more and don't lean on Westbrook so much.  Yet, McNabb is the better quarterback?  I think we will see McNabb in Chicago next year, where he is a huge upgrade over Rex Grossman.  If the Eagles played that well against New England with Feeley, then I don't think they would have a problem against the Seahawks.   I guess we will wait and see who starts.

SAN FRANCISCO @ CAROLINA (-2.5):  CAROLINA 6-2

It sounds crazy, but I think Matt Moore could be the answer in Carolina.  Not long term, but better than David Carr and Vinny Testaverde.  That's not saying much, but maybe Moore can get the ball to Steve Smith for a change.  How often have we seen a no-name QB come in and succeed in the NFL?  Way too often for the Panthers to be relying on Carr and Vinny.

CLEVELAND @ ARIZONA (PK):  CLEVELAND 6-2

Just like the Bengals game, the Cardinals are at home, and their coaches are former Steelers coaches who saw the Browns twice a year.  The system says Cleveland, but some things go beyond stats.  I'm leaning towards Arizona in this game.

DENVER (-3.5) @ OAKLAND:  DENVER 6-2

I took the Over for "Over/Under 1000 combined rushing yards in the Denver/Oakland game."  The difference between these teams is that Justin Fargas is the best option the Raiders have, while Denver actually has a passing game.  Forget the hype about the Raiders' secondary.  The only reason the numbers are so low is because teams know they can win with the run.  Denver fell apart in the fourth quarter last time, but won in overtime.  I think a bigger win is in store this week.

TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS (-3):  TAMPA BAY 4-4

Tampa won early in the season when New Orleans was in their funk.  At home, and with Drew Brees and Marquis Colston doing well, I like the Saints.

NY GIANTS (-1.5) @ CHICAGO:  NY GIANTS 8-0

Eli Manning has been average this season, the Giants have a weakened running game, and their defense is over-rated.  The Bears could win this, but they need some good running from Adrian Peterson.  The strength of the Giants defense is their front seven, which is good at stopping the run and rushing the pass.  Establishing the run could give Grossman some time to exploit the weak Giants secondary.  I'd take Chicago in this one.

CINCINNATI @ PITTSBURGH (-7):  PITTSBURGH 5-3

The average bettor will look at the last two weeks, see a loss against the Jets and a 3-0 win against the Dolphins and think Cincinnati is a lock to cover.  Not so fast.  The Steelers always have one game a year where they forget to show up against a really bad team, and last week was a result of the weather.  The Steelers will bounce back this week, looking to get in to form for next week's game against the Patriots.

NEW ENGLAND (-21) @ BALTIMORE:  NEW ENGLAND 7-1

I'm not sure that Baltimore can score more than a touchdown, and I'm pretty sure New England can score more than 28 points.  The best team in the league taking on one of the worst offenses in the league.  I'll give the 21 points.

System Results since week 7:

Total:  42-42

Breakdown by game type:

8-0:  3-4
7-1:  4-7
6-2:  11-6
5-3:  11-6
4-4:  6-9

The 6-2 and 5-3 games are still the strongest.  Fading the 8-0 and 7-1 picks hasn't worked out well this year.  Taking the underdog in the 4-4 games is also not doing well.  Good thing  12 of the 16 games this week are either 5-3 or 6-2 games.