NEW ENGLAND (-12) vs NY GIANTS:  NEW ENGLAND 6-2

It only seems fitting that I write this while I run my franchise on Madden.  You see, I don't really play the games in Madden, I just simulate them all, act as the GM of the team, and try to build a dynasty.  Eventually things get to the point where my team is a guarantee to make it to the Super Bowl, and I shoot for bigger things like an undefeated season.  When it comes to the point where my team goes undefeated I usually move on to a new team.  Afterall, how unrealistic is it that a team would be so dominant that they would destroy their opponents through the season, and be a guarantee to win the Super Bowl to cap off their perfect season?

Enter the 2007 New England Patriots.  I never thought I would see a team go through a season like this.  In the past when there was an undefeated team, you knew they had to lose.  The teams in question would be good teams, but you knew that they would eventually have an off day.  Not the Patriots.  Even when they have an off day they seem to pull through.

What has been more amazing is the implications this had on Vegas.  The Patriots opened the season 8-0 against the spread, and most of those games they covered easily in the first half.  After week ten the Patriots didn't see a point spread under ten points.  They covered two out of seven games during this stretch, as Vegas dared gamblers to bet on the Patriots.  The over was a popular bet, and Vegas challenged people by setting the line higher than 45 points in all but one game after week three.

This game is tough to call.  The Patriots and Giants combined for 73 points in their week 17 game.  The Patriots games have gone over 50 points 11 times this season, going over 60 points four times, and three of those times going over 70 points.  It's hard to take anything but the Patriots and the over in this game.  Vegas knows this, and they've jacked up the spreads to once again dare you to bet these popular options.  Let's take an in-depth look at these two bets.

Over/Under 54

True, the Patriots have combined with opponents to  go over 50 points 11 times this season, but most of those games they scored 51 or 52 points.  They've gone over 54 points in six games.  Those were:

@ Dallas:  Dallas had a third quarter lead, followed by a Patriots comeback

@ Miami:  The Dolphins put up 28 points, but allowed 49

Washington:  The Patriots ran up the score against the Redskins

@ Buffalo:  See the Washington game

Philadelphia:  Close game with a lot of points from the Eagles

@ NY Giants:  Patriots came back after the Giants put a lot of points up

Take out the Washington and Buffalo games, and you see a trend.  The Patriots held most of their opponents to under 20 points.  In these four games the Patriots defense broke down, but their offense out-scored the opponents to win the game and help drive the score to an astronomical level.  So what can we expect in this game?

The Giants put up 35 points on the Patriots last time, but will history repeat its self?  Looking at the schedule, there weren't too many top offenses that the Patriots shut down.  On the road the Patriots allowed 21 points a game to opponents.  Vegas is daring us to take the over, but I feel it is a safe play.  The Giants showed they can put up some points on the Patriots, and we know the Patriots will put up points.

Patriots -12 vs New York

In a game this big, everyone will be looking to hit their parlays, which means that one of these bets won't be so easy.  I have a feeling it will be the point spread, since that is what the majoriy of bettors will play.  Let's consider a few things on this spread:

1.  The Patriots were 13 point favorites against the Giants last time, and won by 3.  The public knows this, and will be influenced by the large amount of points the Giants are getting.

2.  The public is afraid to bet against the Patriots.  This has been shown when Vegas set the lines for the Patriots games far out of reach, only for the public to continue to bet the Patriots.

3.  The system says to take the Patriots with a 6-2 pick, but the 6-2 picks have gone 0-3 in the playoffs.

It's hard taking either team in this game.  The Giants covered last time, and have been playing great in the playoffs.  The Patriots haven't covered in awhile, but we know what they are capable of.  If you bet on the Giants, which 67% of the public is doing, then you will spend the whole game in "Oh crap, why did I bet against the Patriots" mode.  I hate to throw another list out there, but to be honest I'm basically making this pick by typing this article, so here goes:

1.  The Patriots were covering with ease when the weather was nice and they were relying on their passing game.  When the weather became colder they turned to the running game, still winning, but by a smaller margin.  The passing game returns in Arizona.

2.  A lot has been made about the success of Eli Manning recently.  While I credit the younger Manning for playing some impressive mistake-free ball, I'm not completely sold.  The Giants have been playing with a lead the majority of their recent games, and even when they have been down, it hasn't been by much.  This is a much more comfortable setting for Eli, which means fewer turnovers.

3.  Take a look at the last game.  The Giants had four touchdown drives, plus one kickoff returned for a touchdown.  Four of their drives were short drives that ended with a punt, and one ended with an interception.  The Patriots had four touchdown drives, three drives that ended with a field goal, and just two drives that ended with a punt.  The Giants managed some points, but you take away the kickoff return, and the garbage time touchdown at the end, or just turn one of those field goals in to another Patriots touchdown, and that 3 point game is suddenly a lot bigger.

I think that both sides of this bet will be close.  I think that if you tease this game, you're going to be in good shape.  However, I'm going for the 2-0 Super Bowl victory.  Maybe I'm playing it safe going with the Patriots and the over, but if you ask me, that's the smart move.  The only thing better would be if I could wager on my Steelers dynasty in Madden.