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Jan 15
2008
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NFL System: Conference Playoff ProjectionsPosted by twilliams in Tim Williams, Scorpions NFL System, Scorpion, NFL System, NFL |
In my opinion, last weekend was one of the best playoff weekends in recent history. You had the snow in Green Bay, a relatively close game in New England, then two upsets on Sunday. The best part is that we are left with four teams who I would accept in the finals. There are no 8-8 teams that bring up the complaints of "Should an 8-8 team be considered the champions?" There are no teams that just got hot the last few weeks of the season and barely made it in to the playoffs. All four of these teams are solid, which makes this coming weekend another weekendto look forward to.
Personally I think the Super Bowl will be New England and Green Bay. What better way to decide the title? New England is a team that everyone hates. Their coach is a jerk, their quarterback is talented, but you would never cheer for him because he's a pretty boy and too cocky. Green Bay is a team everyone can get behind. I don't know anyone, outside of Vikings, Lions and Bears fans, who have a problem with Brett Favre. How can you not root for him? How can you not like him?
Now I would be disappointed if the Chargers and Giants were to meet up, but that still would be a decent game, just not as good as the game I mentioned above. I wouldn't mind the Patriots and Giants though. After their week 17 match up I would like to see the Giants take another shot at the Patriots. We will find out this weekend who is going to the Super Bowl, so for now let's take a look at the system projections for these games.
SAN DIEGO @ NEW ENGLAND (-14): NEW ENGLAND 6-2
The Patriots were close last weekend to covering, but came up a yard short of a first down and went for the field goal. Can they cover a bigger spread against, seemingly, a better team? San Diego has had problems in the first half lately. Against the Colts they scored 7 points in the first half, 21 in the second half. They scored none in the first half, and 17 in the second half against the Titans. Their previous meeting against the Titans they scored none in the first half, 23 in the second half. The last time the Patriots and Chargers played, the Bolts scored none in the first half, and 14 in the second half.
Tomlinson and Rivers are both hurt, although I think both will play this weekend. With that being said, the last time around the Patriots won by 24 points. Tomlinson hasn't cracked 100 yards in his last three games, and only broke the 50 yard mark once, against Oakland in week 17. Rivers had a good game against Tennessee, but that's about it for over the top performances. San Diego has been winning because of their defense. Against New England they are going to need some offense, because the defense won't hold up.
I think the Chargers continue to struggle in the first half, which will allow the Patriots to jump out to an early lead. I don't think the Chargers will put up much of a comeback in the second half, which will allow the Patriots to cover. As for the over/under, the line started at 51, and people have been hammering the under, dropping it down to 47.5. I'll wait it out and take the over.
NY GIANTS @ GREEN BAY (-7): GREEN BAY 5-3
The Giants have been playing well lately. Their pass rush is the key to their defense, and Eli Manning's lack of turnovers has been the key to the offense. I look for both to change this weekend. I'm not saying that Manning will crash and burn, but I don't think he will have another two touchdown, zero interception performance.
This game is going to be heavily decided by the weather. The last I heard there was going to be snow, like last week. This does two things for Green Bay. It slows down the Giants pass rush, and puts Eli Manning off his game. Last week they were saying that it was hard to complete long passes, because you couldn't see the ball. If Green Bay takes an early lead, the Giants won't be able to go deep, and probably won't be able to contain Ryan Grant from maintaining the lead.
Even if there is no snow, the high on Sunday is going to be 11 degrees. Now the Giants are used to cold weather, but cold weather throws people off their game. Usually I say bad weather benefits the bad team, but in this case it benefits the good team. It takes away the speed of the pass rush for the Giants, which gives Favre a little more time to exploit the Giants weak secondary. I'm taking the Packers to win and cover, and I'll take the over as well.
Last week the system went 1-3, but if you went with my picks in post number 100 you would have gone 6-2 with the spreads and over/unders. I'm sticking with the system picks this week. Here's to hoping for another big week! Good luck to all!
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southwestsideandy
said:
twilliams
said:
| Just an update: I still like the over in both games, and I like Green Bay, but I am going with San Diego. No one is giving the Chargers a chance. I don't think they will win, but I think they will put forth a huge effort and keep it closer than 2 touchdowns. New England isn't in the "run up the score" mode, as shown last week when they went for a field goal on fourth and 1, then just ran out the clock to end the game, rather than going for another score (which they would have done in the regular season.) So I'm taking San Diego 14, Green Bay -7.5, and the over in each game. Good luck to all today! |
