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Nov 26
2007

Monday night matchup

Posted by DAMAN in Untagged 

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OK, no matter how you look at things we need this game tonight.  Accuscore runs their weeks Monday through Sunday which means last week we went 4-4, but since I mainly bet on NFL, I run my weeks Tuesday through Monday which means we are 4-3 so far.  So whether its to start the week off well after a .500 week, or to end the week 5-3, like I said, we need this game, so here goes.  The Pittsburgh Steelers are 5-0 at home against teams with a .473 winning percentage, winning each game by at least 21 except the most recent one against Cleveland.  Miami has no offense to speak of, and so tonight they are starting a rookie quarterback making his second start and Ricky Williams at running back after a 22 month smoke break.  The Dolphin offense is decent at running the ball, but Williams vs. the #3 run defense of Pittsburgh scares me only slightly less than John Beck against a blitzing machine.  I don't think that Miami can score more than 10-13 points barring a Ted Ginn return touchdown(and I give that about a 10% chance).  So if Miami scores 13, the Steelers would need 29 to cover.  Pittsburgh has the #2 rushing offense, Miami has the #32 rush defense, which is a little misleading because a lot of those yards are at garbage time, but they do give up 4.4 yards a carry which is tied for 24th.  Pittsburgh's pass offense is only 18th, but they average 8.2 yards per attempt, which is third best in the NFL behind Dallas and New England, and Miami's pass defense is 3rd, but again that's misleading because teams stop throwing on them when the game is out of reach, their 7.6 yards per attempt given up is tied for 27th.  What I'm trying to say is that Pittsburgh should be able to do about whatever they want on offense, which to me should translate into at least 29 points considering that's halfway between their average  of 27 points per game overall and 31 points per game at home.  In case you haven't been reading and just skimmed this through looking for the important parts, maybe all caps will help:PITTSBURGH BY AT LEAST 21, take the Steelers.  No luck needed, the money man Gabriel Gold has spoken(or typed in this case).

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$teve said:

 
I'm in! My money is on PIT tonight!
November 26, 2007

christner said:

 
i totally agree. seems like PIT will be inspired and run it up on a troubled MIA team that is meeting up with PIT at the wrong time. i especially agree that PIT should keep MIA below 10 pts.
should be another MNF blowout.
catch ya next week. keepup the goodwork
November 26, 2007

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