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Aug 31
2007
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Friday Picks, Thursday Results, and the first draft results of the yearPosted by twilliams in Tim Williams, NCAA Football, Handicapping, Football, betting |
I swore to myself that this year would be the year that I would drop down to one or two fantasy football leagues. Last year I was in four leagues, winning two of them, just missing the playoffs in one, and getting destroyed in the other (thank you LaMont Jordan and Edgerrin James.) This year I anticipated only being in my family league, and maybe starting a league up at work. Then I got an invitation to join a league with some friends from college. Then I got an invitation from Smallwood to join a league, which drafted last night. My wife doesn't ever worryabout my gambling. She worries about my fantasy sports addiction, or my mistress as she calls it. It's a good thing I don't play fantasy hockey, thus giving me a few months off at the start of the year. Otherwise I don't think she would have married me.
So the first draft of the year came and went last night, and I'm pretty pleased with my team. I'm not going to talk much on it, because no one really cares about their fantasy team except themselves, but Smallwood is in this league, and I'm not above public taunting. I ended up with my boy Philip Rivers at QB in the 5th round, then went with a sleeper backup in Joey Harrington in the 13th round. I picked Larry Johnson with the third pick, Willis McGahee in the second round, and Ronnie Brown in the third round. I know I wrote that you should take a receiver in the second, but all of my top guys went in the early second, and McGahee was still on the board. I also added LaMont Jordan and Cadillac Williams in the later rounds, so if one of them catches fire I'm loaded at running back.
My receivers were Andre Johnson, who I like because the Texans will play from behind and will pass most of the time, and because he has Matt Schaub throwing to him. I got Chris Chambers in the 8th round, which I felt was a steal, then took Brandon Marshall with the next pick, just because a ton of people were on auto draft, and his name was moving up the list. My final receiver was Isaac Bruce, who could be a sleeper as a #3 guy. My defense was the Vikings, the best team against the run last year. My kicker was Rian Lindell, just because I think the Bills will be kicking more field goals than scoring touchdowns. My tight end is Randy McMichael, who seems to be on my team every year, and who could be a great option with the Rams. At the very least I know I'm good for at least one win over Smallwood's team.
Moving on from fantasy talk, last night was a good start to the season in college football. I went 4-3, for a positive 2.31 units earned. Considering the draft, the college football picks, and my fantasy baseball team batting .387 with 2 homers and 2 stolen bases (leading me to a championship this season), I'd say it was a good day overall. As for today, I woke up to find that one of my dogs peed on a case of Rolling Rock. I don't know if that is good news or bad news for the rest of the day. I'm hoping for the best tonight, so here is what I've got for this evening.
Navy -21.5 @ Temple
Accuscore has Navy covering at a 56.9% rate at this current spread. The public is all over Navy, betting them at over an 80% rate. I'm not sure what to think of this, because the public was all over LSU and Miami of Ohio last night, and both teams easily covered. Speaking of which, how about that LSU game going under by half a point? It felt like the college season never ended. Losing games by half a point. Cheering on Oregon State on my way home as they took off from a 7-7 tie to win 24-7. Desperately looking for coverage at home because for some reason ESPN's Gamecast programs don't work after 12:00 eastern time. It's good to be back.
Navy has won the last two years by scores of 21 and 36 points. This year they return 7 starters on offense, but just three on defense. They lost 35 of their lettermen, and return just 26. Temple returns 8 starters on offense and 6 on defense. Last year Temple gave up 420 yards on the ground to Navy, and only rushed for 13 themselves. Navy's QB, Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada, who I will forever refer to as KNKE (which kind of sounds like kinky if you spell it out loud fast enough) ran for 140 of those yards. Temple has sold out this game, but half of the crowd will by Navy fans, so there isn't much of a home field advantage here. Temple returns more players than Navy, but they are making the change from a 3-4 to a 4-3 defense, which means that they will probably be going through a big adjustment. Combine that with the fact that they got demolished by Navy last year, and I'm looking for another repeat here. Navy will run all over Temple, and easily cover this spread.
My Pick: Navy -21.5
Washington -4 @ Syracuse
Accuscore has Syracuse covering this spread at a 57% rate. The public is pretty split on these two teams. Washington returns 6 starters on each side of the ball, while Syracuse returns 7 on offense and 5 on defense. Washington has the toughest schedule in the league this season, going up against Boise State, Ohio State, UCLA, and USC in the four weeks following this game. If you think they're not looking ahead to that monstrous schedule, you're probably wrong. Washington finished last season with a 5-7 record, but went 1-6 in their last seven games. In the last 4 years, Washington is 4-17 on the road. Syracuse was out scored 24-17 last season on average, but they return 6 starters on defense, one more than last seasons total. This is Greg Robinson's third year at Syracuse. He has 5 wins, 4 of them coming at home. Teams usually improve in the third year under a head coach, so look for some improvement from Syracuse, but not enough to have a big season. Still, I think they'll have enough to beat Washington tonight, who will be looking ahead to the tough opponents in the next four weeks.
My Pick: Syracuse ml +140
Yesterday's results:
LSU/Miss St O 45.5 - LOSS
Kent State ML +165 - WON
Buffalo +32 - LOSS
Oregon State -6.5 - WON
UNLV -6.5 - WON
Miami of Ohio ML +180 - WON
ULM ML +135 - LOSS
Good luck to everyone tonight. I plan on handicapping some games for tomorrow during the rest of the day, at least until my wife gets home, at which point I will drop it all to watch Heroes, my new television show addiction.
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twilliams
said:
Goldfinger
said:
| "the public was all over LSU and Miami of Ohio last night, and both teams easily covered." I would not say that at all. LSU easily covered. Miami of Ohio had a 56 Yd punt return down to Ball St's 20 Yd line with 2:00 left, then scored the winning TD with :17 left. That's not an easy cover at all - that's called thrilling, nail biting action. Ball St closed at -4.5, so that game could have very easily swung the other way. |
