Everybody remembers what happened back in Chicago in 2003. Two young fireballers named Kerry Wood and Mark Prior had Cy-Young caliber seasons and were poised to lead the Cubs for years to come. Instead overwork, overuse, and some bad breaks left the pair of phenoms on the proverbial scrap heap. Neither player has been able to duplicate their success of that season since. Mark Prior is currently rehabbing as a member of the San Diego Padres and hopes to join the rotation sometime this season. Kerry Wood is finally tasting some modicum of success this season, butas a closer with his arm no longer able to withstand the rigors of starting games.

The only person that seems to have failed to heed this cautionary tale is the man responsible for its genesis: Dusty Baker. As manager of the Cubs during that 2003 season he rode the arms of both Wood and Prior all the way to the NLCS. Wood was 26 that year, while Prior was just 23. Both had superstar futures ahead of them if only they could avoid injury. While not all of the blame can be placed at the feet of Baker, the incredible workload he pushed onto his young starters certainly was not a good idea. Wood made 3542 pitches during the regular over the course of 33 starts for an average of 111 per outing. Prior threw 3399 pitches in 30 starts, an average of 113 pitches per outing. Considering that the threshold for a full day's work for a starter these days is 100 pitches, and the numbers seem downright absurd. And these numbers do not even include Spring Training and the postseason.

History seems to be repeating itself this season with Baker as the new manager of Cincinnati. The Reds have two phenoms of their own in the rotation in 22-year old Johnny Cueto and 24-year old Edinson Volquez. They, along with position players Jay Bruc, Edwin Encarnacion, Brandon Phillips, and Joey Votto, form a young nucleus that promises a bright future for baseball in Ohio. This of course is assuming that Cueto and Volquez remain healthy which is never a given for young pitchers, all the more reason to be concerned about things like innings and pitch counts. With Baker at the helm, it appears the future means nothing even though the Reds are clearly not ready to contend today.

That appears to matter little to Baker who is more interesting in winning what amounts to meaningless games in April and May.  The Reds (as of 5/27) are just 24-28 and 7 behind in the NL Central.  They should be planning for the future and nurturing their exciting young core of both pitchers and everyday players.  Instead, Cueto and Volquez are being pushed to dangerous levels that mirrors what happen in Chicago in 2003.  Except of course the Reds are not World Series contenders.

Cueto is very young and shows electric stuff despite his 5'10'' frame.  He has the typical power pitcher arsenal flashing a fastball that sits in the low to mid-nineties (averaging 93.4 mph according to PitchFX) with a slider and a developing change.  He spent just two seasons in the minors last year throwing 161.1 innings.  This season Cueto is projected to throw 183 innings at his current pace, but his pitch counts have been disturbingly high in his last two starts.  Baker actually did a good job limiting Cueto's workload never allowing him to throw more 100 pitches in his first six starts.  Cueto though was allowed to throw 108 pitches or more in 3 of his last 5 starts.  In his last two outings he has averaged 116.5 pitches in just 10 total innings.  Volquez is slightly bigger than Cueto at 6' 200 lbs. and threw a career-high 178.2 innings in 2007.  This year he has been a revelation with a 1.31 ERA and 11.3 K/9.  He has thrown 100 pitches or more in 7 of his 11 starts and 4 times topped 110.  Part of that is Volquez's own fault due to a 4.79 BB/9 and the high strikeout rate, but it still points to bad management by Baker.

Baker needs to realize that he is not playing for today.  He needs to prepare this team to win in 2009 and beyond.  Walt Jocketty was hired earlier this season as the new GM in Cincinnati, and he did not hire Baker.  Jocketty has a long history of success in St.Louis and it will be interesting to see how he handles the development of his young star players.  Jay Bruce was recently called up, and was fantastic in his debut.  In order for the Reds to be ready to win when Bruce, Encarnacion, and Votto hit their primes they need the arms of Volquez and Cueto.  Baker needs to make sure what happened to Prior and Wood do not repeat themselves or he may find himself out of a job very soon. 

Minus his last start, Volquez has averaged over 102 pitches per outing.  Cueto has thrown 233 pitches in his last two starts.