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Feb 21
2008
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College Basketball PredictionsPosted by Inventor66 in Untagged |
After experimenting with my various sports prediction programs, I have found one that seems to be working well for men's college basketball. It is the Predict program that runs on the web. So I decided to do a test run of Predict on NCAABK and post the predictions and results on the front page of my website, www.freedomodds.com. Each day (or most days anyway) for the next week or two I will generate a set of predictions from the Predict program and post them for you to see. Right now after almost 50 picks, the success rate is 57%. That could be luck, or it could be a winning program in that sport at this time, we will have to see.
Predict works by looking at the history of game scores and doing lots of mathematical analysis on the data. It uses the ELO system to rank teams, then forms confidence factors based on three algorithms applied to what I call point spread space, and finally makes wager recommendations based on those confidence factors. It know nothing about injuries or trades or other statistics, so I suggest using your own best judgement on top of Predict when doing your bet selection. One good strategy, since there are so many games and so many picks, would be to start with Predict's pick list for the day and then choose from that list the bets that you think are the best ones.
If I get positive feedback or increased web traffic and Predict continues to do well, I will continue to make the picks after the test is over. Thanks for reading and remember: always wager responsibly.
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