A few days ago I wrote about the demotion of Rich Hill, suggesting that you get rid of him if you are in desperate need of pitching help, but hold on to him if no help is needed, or available.  I have Hill in a few leagues, and so far have yet to drop him.  In one league, my best options would be Mark Hendrickson, Kyle Lohse, Jesse Litsch, or Tim Redding.  It's not that I don't trust these players, it's just a potential thing.

The numbers these guys are putting up are best case scenarios.  Tim Redding is not an ace, and can only go down from his 3.20 ERAand 1.14 WHIP.  On the other hand, Rich Hill has seen his struggles, but looking at his minor league demotion with an optimistic view, he could get those struggles worked out.

In another league I dropped Hill the moment he was demoted.  This was a head to head league and my pitching staff consisted of Erik Bedard, Scott Kazmir, Adam Wainwright, Shaun Marcum and four spots available for streaming pitchers.  In a league where everyone streams, the extra roster spot that Hill was taking up became more valuable to me as an extra streaming spot.  Apparently the same is true for the rest of the league, as Hill remains on the waiver wire.

Finally in my NL only league I did not have Rich Hill, but the owner of Hill cut him loose.  I can't really say that I agree with this move.  This owner has Carlos Zambrano, Dan Haren, Matt Cain, Johnny Cueto, Kyle Lohse, Jeff Suppan, and added Jon Lieber with the demotion of Hill.  The owner has two solid pitchers in Zambrano and Haren, a promising young prospect in Cueto, an inconsistent but often solid Matt Cain, and two decent options for an NL only league.  The addition of Lieber wasn't a necessity.

I added Hill in this league through the waiver wire.  My pitching staff just saw the loss of Gallardo, and now consists of Tim Lincecum, Jair Jurrjens, Ian Snell, Jo-Jo Reyes, Paul Maholm, Wandy Rodriguez, and Max Scherzer, plus Clayton Kershaw waiting in the wings.  This is a 5x5 league, so waiting on Hill won't be as huge of a loss as it would in head to head leagues.

As for Hill, when can we expect him back?  First let's take a look at Hill's numbers over the last two years to see what his usual pace was.  Hill pitched 294.1 innings between 2006 and 2007 with a 4.01 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP.  He allowed 7.74 hits per nine innings, 3.12 BB/9, and 8.35 K/9.  This year in 19.2 innings Hill has allowed a 4.12 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP.  He allowed 5.95 hits per nine innings, 8.24 BB/9, and 6.86 K/9.

The numbers look identical with two exceptions.  The first is the walk total.  Hill is almost walking a batter per inning this year, compared to one every three innings last year.  The second is the amount of hits Hill has allowed.  The last two years he allowed 0.86 hits per inning.  This year he is allowing 0.66 hits per inning.  I don't know if that is because he is walking batters, rather than giving up hits, but it is certainly encouraging.

In Hill's first minor league start he went five innings, allowing seven hits, and two earned runs.  The important numbers were that he struck out five and walked just two.  That's a 9.0 K/9 ratio and a 3.60 BB/9 ratio, which is more in line with his career numbers.  If Hill can throw a few more starts together with this type of control, he will rejoin the Cubs soon, possibly by the end of the month.

If Hill returns by the start of June with a BB/9 ratio close to 3, and a K/9 ratio closer to his career average, along with a hit ratio between his career average and this year's numbers, you can expect the following line for the remainder of the season:

3.60 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 115 Ks

It sounds far fetched, but really the only thing that needs to change is the control aspect, with Hill lowering his walks, and increasing his strikeouts.  If Hill would have walked seven this season, which is in line with his career numbers, his WHIP at this point would have been 1.01.  You could argue that the 11 walks removed from his numbers would reduce the earned runs by at least one, which would have taken his ERA down to 3.66.  When you think about it, the difference between Hill being in the Cubs rotation and pitching at AAA is 11 walks.  If he gets his control sorted out at AAA, expect good things for him over the remainder of the season.  This isn't Barry Zito we're talking about.  This is a pitcher with promise, and one issue to work out, which seems to be coming along just fine so far.