About two years ago I joined AccuScore as a member of the site. While posting picks to the forum I decided to dig up an NFL project I worked on in college. The project was designed to predict NFL games by looking at key stats like the turnover margins, rushing yards, etc.

I started the system in week eight of the 2006 season, and saw huge results. The system picked against the spread at a 69% rate from week eight until the end of the season. It also had a tendency to pick upsets at a great rate, with the highlight being the Miami Dolphins upsetting the undefeated Chicago Bears, with Joey Harrington as Miami's QB.

To see the 2006 system thread, go here:

http://accuscore.com/option,com_fireboard/Itemid,78/func,view/id,55283/catid,11/

To get a detailed description of how the system works, go here:

http://accuscore.com/option,com_myblog/show,Scorpion-.html/Itemid,/

In an effort to encourage more posting of picks on the forums, I have decided to move my NFL system back to the forums for the 2008 season, using this thread for the whole 2008 season.

Last year I ran in to an issue in the first seven weeks. Since I started the 2006 system in week 8, I had no results for week 1-7. As an answer to the first few weeks, I used a history of the 2003-2006 seasons to find trends. That being said, the system didn't have solid results until week 8 rolled around. From week 8 until the end of the season the 2007 system covered 56% of the time.

For week one I will be using the end of the year stats from the 2007 season to make predictions on week one this year. Starting week two I will be using the 2008 stats. I will be reviewing the 2007 results in week 1-7 i the upcoming days. For now I have the week one system picks, which I will save for the next post.

From 2003 to 2007 the system has generated the following results based on the previous year's stats.

8-0: 4-1 when taking the 8-0 team, 3-2 when taking the favorite
7-1: 5-3 when taking the 7-1 team, 6-2 when taking the favorite
6-2: 8-10 when taking the 6-2 team, 7-11 when taking the favorite
6-1-1: 0-2 when taking the 6-1-1 team, 0-2 when taking the favorite
5-3: 14-10 when taking the 5-3 team, 16-8 when taking the favorite
4-4: 8-4 when taking the favorite

Some things to point out:

1. Usually you are supposed to fade the 8-0 and 7-1 picks, but those picks have done well the first weeks of the season, combining for a 9-4 record. I recommend taking the 8-0 and 7-1 picks in week one (there are three 8-0 picks).

2. In 6-2 games, you would have gone 11-7 when you take the underdog in the game. The 6-2 picks have been poor, so I would recommend going with the underdog in these games.

3. The 5-3 picks have been doing well, but the favorite does even better in these game types. This year there is only one 5-3 pick that is not a favorite (Atlanta +3 vs Detroit). Proceed as you wish.

4. There are no picks in the 4-4 games, although the underdog is usually the more successful pick. That is not the case in week one, as the favorites are 8-4. I'm taking the favorites.

5. Not much to go on with the 6-1-1 picks. They're 0-2 and the underdogs are 2-0. Only one of those picks this year.

Now for the 2008 week one picks:

WASH @ NYG (-3.5): NYG 5-3

The 5-3 teams are 14-10, and the favorites are 16-8. I like the Giants in this one. Washington is banged up at receiver, with Santana Moss and James Thrash as the only healthy options. If the Giants get ahead, it will be hard for the Redskins to come back.

The Pick: NYG -3.5

CIN (-1.5) @ BAL: CIN 4-4

The favorites are 8-4 in 4-4 games, making Cicinnati the pick. Baltimore has a horrible offensive line, no standout receivers, an aging defense, and will be starting a rookie quarterback.

The Pick: CIN -1.5

DET (-3) @ ATL: ATL 5-3

Another 5-3 game, but this is the one where the 5-3 team is the underdog. I have two views on this. First is that the Falcons are starting a rookie QB in Matt Ryan, and had the 23rd ranked passing defense last year, which could hurt them against Detroit's offense. However, Atlanta added Michael Turner at RB, and Detroit had the 23rd ranked run defense last year. Detroit also has a questionable running game with Kevin Smith starting. This game will be close, which means I'm taking the points, although this is not a strong pick.

The Pick: ATL +3

HOU @ PIT (-7): PIT 6-1-1

There have only been two 6-1-1 games. In both games the 6-1-1 team lost, and the underdog won and covered. That would make the pick Houston +7. Pittsburgh ranked 25th in sacks allowed last season, and lost pro-bowl guard Alan Faneca. Houston averaged about two sacks a game last season, which should put some pressure on Roethlisberger. I don't think the Texans will win, but I would take them to cover the +7. This is another pick that I don't feel too strongly about.

The Pick: HOU +7

JAC (-3) @ TEN: JAC 5-3

Another 5-3 pick, which means the favorite and the 5-3 team are good choices. Both happen to be Jacksonville. I don't trust Vince Young, I don't trust Tennessee's receivers (actually I'm not certain they have any), and I like Jacksonville's defense to stop the rushing attack.

The Pick: JAC -3

KC @ NE (-16.5): NE 8-0

This is an 8-0 pick, which in week one means you go with the 8-0 team. New England is going to put up some points, and I don't think Brodie Croyle has it in him to keep this game close. I think New England wins by three touchdowns.

The Pick: NE -16.5

NYJ (-3) @ MIA: NYJ 4-4

The favorites are 8-4 in 4-4 games in week one. The Dolphins have undergone some changes, but so have the Jets, adding Brett Favre. The Dolphins added Chad Pennington, who the Jets know very well. If you ask me which quarterback I like to make a quicker adjustment, it would easily be Favre.

The Pick: NYJ -3

SEA (PK) @ BUF: SEA 5-3

There is no current favorite, but the 5-3 picks are 14-10. Despite their injuries at receiver, I like Seattle to win against Buffalo. I'm a fan of Trent Edwards in Buffalo, and I think the team has a lot of young talent, but I like Seattle's defense better, and I'm a believer in Matt Hasselbeck.

The Pick: SEA pk

STL @ PHI (-7.5): PHI 6-2

The underdogs are 11-7 in 6-2 games. St. Louis had a horrible season last year, but I chalk most of that up to injuries. I don't think the Eagles will run away with this game, and I think the 7.5 line is very crucial here.

The Pick: STL +7.5

TB @ NO (-3.5): NO 4-4

Once again, taking the favorites in 4-4 games. The Saints offense was given an extra boost with Jeremy Shockey, and I don't think Tampa Bay's offense will be able to keep up.

The Pick: NO -3.5

ARI (-2) @ SF: ARI 5-3

Another 5-3 pick as the favorite. Kurt Warner makes the Cardinals a much better offense. I'm not sold on J.T. O'Sullivan yet, and I don't think the San Francisco offense can keep up with what Arizona has to offer.

The Pick: ARI -2

CAR @ SD (-10): SD 8-0

I'm taking the Chargers in this game, despite the -10 spread. Aside from the Patriots, I think the Chargers are one of the top teams in the NFL, and with Steve Smith out for the Panthers, I don't trust Carolina to make a successful comeback.

The Pick: SD -10

DAL (-5) @ CLE: DAL 6-2

A lot of worries surround Derek Anderson in Cleveland, but I'm not buying it. I don't know if Cleveland will win this game, but I like them to keep it close, especially with that offense.

The Pick: CLE +5

CHI @ IND (-9.5): IND 8-0

With a horrible QB situation, a questionable running back situation, bad receivers, and going up against the Colts offense, I have no problem going against Chicago in this one.

The Pick: IND -9.5

MIN @ GB (-3): GB 4-4

I'm a fan of Aaron Rodgers. I think he has a great situation. Solid defense, good running back, and talented wide receivers. Meanwhile Minnesota has Tarvaris Jackson at QB, which means aside from their explosive running game, they're not in a significantly better situation than the Packers.

The Pick: GB -3

DEN (-3) @ OAK: DEN 6-2

I have a tough time following the system with this pick. I like Jay Cutler, but he is without Brandon Marshall. Still, I have a hard time picking Oakland with JaMarcus Russell at QB, and with a horrible rushing defense against a traditionally strong Denver rushing game. However, the system pick is Oakland, so that's what I'll list, even if I'm not considering it a strong pick.

The Pick: OAK +3

To recap:

NYG -3.5
CIN -1.5
ATL +3
HOU +7
JAC -3
NE -16.5
NYJ -3
SEA pk
STL +7.5
NO -3.5
ARI -2
SD -10
CLE +5
IND -9.5
GB -3
OAK +3

Tim,

Nice work! Cool system... i just wanted to check with you if your first week records from 2003-2007 are showing the game winners record or winners ATS?

All of my records are ATS. However, last time I checked there was a correlation between outright winners and the team that covers the spread in the NFL. I think it's something like 80% of teams that win the game also cover the spread, which means there are only 20% of games where one team wins, but another team covers.

For this reason I usually take dogs on the money line, and the system has shown some potential to pick upsets (which you can see browsing through the 2006 system thread).

Update:

I moved this thread to the regular section of the forums. I had it in the Pro section, but realized that made it accessible only to certain users.

-Tim

Tim, i know this is an nfl board but i just wanted to ask Are you making any college picks this year? i didnt find anywhere where you had made any college selections.