The NCAAF DLR reports going 22-23 in this week's over/unders. By my results, the DLR went 20-25 which got me to looking at the closing lines being used.

I stopped at the Alabama/Georgia game:

-You have the SIM OU as being 44 which agrees with what I recorded so no problem there.

-You have the Vegas over/under as being 43.5 which disagrees with the closing line I entered in my spreadsheet. The closing line on this game was 46 at several different books. I take an average of 8 different sports books closing lines and I know the average on this game was 46. Matchbook was offering a 43.5 line, among other lines, but you had to lay -124 if you wanted to bet over 43.5. I know this because I bet the under at +124.

I doubt Pinnacle used a 43.5 closing line, but if they did, you would had to have laid, at the very least, -124 to bet the over at that line. So the problem lies in the DLR not factoring in the price it would have to lay. There should be a running results column which takes this into account just like there is with baseball money lines. Otherwise, tracking right and wrong solely based on the closing over/under of one sports book is not a good measure of accuracy. This is especially true when using a site like Pinnacle for closing lines since they often adjust what you have to lay instead of actually moving the number like many other books do.

Post edited by: TPiranha, at: 2008/09/28 23:31