Hi all...

Using Vegas odds of LA: 170 BOS: -200

i calculated the Vegas%Win as follows - LA: 35.71% BOS: 64.29%

Match the Accuscore SIM%Win of LA: 47% and BOS: 53% and it seems like the clear pick is LA given the Vegas odds above.

My question is... what is the difference between a "side value prediction" and a "money line prediction"??

following the example given on the Accuscore website:
http://accuscore.com/download/DLRARCHIVE.pdf

LA is given the side value prediction because the SIM%Win outweighs the Vegas%Win. Boston is give the money line prediction because BOS is over 50% chance to win??? This doesn't make sense to me.

When the Accuscore system gives a side value prediction don't you use that information to bet that team on the money line?? Or does it mean you should bet the spread??

My guts are telling me to bet LA on both the Spread and the Money Line.

Please help. Does side value prediction mean to bet that team's money line (LA -170) or spread (LA +4)?

Cheers.

The ML prediction is whatever team is winning the majority of simulations. In the example you gave, Boston would be the ML prediction.

The SV prediction is the team that AccuScore simulations like better than Vegas. In your example, Vegas has LA winning 35.71%, while AccuScore has LA winning 47%. AccuScore favors LA in this game more than Vegas, so LA is the SV prediction.

These are just easy terms to tell you which team is winning the majority of simulations, and which team AccuScore likes more than Vegas.

Thanks for the response.

i understand that side value prediction means that Accuscore likes the team better than Vegas does, my question is what do we do with that information?

In my example below. LA is the SV prediction. LA is predicted to what? ... win outright? beat the spread?


... or does it simply mean that Accuscore predicts that LA will win more often than Vegas predicts LA will win?

Hmmm i think that must be what you're trying to tell me... please confirm. Thanks.

ps i think it's the word "prediction" that is throwing me off.

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