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TOPIC: Re:betting predictions
#71594
wojo (User)
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betting predictions 2008/09/16 13:28  
For example kansas State is a 3.5 favorite over lousiville in college football and next to it it shows winning percentage 63% does that mean 63% of the time kansas state will cover the point spread?
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#71595
Chickenmilk (User)
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Re:betting predictions 2008/09/16 19:41  
That is the percentage of times the team covered the spread in simulations. Real world results can vary.
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#71597
twilliams (Admin)
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Re:betting predictions 2008/09/16 20:37  
That is the amount of times K State is covering the spread in AccuScore simulations. Basically the 63% breaks down like this:

In 6300 simulations, K State covered the spread.
In 3700 simulations, K State didn't cover the spread.

Of course 63% isn't a guarantee, and AccuScore does better forecasting some teams over other teams. It's best to check the DLR to see some of the trends AccuScore is having success with, and to use AccuScore simulations to strengthen your own analysis.

For example, Air Force is a 7.5 point underdog against a powerful Utah offense. The past three years Air Force is 1-2 against Utah, and both of their losses came by three points. Air Force has a bye next week, making this a huge circle game. I think they're going to give everything they have, and while Utah may win, I don't think it will be more than a touchdown. AccuScore confirms this with Air Force covering 60.3% of the time, and is 8-6 this year when the home team is an underdog between 4.5 and 9.5 points.

Another example would be Arkansas. Alabama is currently a 9.5 point favorite but has only covered that type of spread once against Arkansas in the last five years. They've also lost their last two trips at Arkansas, and they have a big match-up against Georgia next week, which is at Georgia. Arkansas had a bye last week with their game against Texas postponed, which means they come in to this big match-up fresh, having a week off to rest. However, AccuScore has Alabama covering in 53.6% of simulations, which means I wouldn't be as confident in this pick, especially since AccuScore is 8-6 when the home team is an underdog between 4.5 and 9.5 points.

Just a few examples of how I would use my analysis combined with AccuScore projections to determine which picks I would take. That being said, don't follow my picks. I'm not exactly a college football expert.
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#71630
TPiranha (User)
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Re:betting predictions 2008/09/23 08:39  
TW-

Great analysis on Air Force. I liked it so much that I added them to my list of bets that day.

It paid for my membership for quite some time so thank you.
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#71632
twilliams (Admin)
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Re:betting predictions 2008/09/23 23:25  
Glad I could help.
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