Saint,

I make college football picks, but my analysis wouldn't really be anything to look forward to. I don't really follow a lot of the players at the college level, except for the guys who are getting ready to enter the NFL. Usually I focus more on team tendencies, like:

-I always take the over in Big East games, because they usually play without a defense
-I always bet against UVA, due to the fact that their focus in the first half is on the Appletini's they will be drinking at half time
-I always bet against Ohio State when they play a scrambling quarterback, or the SEC

But the problem is that the player knowledge would help. For example, if I knew today that Ohio had a scrambling QB, I probably wouldn't have taken Ohio State.

I do best with the NFL, but I wouldn't feel comfortable giving people my college picks. However, I'm hoping that my posting of NFL picks will encourage others to post their picks for other sports, or even the NFL.

Tim:

Will your picks be posted for today's NFL?

Thanks,

Mc

In the second post of this thread I posted the system picks. If you're wondering what I am personally taking today:

Cincinnati -2.5
Atlanta +160 (moneyline)
Jacksonville -3
NE -15.5
NYJ -3
Seattle -105 (ML)
Stl +9
NO -3.5
Ari -2.5
SD -9
Cle +6
Ind -9.5
GB -2
Oak +135 (ML)

I'm avoiding the Steelers game due to the fact that I'm a Steelers fan and I don't want to pick against my team (or root for that pick to win). The Steelers allowed a ton of sacks last year, lost Alan Faneca, and I don't trust their line against guys like Mario Williams and DeMeco Ryans. I think Pittsburgh will win a close game, which is why I would probably pick them on the moneyline, parlaying them with San Diego and Indianapolis, each moneyline picks as well, for -121 odds.

Tim:

Where are the system picks? i.e. "2nd post"?

Thank you,

Mc

Yes, 2nd post in the thread.

I'm also taking the following in a 7 team teaser at +900 odds:

Pit -0.5/NE -9.5/NO +2.5/SD -3/DAL +0/Sea +7.5/Cin +3.5

The week one results were:

NYG -3.5 WIN
CIN -1.5 LOSS
ATL +3 WIN
HOU +7 LOSS
JAC -3 LOSS
NE -16.5 LOSS
NYJ -3 WIN
SEA pk LOSS
STL +7.5 LOSS
NO -3.5 WIN
ARI -2 WIN
SD -10 LOSS
CLE +5 LOSS
IND -9.5 LOSS
GB -3 WIN
OAK +3 LOSS

Not a good start at 6-10. A lot of people who have followed the system know this, but I'll note two things:

1. The system only has proven success from week 8 on the last two years. Proceed with caution in the first seven weeks.

2. The system is heavily dependent on trends. In 2006, fading the 8-0 and 7-1 picks was a huge success. In 2007 the 6-2 and 5-3 picks did very well.

The difference last week between winning and losing fell to the 6-2 and 6-1-1 games. From 2003-2007 the 6-2 picks were 8-10, and 7-11 when taking the favorite. From 2003-2007 the 6-1-1 picks were just 0-2. I probably should have advised sticking with the 6-2 and 6-1-1 picks, and proceeding with caution, rather than being crafty and fading these picks.

Week two is based on the week one stats. Read this disclaimer about week one stats:

http://accuscore.com/option,com_myblog/show,NFL-System-Final-Week-2-Projections.html/Itemid,/

Here are the week two trends:

8-0: 4-2 when taking the pick. 4-2 when taking the favorite.
7-1: 2-3 when taking the pick. 4-1 when taking the favorite.
7-0-1: 3-1 when taking the pick. 3-1 when taking the favorite.
6-1-1: 1-3 when taking the pick. 4-0 when taking the favorite.
5-2-1: 2-10 when taking the pick. 6-6 when taking the favorite.
5-1-2: 2-0 when taking the pick. 1-1 when taking the favorite.
4-3-1: 6-8 when taking the pick. 4-10 when taking the favorite.
4-2-2: 2-2 when taking the pick. 2-2 when taking the favorite.
3-3-2: 0-2 when taking the favorite.

Not a lot of strong trends here, however the close games (4-3-1, 4-2-2, 3-3-2) are 14-6 when taking the favorites. I had a theory last year that these games appeared close, and Vegas knew something the public didn't.

That being said, here are the week two system picks:

BUF @ JAC (-5): BUF 6-1-1
CHI @ CAR (-3): CHI 4-2-2
GB (-3.5) @ DET: GB 7-1
IND (-2) @ MIN: MIN 5-1-2
NO (-1) @ WAS: NO 4-2-2
NYG (-8.5) @ STL: NYG 5-2-1
OAK @ KC (-3.5): OAK 4-3-1
TEN @ CIN (-1): TEN 6-1-1
ATL @ TB (-7): ATL 7-0-1
SF @ SEA (-6.5): SEA 3-3-2
BAL @ HOU (-4.5): BAL 7-0-1
MIA @ ARI (-6.5): ARI 8-0
NE @ NYJ (-1.5): NYJ 4-2-2
SD (-1) @ DEN: DEN 5-1-2
PIT (-6) @ CLE: PIT 5-2-1
PHI @ DAL (-7): PHI 4-2-2

The official system picks are:

BUF +5
CHI +3
GB -3.5
MIN +2
NO -1
NYG -8.5
OAK +3.5
TEN +1
ATL +7
SEA -6.5
BAL +4.5
ARI -6.5
NYJ -1.5
DEN +1
PIT -6
PHI +7

As for what I'm doing this week:

The picks I like the best are the 8-0, 7-1, and 7-0-1 games.

Arizona -6.5
Green Bay -3
Atlanta +7
Baltimore +4.5

I'm going with the favorites in the 6-1-1 games, which means I'm fading each pick. I know this didn't work last week, but I like Jacksonville at home over Buffalo, and I like Cincinnati at home against a Kerry Collins led Tennessee Titans.

Jacksonville -5
Cincinnati -1

For the close games (4-3-1, 4-2-2, 3-3-2) I am going with the favorites, which means I'm fading the Philadelphia, Chicago, and Oakland picks.

Carolina -3
New Orleans -1
Kansas City -3.5
Seattle -6.5
NY Jets -1.5
Dallas -7

I'll probably just take the pick in the 5-1-2 and 5-2-1 games.

Minnesota +2
NY Giants -8.5
Denver +1
Pittsburgh -6

Like I said, my strongest feelings are on the first group of picks. My confidence strength decreases in order of the groups above.

Good luck to everyone this week!