The updated trends:

8-0: 7-5 when fading the 8-0 pick
7-1: 9-11 when fading the 7-1 pick (8-5 when the 7-1 pick is favored by 7 or more)
6-2: 14-10
6-1-1: 6-3
5-3: 14-23
5-1-2: 2-1 (odd trend, but we have one this week)
4-4: 13-10 when taking the underdog
4-3-1: 12-8 when taking the underdog
3-3-2: 3-1 when taking the underdog (there's actually two of these this week)

The picks for week 13:

TEN (-11) @ DET: TEN 8-0
SEA @ DAL (-12): DAL 6-2
ARI @ PHI (-3): ARI 6-2
DEN @ NYJ (-9): NYJ 6-2
SF @ BUF (-6.5): BUF 7-1
NO @ TB (-3.5): TB 5-3
CAR @ GB (-3): CAR 3-3-2
NYG (-3.5) @ WAS: NYG 6-1-1
BAL (-7) @ CIN: BAL 8-0
MIA (-8.5) @ STL: MIA 8-0
IND (-4.5) @ CLE: CLE 3-3-2
ATL @ SD (-4.5): ATL 7-1
PIT @ NE (-1): NE 5-1-2
KC @ OAK (-3): KC 4-4
CHI @ MIN (-3.5): CHI 5-3
JAC @ HOU (-3): JAC 4-3-1

That makes the picks:
Detroit +11
Dallas -12
Arizona +3
NY Jets -9
San Francisco +6.5
Tampa Bay -3.5
Carolina +3
NY Giants -3.5
Cincinnati +7
St Louis +8.5
Cleveland +4.5
San Diego -4.5
New England -1
Kansas City +3
Chicago +3.5
Jacksonville +3

Good luck to all, and Happy Thanksgiving!

Edit: Forgot the Miami game.

Post edited by: twilliams, at: 2008/11/27 18:55

Tim,
Are you going to post your picks this week?

Hey what's the deal with taking the the Browns +4.5 over the Colts? I was thinking about laying 1100 to win 1000 at -110. Let me know what you think.

The updated trends:

8-0: 8-7 when fading the 8-0 pick
7-1: 10-12 when fading the 7-1 pick (8-5 when the 7-1 team is favored by 7 or more)
7-0-1: 2-2 when fading the 7-0-1 team
6-2: 15-12
6-1-1: 7-3
5-3: 14-25
5-2-1: 3-8
4-4: 14-10 when taking the underdog
4-3-1: 12-9 when taking the underdog

This week's picks:

OAK @ SD (-9.5): SD 4-3-1
CIN @ IND (-13.5): IND 6-1-1
JAC @ CHI (-6.5): CHI 6-1-1
HOU @ GB (-6): GB 5-2-1
CLE @ TEN (-13.5): TEN 8-0
MIN (-10) @ DET: MIN 7-0-1
WAS @ BAL (-5): BAL 6-2
PHI @ NYG (-7): NYG 7-1
ATL @ NO (-3): ATL 4-4
NYJ (-3.5) @ SF: NYJ 7-1
MIA @ BUF (-1): MIA 7-1
KC @ DEN (-9.5): KC 5-3
STL @ ARI (-14): ARI 7-1
DAL @ PIT (-3): PIT 5-3
NE (-4.5) @ SEA: NE 6-2
TB @ CAR (-3): CAR 4-3-1

That makes the picks:

Oakland +9.5
Indianapolis -13.5
Chicago -6.5
Green Bay -6
Cleveland +13.5
Detroit +10
Baltimore -5
Philadelphia +7
Atlanta +3
San Francisco +3.5
Buffalo -1
Kansas City +9.5
St. Louis +14
Pittsburgh -3
New England -4.5
Tampa Bay +3

Good luck to everyone this week!

EDIT: Added the Min/Det spread.

Post edited by: twilliams, at: 2008/12/07 16:51

Updated trends:

8-0: 8-7 when fading the 8-0 picks
7-1: 10-12 when fading the 7-1 picks (9-6 when the 7-1 team is favored by 7 or more)
6-2: 16-13
6-1-1: 9-3
5-3: 16-25
5-2-1: 3-9
4-4: 14-11 when taking the underdog
4-3-1: 12-11 when taking the underdog

Here are the picks:

NO @ CHI (-3): CHI 4-3-1
GB (-1) @ JAC: JAC 4-4
DET @ IND (-17): IND 7-1
WAS (-7) @ CIN: WAS 7-1
TB @ ATL (-3): ATL 5-3
SF @ MIA (-6.5): MIA 7-1
SEA (-1) @ STL: SEA 6-2
BUF @ NYJ (-9): NYJ 7-1
TEN (-3) @ HOU: TEN 7-1
PIT @ BAL (-3): BAL 6-1-1
DEN @ CAR (-9): CAR 7-1
SD (-5.5) @ KC: SD 6-2
MIN @ ARI (-3): ARI 5-2-1
NE (-7) @ OAK: NE 4-3-1
NYG @ DAL (-3): NYG 8-0
CLE @ PHI (-14): CLE 4-4

That makes the picks:

New Orleans +3
Jacksonville +1
Detroit +17
Cincinnati +7
Atlanta -3
San Francisco +6.5
Seattle -1
Buffalo +9
Houston +3
Baltimore -3
Denver +9
San Diego -5.5
Arizona -3
Oakland +7
Dallas -3
Cleveland +14

Good luck to all this week!

The trends so far:

7-1: 16-16 when fading the 7-1 team (12-7 when the 7-1 team is favored by 7 or more)
6-2: 17-14
6-1-1: 9-4
5-2-1: 3-10
4-4: 15-12 when taking the underdog
4-3-1: 12-12 when taking the underdog

The games:

IND (-5.5) @ JAC: JAC 4-4
BAL @ DAL (-4): BAL 6-1-1
PIT (-1) @ TEN: TEN 5-2-1
MIA (-4) @ KC: MIA 7-1
ARI @ NE (-9): ARI 4-4
CIN @ CLE (-3): CLE 6-2
PHI (-5) @ WAS: WAS 4-4
SF (-5.5) @ STL: SF 5-2-1
ATL @ MIN (-3.5): ATL 4-4
NO (-7) @ DET: NO 7-1
CAR @ NYG (-3): NYG 6-2
NYJ (-4.5) @ SEA: NYJ 6-2
HOU (-7) @ OAK: OAK 4-4
BUF @ DEN (-7): BUF 4-3-1
SD @ TB (-3.5): SD 4-4
GB @ CHI (-4): CHI 4-3-1

That makes the picks:

Jacksonville +5.5
Baltimore +4
Tennessee +1
Kansas City +4
Arizona +9
Cleveland -3
Washington +5
San Francisco -5.5
Atlants +3.5
Detroit +7
NY Giants -3
NY Jets -4.5
Oakland +7
Buffalo +7
San Diego +3.5
Green Bay +4

Personally, I will be taking the following approach this week:

Underdogs in the 4-4 and 4-3-1 games
Miami -4 (not going to fade this 7-1 pick)
Fading the 5-2-1 picks (which means STL +5.5 and Pit -1)
Taking the 6-1-1 and 6-2 picks

And my big call of the week:

The Detroit Lions will upset the New Orleans Saints. Brees plays horrible on the road, Kevin Smith and Calvin Johnson will keep pace with the Saints, and New Orleans as a team plays bad on the road, with just one win this season. Detroit is not exactly a powerhouse at home, but this is their best chance at avoiding an 0-16 record, and I think they give this game their best shot of the year.

Good luck to all this week!