Good to see the system again Tim. I haven't visited this year, but will be paying a lot more attention now that we passed the half-way point.

18 games next year?? I think it will be a go as long as they get rid of some training camp and exhibition games.

Nice to see you back Steve.

As for the 18 games, there's good and bad. Obviously more football is good. You also might have a chance of separating some of the playoff races, instead of having everyone bunched up at 8-8 and 9-7. Of course they could be bunched up at 9-9 and 10-8, but I think the better teams would benefit from two additional games.

The bad is that with additional games, each individual game is worth less. An 0-3 start means nothing, because you can still go 15-3. A 3-5 team, like the Browns, would still be in it. That's good for the entertainment value of the league, but they would need to make other adjustments, like moving the trade deadline back (everyone would be in the race in week six/seven). You also have more injuries with more games, and it would be harder for rookies to go from 11 games in college to 18 games in the pros, which means you could see fatigue hurting some teams down the stretch.

Overall I think it's a good thing, as long as the problems are ironed out, which I believe they would be. Adds an extra 32 games of betting, two extra weeks for fantasy football, and hopefully an earlier start to the football season.

The system is largely built on trends. 8-0, 7-1, 6-2 etc. Fade the 8-0 and 7-1 games, take the 6-2 and 5-3 games, and bet the underdog in 4-4, 4-3-1, and other similar games. Whenever I go too far with these trends, like "Take the home dogs in 5-3 games, and road favorites in 6-2 games" I either have a huge week, or a horrible week.

However, I do believe in keeping records for each trend, so we can tell which ones are the best to take. I'm not a handicapper. I don't really want to be a handicapper. I would rather spend 5 minutes writing down the lines, 5 minutes downloading the stats, and 5 minutes picking out system plays, rather than spending a lot of time researching the weather, player injuries, betting trends, team histories, player histories, public betting percentages, and then have to provide analysis on top of that. I have enough to worry about dealing with that on a fantasy football level. I don't want to do it on a point spread level. That's why I love the system. Somehow it spits out winners without the hours of handicapping, and it's all free. And since I like to know what my strongest picks are (because even though it's not smart betting, I like laying a nice 3 team parlay each week on my favorite picks), I know you all would probably be interested in the strength of each pick. Therefore, allow me to introduce the records of each pick, which I will do every week before the system picks:

8-0: 6-3 (while fading)
7-1: 6-8 (while fading, although 5-3 when the favorite is favored by 7 or more)
6-2: 10-7
6-1-1: 5-3
5-3: 9-17 (Most disappointing picks this year, although they're 5-4 in the last two weeks, including 2-1 last week, so maybe they're coming around)
5-2-1: 2-7 (also disappointing)
4-4: 7-7 (when taking the underdog, although 5-4 after week 1)
4-3-1: 10-5 (when taking the underdog, including 5-2 the last 3 weeks)

Those are the only trends we need this week. Now here are the picks for week 10:

DEN @ CLE (-3.5): DEN 4-4
JAC (-6.5) @ DET: JAC 8-0
TEN (-3) @ CHI: CHI 4-3-1
BUF @ NE (-3.5): BUF 4-4
NO @ ATL (-1): NO 5-3
STL @ NYJ (-9): NYJ 6-2
SEA @ MIA (-9.5): MIA 7-1
GB @ MIN (-1): GB 4-3-1
CAR (-9.5) @ OAK: CAR 5-3
IND @ PIT (-4): PIT 5-2-1
KC @ SD (-16): SD 4-3-1
NYG @ PHI (-3): NYG 6-1-1
BAL (-1) @ HOU: BAL 7-1
SF @ ARI (-9.5): ARI 7-1

That makes the system picks:

Denver +3.5
Detroit +6.5
Chicago +3
Buffalo +3.5
New Orleans +1
NY Jets -9
Seattle +9.5
Green Bay +1
Carolina -9.5
Pittsburgh -4
Kansas City +16
NY Giants +3
Houston +1
San Francisco +9.5

Looking at the above trends, I'd be cautious about New Orleans, Carolina, and Houston. San Francisco and Seattle are a bit risky, but the 7-1 fades do best with the high point spreads, and each of those are pretty high. Pittsburgh will also be the pick when the spread comes out, but the 5-2-1 picks have been horrible.

Personally, I like the following teams on the ML: Denver, Detroit, Chicago, Buffalo, New Orleans (if you're taking them, might as well make it a ML pick), Green Bay, NY Giants, Houston (SEE: New Orleans), and a half unit on Kansas City.

Good luck to everyone this week!

EDIT: Added the Pittsburgh spread.

Post edited by: twilliams, at: 2008/11/09 20:34

Post edited by: twilliams, at: 2008/11/09 20:35

An update on the system trend records (only trends that are applicable this week):

8-0: 6-4 when fading the 8-0 team
7-1: 8-9 when fading the 7-1 team, but 7-3 when the 7-1 team is favored by 7 or more
6-2: 11-7
5-3: 10-18
5-1-2: 1-1 (a rare trend, but we have one this week)
4-4: 8-8 when taking the underdog (2-4 in the last 4 weeks after a good start)

The system is doing well with the 8-0 picks, and the 7-1 picks are good fades when the 7-1 team is a big favorite. The 6-2 picks are solid, but everything else has been struggling. Last week I pointed these trends out and we saw the system go 0-1 on the 8-0 fades, 2-0 on the big 7-1 fades, 0-1 on the small 7-1 fades (Baltimore was 7-1 at -1), 1-0 on the 6-2 games, and 2-2 on the 5-3 and 4-4 games combined (1-1 each).

This week's system plays:

NYJ @ NE (-3.5): NYJ 4-4
DEN @ ATL (-6.5): ATL 6-2
OAK @ MIA (-10): MIA 6-2
BAL @ NYG (-7): NYG 5-3
HOU @ IND (-9): HOU 4-4
TEN (-1) @ JAC: TEN 5-1-2
PHI (-9.5) @ CIN: PHI 8-0
CHI @ GB (-3.5): CHI 4-3-1
NO (-5) @ KC: KC 4-4
DET @ CAR (-14): CAR 7-1
MIN @ TB (-4): TB 5-3
STL @ SF (-6.5): STL 4-4
ARI (-3) @ SEA: ARI 6-2
SD @ PIT (-5): SD 4-4
DAL (-1) @ WAS: WAS 5-3
CLE @ BUF (-5): CLE 5-3

That makes the system plays:

NY Jets +3.5
Atlanta -6.5
Miami -10
NY Giants -7
Houston +9
Tennessee -1
Cincinnati +9.5
Chicago +3.5
Kansas City +5
Detroit +14
Tampa Bay -4
St Louis +6.5
Arizona -3
San Diego +5
Washington +1
Cleveland +5

I'll probably take the following teams on the ML: NY Jets, Chicago, Kansas City, St. Louis, San Diego, Washington, Cleveland, and a half unit play on the Bengals and Lions.

I'm going to update the spreads for Sunday's games later this weekend, but the picks will remain the same (assuming none of those 4-4 games have a drastic swing, making a 4.5 dog turn in to a favorite).

Good luck to everyone this week!

EDIT: Forgot the DAL @ WAS game.

EDIT: Added the Chi @ GB game, and updated the Sunday/Monday spreads.

Post edited by: twilliams, at: 2008/11/12 19:42

Post edited by: twilliams, at: 2008/11/16 07:58

Tim, I like looking at different betting systems and yours really has my interest with the stats you use and an explaination with them. I do have a question about it though. If I understand this system correctly, If team A is a dominant team and team B is a very weak team regardless of who the teams are, and the matchup is 8-0 for instance, the system will never pick the dominating team? I understand it is trend based but, I just want to make sure I got it right.






Thank you,
Jay

Jay,

That is correct. If there's a game, like Chicago vs St. Louis this week, and Chicago wins all 8 stat categories, the system pick is Chicago 8-0, but the system does best when fading these picks, in this case taking St. Louis.