twilliams,

i know you've put a lot of work into figuring out this system... For me the beginning of the season always seems tough to peg. i'm curious about the results of the first 5 weeks under your system. How's it looking?

good luck all

twilliams wrote:

I also credit Goldmember's comment in this post for bringing this change. It only took a year, but I'm finally getting rid of the trends.

No problem Tim, just here to help

caley wrote:
twilliams,

i know you've put a lot of work into figuring out this system... For me the beginning of the season always seems tough to peg. i'm curious about the results of the first 5 weeks under your system. How's it looking?

good luck all

Just following the rules of the system (fade 8-0 and 7-1, bet 6 and 5 win teams, underdogs in all close games) the records break down as this:

Week 1: 11-5 (based on previous season's stats)
Week 2: 10-4-1
Week 3: 4-12
Week 4: 4-9
Week 5: 9-5

In 2006 the system started in week 8 and had success the whole season. In 2007 the system struggled the first few weeks, but had success from week seven until the end of the season. I'm hoping that this past week was a sign that the system is ready. Last week's breakdown:

7-1: 1-1 when fading
6-2: 3-0 (also 0-1 on 6-1-1)
5-3: 0-2 (Hou and Bal, should have been wins)
5-2-1: 1-0 (Miami, also won the game)
4-4: 2-0 when taking underdog
4-3-1: 2-0 when taking underdog (Sunday night and Monday night upsets)

Not only did the system produce a winning week this past week, but it led to several upset calls, including Miami, Washington, Atlanta, Pittsburgh, and Minnesota (and just missing on Houston, Baltimore, and Tampa Bay).

Week 6 System Picks

A reminder of the system rules:

-Fade any pick with 8 or 7 wins
-Bet any pick with 6 or 5 wins
-Take the underdog in any close game (ex: 4-4, 4-3-1, 3-3-2)

OAK @ NO (-7.5): NO 4-3-1
BAL @ IND (-4): BAL 6-2
CIN @ NYJ (-6): NYJ 8-0
CAR @ TB (-1): CAR 4-3-1
DET @ MIN (-13): MIN 8-0
CHI (-3) @ ATL: CHI 4-4
MIA @ HOU (-3): MIA 6-2
STL @ WAS (-13.5): WAS 8-0
JAC @ DEN (-3.5): JAC 4-3-1
PHI (-4.5) @ SF: PHI 6-1-1
DAL (-5) @ ARI: DAL 5-3
GB @ SEA (-1): GB 3-3-2
NE @ SD (-5): SD 5-3
NYG (-9) @ CLE: NYG 7-1

That makes the ATS picks:

Oakland +7.5
Baltimore +4
Cincinnati +6
Carolina +1
Detroit +13
Atlanta +3
Miami +3
St. Louis +13.5
Jacksonville +3.5
Philadelphia -4.5
Dallas -5
Green Bay +1
San Diego -5
Cleveland +9

I like the following dogs on the ML: Baltimore, Cincinnati, Carolina, Atlanta, Miami, Jacksonville, Green Bay. I may also go for a half unit risk on the ML for St. Louis and Cleveland, just because traditionally the 8-0 and 7-1 fades have been upsets (my guess to this is the underdog considers this a circle game).

Last week was huge for the system. The picks went 9-5, with the following breakdown:

8-0: 2-1 when fading
7-1: 1-0 when fading
6-2: 1-1 (1-0 on 6-1-1)
5-3: 1-1
4-4: 1-0 on the underdog
4-3-1: 1-2 on the underdog
3-3-2: 1-0 on the underdog

Cleveland, St. Louis, Detroit, and Cincinnati were the 8-0 and 7-1 fades. I said last week that I would lay half a unit on the moneyline for St. Louis and Cleveland, and both were big wins. The system also led to a few more upsets, like Atlanta and Jacksonville, and came close with Miami and Detroit.

A note on the Cincinnati game: Carson Palmer was out, which makes a big impact on the Bengals. The system only takes in to consideration the year to date stats, which means that it is up to you to determine whether you still want to fade the New York Jets, an 8-0 pick, with Palmer out. Regardless of what I decide to do, I don't alter the system pick, as you can't alter year to date stats. So the Cinci game was an 8-0 game in favor of the Jets, and it stayed that way, with a loss going to the 8-0 fade pick. I also mentioned I would take them on the moneyline, but decided against that.

That being said, I'm optimistic about the system again. Over the last two weeks the system rules are 18-10, with a few big upsets, including both Monday night upsets the last two weeks. As a reminder of the system rules:

1. Fade any 8 win or 7 win team (EX: 8-0, 7-1, 7-0-1)
2. Take any team with 5 or 6 wins (EX: 6-2, 6-1-1, 5-3, 5-2-1)
3. Take the underdog in any game with less than 5 wins (EX: 4-4, 4-3-1, 3-3-2)

That being said, here are the week seven picks:

TEN (-9) @ KC: TEN 7-1
SD @ BUF (-1): SD 6-2
PIT (-9.5) @ CIN: PIT 6-1-1
BAL @ MIA (-3): BAL 4-3-1
DAL (-7.5) @ STL: DAL 6-2
MIN @ CHI (-3): CHI 4-2-2
NO @ CAR (-3): NO 5-3
SF @ NYG (-10.5): NYG 7-1
DET @ HOU (-9.5): HOU 5-2-1
NYJ (-3) @ OAK: NYJ 4-3-1
CLE @ WAS (-9): WAS 6-2
IND (-1) @ GB: GB 6-2
SEA @ TB (-10.5): TB 5-3
DEN @ NE (-3): NE 4-4

That makes the system picks:

Kansas City +9
San Diego +1
Pittsburgh -9.5
Baltimore +3
Dallas -7.5
Minnesota +3
New Orleans +3
San Francisco +10.5
Houston -9.5
Oakland +3
Washington -9
Green Bay +1
Tampa Bay -10.5
Denver +3

I will probably take the following teams on the moneyline: SD, Bal, Min, NO, Oak, GB, Den. I will also probably lay half a unit on the Chiefs and 49ers, hoping to get one big upset from the 7-1 fades. Note that my plays don't go in to the system record. I'm merely letting you know what I like from the system each week.

Good luck to all this week!

EDIT: Added the Dallas game.

Post edited by: twilliams, at: 2008/10/19 17:09

You forgot the Dallas game.