When I first started this system I deemed it a failure after a few weeks. I was betting the "locks", going with the 8-0 and 7-1 picks, rather than the 5-3 and 6-2 picks. As many know, the 8-0 and 7-1 picks have a tendency to be wrong, as they usually are the obvious pick to the general betting public.

Once I "revived" the system on the AccuScore forums, I quickly noticed how horrible the 8-0 and 7-1 picks were. I also noticed that the underdogs had a lot of success in the 4-4 and 4-3-1 games, aka, the close games. So I had two trends: fade the 8-0 and 7-1 picks, and go with the underdogs in the close games. These trends led to the most profitable picks of the 2006 season. The question was, what could make the 5-3 and 6-2 picks better?

Despite the fact that the 5-3 and 6-2 picks were doing very well, I decided to look for trends, and found a few minor trends. Going in to the 2007 season I dug for more trends due to the lack of system data in weeks 1-7. Things all went downhill from there.

I was reading over my Week 3 projections from last year, looking for trends actually, and I noticed two things. First, 15 of the 16 games this week have home favorites. That's pretty astonishing. When I saw last year's schedule, I noticed that only three of the games had road favorites. So I decided to see how the system did that week, and came to a shocking conclusion.

I ended up going 4-9-2 last year. However, if you would have followed the original system rules (fade the 8-0 and 7-1 picks, take the underdog in the close games, take the system pick in everything else) you would have gone 9-4-2. The 7-1 games actually went 3-0 when taking the pick, which I believe is a legit early season trend, since the public doesn't know yet which teams are truly dominant.

So what does this mean? No more trends. I'm going back to the basics. The rules are:

8-0, 7-1: Fade the pick*
6-2, 5-3: Take the pick
4-4, 4-3-1: Take the underdog

These are the most common game types. I'm still taking the pick if it's something like 5-2-1, and I'm still taking the underdog if it's something like 3-3-2. Also I'd like to note that I will either be avoiding the 8-0 and 7-1 plays, or taking the pick for the early part of the season.

If we would have followed the above rules for the first two weeks, the system record would be 19-11-1 at this point. So here are the system picks for week 3 with no analysis and no trends. Just the picks. Someone please stop me if I decide to change any of these picks later in the week.

I should also note that some people went 11-3 with the week 3 picks last year. Those would be the people who were wiser than myself and took the system by the rules. I can't promise a similar result this year, but I'm thinking it will be a big week.

I also credit Goldmember's comment in this post for bringing this change. It only took a year, but I'm finally getting rid of the trends.

Week Three

KC @ ATL (-5.5): ATL 7-1
OAK @ BUF (-9.5): BUF 5-2-1
HOU @ TEN (-5): TEN 6-0-2
CIN @ NYG (-13.5): NYG 6-2
ARI @ WAS (-3): ARI 5-2-1
MIA @ NE (-12.5): NE 6-2
TB @ CHI (-3): CHI 5-2-1
CAR @ MIN (-3.5): MIN 3-3-2
STL @ SEA (-9.5): SEA 6-2
DET @ SF (-4): SF 4-3-1
NO @ DEN (-5.5): DEN 7-0-1
PIT @ PHI (-3): PHI 4-2-2
JAC @ IND (-5.5): IND 4-4
CLE @ BAL (-2.5): BAL 7-0-1
DAL (-3) @ GB: GB 5-3
NYJ @ SD (-9): SD 3-3-2

That would make the picks:

Atlanta -5.5
Buffalo -9.5
Tennessee -5
NY Giants -13.5
Arizona +3
New England -12.5
Chicago -3
Carolina +3.5
Seattle -9.5
Detroit +4
Denver -5.5
Pittsburgh +3
Jacksonville +5.5
Baltimore -2.5
Green Bay +3
NY Jets +9

Note that I took the system pick in all of the above games, except for the 4-4, 4-3-1, 4-2-2, and 3-3-2 games. In those games I went with the underdog.

Good luck to all this week!

Tim,
I see you have the Jets tonight, any feel on the over/under?
Thanks

No intro this week, just the system picks.

DEN (-9.5) @ KC: DEN 6-2
CLE @ CIN (-3.5): CIN 5-2-1
HOU @ JAC (-7.5): JAC 7-1
ARI @ NYJ (-1): ARI 7-1
SF @ NO (-5): SF 5-3
ATL @ CAR (-7): ATL 5-3
MIN @ TEN (-3): MIN 5-3
GB @ TB (-1): GB 5-3
BUF (-8) @ STL: BUF 7-1
SD (-7.5) @ OAK: SD 4-4
WAS @ DAL (-11.5): DAL 5-3
PHI (-3) @ CHI: PHI 3-3-2
BAL @ PIT (-5): BAL 4-3-1

That would make the picks:

Denver -9.5
Cincinnati -3.5
Jacksonville -7.5
Arizona +1
San Francisco +5
Atlanta +7
Minnesota +3
Green Bay +1
Buffalo -8
Oakland +7.5
Dallas -11.5
Chicago +3
Baltimore +5

Week 5 - Only three more weeks until the system traditionally kicks in...

IND (-3) @ HOU: HOU 5-3
TEN (-2.5) @ BAL: BAL 5-3
SD (-6) @ MIA: MIA 5-2-1
KC @ CAR (-9.5): CAR 6-2
WAS @ PHI (-6): PHI 4-4
CHI (-3) @ DET: CHI 7-1
ATL @ GB (-3.5): ATL 6-2
SEA @ NYG (-7): NYG 6-2
TB @ DEN (-3): DEN 4-4
NE (-3) @ SF: NE 4-4
BUF @ ARI (-1.5): BUF 6-1-1
CIN @ DAL (-16): DAL 7-1
PIT @ JAC (-5.5): JAC 4-3-1
MIN @ NO (-3): MIN 4-3-1

That makes the ATS picks:

Houston +3
Baltimore +2.5
Miami +6
Carolina -9.5
Washington +6
Chicago -3 (or Detroit +3 if you're fading the 7-1 picks)
Atlanta +3.5
NY Giants -7
Tampa Bay +3
San Francisco +3
Buffalo +1.5
Dallas -16 (or Cincinnati +16 if you're fading the 7-1 picks)
Pittsburgh +5.5
Minnesota +3

A lot of underdogs this week, 11 out of 13 if you're fading the 7-1 picks. I'm taking some of these teams moneyline, such as Houston (I think Slaton will crush Indy's running game), Baltimore (Baltimore should neutralize the Tennessee run game), Tampa Bay (anything can happen with Denver's defense), Buffalo (I think they're legit, and +1.5 isn't much), and Miami (San Diego hasn't been overly impressive this season, only going ahead of Oakland late in the game last week. SD also allows 4.5 yards per carry, which is trouble against the Dolphins running game.)

Good luck to everyone this week!

Edit: Forgot the Atl/GB game.

Post edited by: twilliams, at: 2008/10/05 07:33

I cant see page 3, which has what I need to see..........any help??

Select the 3 in The Scorpion NFL System 2008 by twilliams [Page: 1,2,3]