Thanks twilliams and manass for that usefull info. I know that what I was asking was kind of confusing and you guys have a business to promote so I understand what you guys are saying. It was funny how no one responded until I in a way questioned what accuscore did instead of if anyone had had any log or taken any stats of certain periods or percentages when accuscore is dead on. I am in no way questioning the ability of accuscore and never really was.

Thanks

Cuisinart

actually

kuzniart but thats ok.

When wagering college football this year I tend to only stay with picks that come out around %65 chance of winning. How come in the begining of the week the numbers on a game could be high, say around %70 around wednesday, and then on saturday they drop to the low 60s while other games could fluctuate up that werent even on my radar to begin with. Because if its better to run more simulations during the week and go with the later numbers then I will. But if the early week percentages show a good number but the point spread is a bad number like 6.5 or 9.5 I feel I should jump on it early in the week before all the public money bumps it up a ahlf or a full point. What should the play be, and do later week predictions reflect more simulations run on the game? If so, should I be wary of mid week games that havent been put through the system that much?

The percentages reflect the odds of a team covering the Vegas point spread, according to AccuScore simulations. In an example, let's look at Kansas City/San Diego on Sunday.

Right now the line is:

KC +16 57.0%
SD -16 40.7%

According to AccuScore simulations, Kansas City has a 57% chance of covering the +16 point spread. Now let's say the line moves through the week, and on Sunday it ends up at -17.5:

KC +17.5 63.8%
SD -17.5 36.2%

The AccuScore simulations have not changed, but since the line has changed, AccuScore favors Kansas City even more. The reason is that in both scenarios, AccuScore is calling for San Diego to win by 13 points. That 13 point prediction will not change. However, if the line gets closer to SD -13 (like SD -14 for example) the simulations favor the Chiefs less. If the line moves further away from SD -13, the simulations favor the Chiefs more.

For the most part, the public betting drives a line. If everyone hammered the KC +16 point spread, the books would probably lower the line to KC +15 or KC +14 throughout the week. Since AccuScore is calling for a 13 point win by San Diego, the lower line for Kansas City will result in less of a chance of the Chiefs covering.

So in your example, if a team starts at 70%, and goes down to 60%, that usually means the public has been hammering the team you like, and according to AccuScore you have a less favorable line than you had at the start of the week, all thanks to the public going heavy on your pick.

So would you consider this an approximate Monte Carlo simulation model, and if so what are you basing the prob distribution on, empirale data for a given team over the season, over several seasons or for an entire leage over a single season or over several season. I understand much of this is obviously proprietary but I am just very curious and interested as I am fascinated by the computer application of probability and monte carlo simulation used in prediction models in markets and anything else for that matter. Can you go back and post the probability of a given outcome after the event has occured and give an approximate probability that the outcome would have occured as it did. For example in an extreme upset or a result that is entirely unlikely can you then give the probability that it would have occured prior to the event? Do you find that, if using empiricle data, when even running 10,000 simulations that there are often events for which the eventual outcome did not come up at all in the simulations and what percent of outcomes would you say fit this catagory? Do you find that the simulated games end up reflecting a normal distribution?

can someone please explain how to figure out SIDE VALUE?? on a laymens terms.

can someone please explain how to figure out SIDE VALUE?? on a laymens terms.