When wagering college football this year I tend to only stay with picks that come out around %65 chance of winning. How come in the begining of the week the numbers on a game could be high, say around %70 around wednesday, and then on saturday they drop to the low 60s while other games could fluctuate up that werent even on my radar to begin with. Because if its better to run more simulations during the week and go with the later numbers then I will. But if the early week percentages show a good number but the point spread is a bad number like 6.5 or 9.5 I feel I should jump on it early in the week before all the public money bumps it up a ahlf or a full point. What should the play be, and do later week predictions reflect more simulations run on the game? If so, should I be wary of mid week games that havent been put through the system that much?
-- Jimmy Neutron