NFL Playoff Forecasts

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Analysis
Both #1 Seeds won huge games over the #2 seeds near the end of the season, but overall, stumbled down the stretch a bit. The key to this game is Brandon Jacobs not just playing well, but dominating the game. Adrian Peterson is the best 'home run hitter' in the league with the highest percentage of explosive runs for any RB averaging more than 5 carries. However, he is well below average in terms of ypc when getting hit at or around the line of scrimmage. Brandon Jacobs has the size to get 3 or 4 yards even when hit at the line and is is crucial that even if he cannot get huge 10, 20 yard carries that he get his team into 3rd and short situations by mustering a lot of 3 or 4 yard carries. When Jacobs averages over 5.5 ypc with at least 1 TD the Giants have a 72 percent chance of winning. When he is held under 5 ypc the Eagles win 50 percent of simulations. Jacobs has to dominate and not just play well. The Vikings were able to disrupt McNabb with 3 sacks and one forced fumble. The Giants have a 42 percent chance of sacking McNabb 3 or more times and they have a 65 percent chance of winning if they can sack him 3 or more times. If the Eagles can protect McNabb and he is sacked 2 times or less the Eagles pull slightly ahead winning 50.5 percent of the these simulations.

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