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Many fans might be thinking this is a repeat of 2007 when the Rockies got a bit lucky and made a shocking run to the World Series. This season is not a fluke as Colorado rode an improved rotation, a typically strong lineup, and the NL’s best home record to a playoff spot. The Phillies’ core of Hamels, Utley, Rollins, and Howard were buttressed this year by the additions of Cliff Lee and Raul Ibañez.

This simulation is based on the following pitching assumptions:

Game 1: Jimenez vs. Lee

Game 2: Cook vs. Hamels

Game 3: Marquis vs. Blanton

Game 4: De la Rosa vs. Martinez

Game 5: Jimenez vs. Lee

This series is more difficult to project because of the uncertainty with both pitching rotations. The Phillies are set with Lee, Hamels, and Blanton but the Game 4 starter could either be Pedro Martinez or rookie J.A. Happ. Happ probably deserves the start on performance, but he would be better able to adjust to a bullpen role having done so previously, and the Phillies lack a power left-handed reliever due to the absence of J.C. Romero.

Colorado has several pitching issues of its own, first of all the health of Jorge de la Rosa. He suffered a groin strain against the Dodgers last week, and it has yet to be determined if he will be healthy enough to pitch. If de la Rosa is fine, either Jason Marquis or Jason Hammel would pitch one of the middle games. Both have bullpen experience, but Marquis had a slightly better season so we are projecting him to start.

Hamels and Lee, when they are on, are among the best pitchers in the National League. Having both pitch at home gives the Phillies at least double digit simulation advantages in Games 1 and 2 as well as a potential Game 5. Both are quite capable of being the number 1 starter, but in this series that honor has fallen upon Lee. Going with this alignment and pitching Lee twice actually improves Philadelphia’s chances by 2% overall. Despite Lee’s recent struggles, he has been better overall than Hamels. Homefield for Colorado in Games 3 and 4 is helping to even their projected chances in those games. A fully healthy De la Rosa would be a huge factor on if the Rockies are favored in one of those two games.

Both lineups feature great power which could lead to some big run totals in these two ballparks. Four different Phillies have hit 30+ home runs while 3 others have at least 10. Eight different Rockies have at least 13 home runs led by Troy Tulowitzki with 32. A big factor in this series could be the bullpens. Philadelphia has struggled mightily trying to find a closer because of Brad Lidge’s struggles. Moving Ryan Madson to the 9th inning role would create another void in the set-up role. Colorado should be set at the end of games, but Huston Street has dealt with some recent injuries and Franklin Morales is relatively new to a late-inning reliever role.

Both teams have issues mostly related to pitching. Still, Philadelphia has two true ace caliber starters, and could possibly have them pitch in 4 of the 5 games in the series. That would be a tall task for Colorado to overcome.