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The Dodgers and Phillies will reprise their 2008 series and meet in this year’s National League Championship Series. This is the fifth time Los Angeles and Philadelphia have played for the pennant. Starting pitching, as in the opening round, will once again take center stage as both teams have some slight questions in their rotations.

The baseline simulation assumes these pitching match-ups:

Game 1 – Wolf vs. Hamels

Game 2 – Kershaw vs. Martinez

Game 3 – Lee vs. Padilla

Game 4 – Happ vs. Billingsley

Game 5 – Hamels vs. Wolf

Game 6 – Kershaw vs. Martinez

Game 7 – Padilla vs. Lee

Because Cliff Lee started against the Rockies on Monday, he is projected to be the Game 3 and Game 7 starter in this series. He could pitch in Game 2, but it would be on short rest. Joe Blanton was apparently not in the final mix to start for the Phillies in the NLDS so he is projected solely as a relief pitcher here. The Dodgers meanwhile could choose to flip-flop Kershaw and Wolf as they were prepared to do if their NLDS series was extended. They will also have the same questions about Chad Billingsley to deal with.

Overall, the Phillies have a small 51% edge in the series mostly due to their starting pitching. Hamels and Lee will be able to start at least 4 of the 7 games. Hamels could also start Game 4 on short rest. Whenever they pitch, Lee and Hamels will give the Phillies the edge. The pair are terrific, but the Dodgers already showed against the Cardinals that they are perfectly capable of beating Cy Young caliber starters.

The pivotal games appear to be Game 3 and Game 5 in Philadelphia. Vicente Padilla is likely to oppose Cliff Lee which looks like a big mismatch on paper. Padilla though, if he can continue at the level he showed against St. Louis could provide a big boost to the Dodgers chances. If he can match Lee and hand the ball off to the bullpen for a possible win it would swing the series because the game has the largest simulation spread of the seven games. Game 5 is pivotal because it is projected as a complete coin-flip between Wolf and Hamels in Philadelphia which each team winning 50% of the time.

L.A.’s bullpen will once again have a big advantage in this series. With Hong-Chih Kuo and Ronald Belisario setting up George Sherrill and Jonathan Broxton, the Dodgers have no questions about who will be getting the finals outs of games. The Phillies will be playing match-ups and likely utilizing starters on their off-days as relievers. Brad Lidge finished Monday’s game against Colorado, but not before Scott Eyre got 2 outs to start the inning. Lidge has had arguably the worst season of any closer in baseball history. If he struggles, it would create a negative domino effect through the Phillies’ staff. A more innovative solution would be to use either Happ, Blanton, or even Martinez in the end game.

Both lineups are fairly balanced receiving contributions from players up and down the lineup. The big hitter for the Phillies, Ryan Howard, has a severe left-right split that Joe Torre should exploit every time possible late in games with either Kuo or Sherrill. Raul Ibañez has also shown a platoon split throughout his career (although not this season so far). The Dodgers’ Andre Ethier is also susceptible to left-handed pitching, but he will be sandwiched by right-handed power hitters (Matt Kemp and Manny Ramirez).

A key to this series could be the health (or lack thereof) of Dodger pitcher Hiroki Kuroda. The right-hander has performed very well since suffering a concussion on August 15^th in Arizona. In five September starts he posted a 2.79 ERA with 25 strikeouts and just 7 walks in 29 innings.

Because of Padilla’s performance down the stretch and in the NLDS, AccuScore projects him to stay in the rotation. This scenario shows what would happen if Billingsley were to be replaced by Kuroda in Game 4. Kuroda would actually make the Dodgers a favorite against J.A. Happ, which is doubly significant because it would be on the road in Philadelphia. This shift would also make push the Dodgers from a slight underdog in this series to a slight favorite. The numbers show that the two teams are fairly evenly matched so every little bit takes on even greater importance.