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Tim Williams - AccuScore Analyst
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The San Jose Sharks and Boston Bruins sit at the top of the NHL with the best records in the league, with each team holding the best record in their division.  On Tuesday night the two teams face off against each other for the first time this season, giving us a possible preview of this year’s Stanley Cup Finals.

AccuScore has simulated Tuesday’s game 10,000 times, and has Boston winning 58.8 percent of their home matchup against the Sharks.  The line of Marc Savard, Phil Kessel, and P.J. Axelsson is combining to score a goal in 94 percent of simulations against the Sharks, with Tim Thomas stopping 31 of 34 shots.  Patrick Marleau, Joe Thornton, and Devin Setoguchi are combining to score a goal in 88 percent of simulations for the Sharks, with Evgeni Nabokov forecasted to stop 23 of 27 shots.

Both teams have been dominating their opponents this season in every way.  Aside from ranking first in their respective conferences, and ranking first and second in the NHL, both teams find themselves in the top five in goals scored, goals allowed, power play percentage, and home records.

That last category may be the most important if these two teams manage to make it to the Stanley Cup Finals.  San Jose is an amazing 23-2-3 at home this year.  Boston has an impressive 19-3-4 record on home ice.  If the season ended today, Boston would win the President’s Trophy, giving them home ice advantage in a Stanley Cup Finals match against San Jose.

AccuScore simulated the possible Stanley Cup Finals matchup to see which team would hold the advantage in a seven game series.  With Boston holding home ice advantage, the Bruins would win a seven game series against the Sharks in 59 percent of simulations.  If San Jose held home ice advantage the outcome wouldn’t be much different, with the Bruins winning a seven game series in 55 percent of simulations.

Despite the great home ice advantage for both teams, Boston would win in either scenario.  The Bruins are winning 58.8 percent of simulations on home ice.  The Sharks are not seeing the same home ice advantage, winning just 52.2 percent of simulations on home ice.

According to these AccuScore simulations, the Bruins would hold a big advantage on home ice, but still would hold an advantage if San Jose rallied to win the President’s Trophy.  Of course both teams have to make the Stanley Cup Finals first.  Judging by how they’ve been playing so far this season, that doesn’t seem like a problem.