Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins: Thursday Night Football
The Cincinnati Bengals are nearing full strength with the return of linebacker Vontaze Burfict & tight end Tyler Eifert, and the timing couldn't be more opportune.
At 1-2, Bengals have had their worst start to to the season in five years. They'll host the Miami Dolphins (1-2) Thursday night as 7.5-point favorites, with the Bengals getting +290 odds on the money line in Vegas at the time of publication.
The odds listed in Vegas suggests the Bengals have about a 77-to-78 percent chance of winning this contest. AccuScore simulations, however, give a bit more value on the visiting side.
What do the sims say?
The simulations have Cincinatti winning about 66 percent of games, listing their money line odds closer to -205, compared to the -350 listed in Vegas. Miami covers the 7.5-point spread in over 55 percent of sims, with AccuScore suggesting the game stays more competitive than Vegas odds indicate.
Best Bet: The total combined score stays UNDER in about 58 percent of simulations, a hot-trend pick on this matchup.
Betting Trend(s): The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the Dolphins' last 6 games overall, and in 6 of the Bengals' last 8 games when playing at home against Miami
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What to Watch For
Keep an eye on Burfict to see just what kind of impact he has. He missed the first six games of last season, but played in about half of the defense's plays the very first game he returned. He missed the 2016 preseason and three regular season games so far. Every series, we'll learn more - he had solo tackles in his first game back last season and Miami will need that Thursday.
Fun Fact
The Dolphins and Bengals swapped coaches this offseason, with Vance Joseph replacing Kevin Coyle as Miami's defensive coordinator. Coyle then returned to Cincinnati - where he coached for 11 seasons before joining Miami - to replace Joseph.
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