PLAYOFF-BOUND

The New England Patriots were as aggressive as possible in addressing their team needs. There defense was good, but a bit old and slow so they added Adalius Thomas. Their receiving corp was subpar and they added Donte' Stallworth, Randy Moss and Wes Welker. The Patriots were already the class of the AFC East and these moves solidify this status. Accuscore has simulated the 2007 NFL Season 10,000 times and the Patriots won the AFC East an impressive 85.6% of the time!

PASSING GAME DOMINATES

To understand why they are forecasted to coast to the playoffs is evident from their Team Statistics. They are forecasted for slightly more points per game in 2007 vs 2006 (24.3 to 24.1) despite their significant drop in Rushing Touchdown production. Laurence Maroney is explosive and played great in the first half of his rookie season, but injuries contributed to a poor second half. The retirement of Corey Dillon is hurting the Patriots production in producing rushing touchdowns. His ability to get the tough yards in 3rd and short and goal-line situations is not something to simply dismiss.

Fortunately for the Patriots, their passing offense should be one of the most potent ones in the league. Their passing production will increase significantly from 223 passing yards per game to nearly 270. Their touchdowns through the air go from 1.5 per game to nearly 1.8. Even though their Rushing TD production is down in 2007, the Patriots find themselves in field goal range more often and 2nd year Kicker, Stephen Gostkowski should hit 1.8 FGs per game vs just 1.25 in 2006. So the reduction in Rushing TD scoring is offset by the increase in Field Goals and Passing TDs.

CAN A DEFENSE ALLOW MORE POINTS PER GAME AND BE BETTER?

At first glance, New England's 18.2 points allowed (3.3 more than in 2006) may be somewhat alarming, given the upgrade they made in the off-season. However, the Patriots are facing more potent offenses in 2007 than in 2006. In 2006 New England faced a number of poor offensive teams like the Miami Dolphins (Joey Harrington's first start), Minnesota (averaged just 17 ppg), Green Bay (held to 10 or less in 6 games), and Houston (the team that didn't draft Reggie Bush or Vince Young). New England gave up 24 pts in these 4 games which really skewed their overal PA lower.

In 2007 the only really poor offensive team on New England's schedule is Cleveland. They also face a number of Top 7 offenses like San Diego, Cincinnati, Dallas, Philadelphia, and Indianapolis. The harder schedule is the reason why the Patriots are forecasted to allow 3.3 more points per game in 2007. The important thing to remember is the 18.2 PA is 3 fewer points than the average team which is impressive given the quality of their opponents.

BELICHIK SMARTER THAN THE COMPUTER?
Accuscore has the Patriots as just a 3 pt underdog winning 38% of simulations in their Week 9 match-up with the Superbowl Champion Colts. The Patriots are expected to pass the ball 55% of the time.

Conventional thinking tells you the Patriots should try to pound the ball on the ground against the suspect Colts run defense, but in simulations where Accuscore reversed the pass:rush ratio (55% rushes) the Patriots chances declined from 38% to 34%. Remember in last year's AFC Championship game, Lawrence Maroney did not move the chains when the team was blowing their double digit lead. He rushed for just 13 yds on 8 carries.

Iif the Patriots air it out and go toe-to-toe with the Colts through the air by passing it 65% of the time their chances of winning are better (36%), but still not as good as their forecasted 38% using a 55/45 pass:rush ratio.

Based on this info, Accuscore Analysts won't be questioning Bill Belichik's play-calling. We thought rushing the ball more would have helped, but apparently Bill knows more than us.