Thursday Night Preview Patriots vs Jets

Tim Williams - AccuScore Analyst
Read Blog

The Patriots and Jets met for Matt Cassel’s first start in week two of this season, one week after the Patriots lost quarterback Tom Brady for the season. Despite the loss, and despite Matt Cassel making his first start since high school football, the Patriots won 19-10, thanks to a mistake free game from Cassel, and 94 carries on 22 yards from the Patriots’ running game. Since then, Cassel has led the Patriots to a 6-3 record, putting the Patriots in a tie for first place with the Jets in the AFC East.

The two teams meet to break that tie on Thursday night, and Cassel and the Patriots will be looking for a similar outcome as week two. AccuScore simulated the game 10,000 times to find that the Patriots will see a repeat of week two, winning 66.2 percent of simulations against the Jets by an average score of 25-19. Cassel is completing 68.7 percent of his passes for 211 yards, one touchdown, and an interception in 80 percent of simulations. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Sammy Morris, and Kevin Faulk are combining for 130 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries, while the Patriots defense is sacking Brett Favre twice, and forcing two New York turnovers.

Favre is putting up a solid performance, completing 62.3 percent of his passes for 221 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. The same can’t be said for the running game, as Thomas Jones and Leon Washington are being held to 81 yards on 23 carries, and a touchdown in just 40 percent of simulations. The Jets defense is sacking Cassel four times, and forcing two turnovers, but that’s not good enough to give New York the edge.

Running Game is the Key

The Patriots are dominating the running game on both sides of the ball in baseline AccuScore simulations, running for 130 yards, and holding the Jets to just 81 yards. That is proving to be the biggest key to victory in AccuScore’s simulations.

In custom AccuScore simulations when the Patriots are being held to under 100 rushing yards, New York is winning 55.6 percent of simulations, by an average score of 21-20. In this scenario, Matt Cassel is seeing a 13 percent increase in interceptions thrown, while the Jets are seeing a 12 percent increase in sacks.

The Jets are winning 58.7 percent of custom AccuScore simulations by an average score of 24-22 when running for 100 or more yards. Brett Favre is throwing 25 percent fewer interceptions in this scenario, completing 1.5 percent more passes, and the Patriots are seeing a 30 percent drop in sacks.

The Jets are losing the running game on both sides of the ball. If they want to win, they need to either hold the Patriots to under 100 rushing yards, or see their own running backs top the century mark. According to AccuScore simulations, New York has a 22.9 percent chance of running for at least 100 yards, and a 12.7 percent chance of holding the Patriots to under 100 rushing yards.

Does Cassel need to be perfect?

Last time around, Matt Cassel completed 16 of 23 passes for 165 yards, no touchdowns, and no interceptions. A similar performance on Thursday gives the Patriots a 62.5 percent chance of winning in custom AccuScore simulations. Cassel is throwing an interception in 80 percent of baseline AccuScore simulations, with the Patriots winning 66.2 percent of simulations. The question is, what margin of error does Cassel have on Thursday?

When Cassel throws for one interception, the Patriots see a 7.6 percent drop in their chances of winning, winning by an average score of 24-21. New England’s running game takes a hit in production due to a much closer contest. When Cassel throws for two interceptions, the Jets hold the edge, winning 52.7 percent of simulations against the Patriots by an average score of 23-22.

Cassel doesn’t have to be perfect on Thursday in order for New England to win, but he has to be close to perfect. The Patriots are winning the majority of simulations when Cassel throws one interception, but two interceptions gives the Jets the victory.

Trackback(0)

TrackBack URI for this entry