Tim Williams - AccuScore Analyst
Read Blog

The Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals are both coming off games with strange outcomes.  The Bengals and Eagles played to a 13-13 tie on Sunday, the first tie since a 2002 contest between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Atlanta Falcons.  Meanwhile, the Steelers won 11-10 against the San Diego Chargers, with a controversial call at the end which has brought cries of a gambling conspiracy.  The two teams meet on Thursday night for the second time this season, with the Steelers taking the first meeting 38-10 in week seven.

AccuScore projects another big victory for Pittsburgh, with the Steelers winning 86.6 percent of simulations against the Bengals, by an average score of 26-13.  Pittsburgh is recording a big win in a whopping 62.7 percent of simulations, giving the Bengals very little chance of pulling the upset on Thursday.

Ben Roethlisberger has struggled recently, but is putting up a decent performance on Thursday, passing for 226 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception in AccuScore simulations.  Willie Parker and Mewelde Moore are helping Big Ben by running for 133 yards and a touchdown on 32 carries.  Hines Ward is leading the Steelers’ receivers with five catches for 68 yards and a touchdown in 60 percent of simulations.  The Steelers defense is sacking Ryan Fitzpatrick four times, and forcing two Cincinnati turnovers.

Ryan Fitzpatrick is not having a good night against the Steelers defense, throwing for just 176 yards, one interception, and a touchdown in just 70 percent of simulations.  Cedric Benson is being held to 31 yards on 17 carries, for a dismal 1.8 yards per carry against the tough Steelers run defense.  T.J. Houshmandzadeh is putting up his second solid game in a row, catching six passes for 63 yards, but that effort is hardly enough.  The Bengals are sacking Roethlisberger twice, and forcing two turnovers.

Pulling the big upset

It is no secret that the Steelers have faced some significant problems with their offensive line.  Ben Roethlisberger has been sacked 32 times in ten games this season, and hurried more often than that.  The Steelers’ dominance this season has been based on the performance of Ben Roethlisberger, and Roethlisberger’s performance is based on the protection the offensive line provides.

Roethlisberger has been sacked three or more times in six of the ten games he has played in this year.  In those games, Roethlisberger has averaged 196 passing yards per game, throwing five touchdowns and eight interceptions.  In the four games where Roethlisberger has been sacked two or fewer times, his numbers look considerably better, with 203 passing yards per game, five touchdowns, and three interceptions.

In the six games where Roethlisberger was sacked three or more times, the Steelers have outscored their opponents by an average of 1.67 points per game.  In the four games where Roethlisberger was sacked two or fewer times, the Steelers outscored their opponents by an average of 12.25 points per game.  The Steelers also averaged about ten more points per game when Roethlisberger sees fewer sacks.

In custom AccuScore simulations, the Bengals improve their chances of winning by 14 percentage points when sacking Ben Roethlisberger at least three times on Thursday.  Roethlisberger is throwing an interception in 57 percent more simulations, and the rushing game is losing about ten total yards.  The Bengals are still a long shot, even with the extra sack, which is why they also need to focus on shutting down the running game, a task that won’t come as easy as the sacks.

The Bengals improve their chances of winning by 23 percentage points in custom simulations where they hold Willie Parker and Mewelde Moore to under 100 rushing yards.  When the Bengals are putting up three sacks against Roethlisberger, and holding the Pittsburgh running backs to under 100 rushing yards, they are winning 58.7 percent of custom AccuScore simulations by an average score of 21-20.  It may be a long shot, but the Bengals do have a shot on Thursday, and it involves exploiting the Steelers’ offensive line, limiting the running game, and putting pressure on Roethlisberger.  In short, the Bengals defense has to play near-perfect football to win this game.

TrackBack URI for this entry

Comments (0)

Subscribe to this comment's feed

Name

Title

Comment

Add Comment