Tim Williams - AccuScore Analyst
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If there has been one common theme of the Thursday night games the last few weeks, it has been to expect a blowout victory.  Two weeks ago the Steelers crushed the Bengals, last week the Cowboys and Titans defeated the Seahawks and Lions respectively, and this week the Chargers take on the Raiders in what should be another unbalanced matchup.  AccuScore has simulated the game 10,000 times and has the Chargers winning 76.7 percent of simulations by an average score of 25-15, recording a big win in 49.7 percent of simulations.

The last time these two teams met, the Chargers won 28-18, thanks to a 106 yard, two touchdown performance by LaDainian Tomlinson.  Tomlinson is at it again this week, running for 112 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries in AccuScore simulations.  Philip Rivers, who threw for one touchdown and two interceptions last time around, is forecasted to throw for 236 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception.  San Diego’s defense recorded six sacks last time, along with two turnovers.  This time around the Chargers are sacking JaMarcus Russell twice, and forcing one turnover.

Russell managed some offense last time around with 277 passing yards, one touchdown, and one interception, despite the heavy pressure.  AccuScore forecasts don’t project a similar outcome this time, with Russell throwing for 152 yards, with a touchdown in 60 percent of simulations, and an interception in half of simulations.  The running game was held to 68 yards on 21 carries last time, but is forecasted to be productive this time.  Justin Fargas, Darren McFadden, and Michael Bush are combining for 133 rushing yards on 30 carries, with a touchdown in 70 percent of simulations.

Pulling the upset

Oakland’s defense is the problem, only recording more than one sack in 40 percent of simulations, and recording more than one turnover in half of simulations.  Last time around the Raiders had four sacks, leading to two interceptions by Rivers.  In custom AccuScore simulations, the Raiders increase their chances of winning by 21.9 percentage points when sacking Rivers four times, pulling the difference in the average score to less than a field goal.  Philip Rivers is only throwing for one touchdown in this scenario, and LaDainian Tomlinson is being held to 96 rushing yards.

If the Raiders want to win, they will need to do more than get to Rivers.  They did this last time around, which led to a 15-0 lead in the first half, but LaDainian Tomlinson burned them in the second half with two touchdowns, leading the Chargets to their victory.  In custom simulations where the Raiders hold Tomlinson to under 75 rushing yards, they increase their chances of winning to 45 percent of simulations, losing the average simulation by one point.

When you combine the effort to shut down Tomlinson with a modest two sacks by the Raiders, Oakland pulls the upset in 53.8 percent of custom simulations, winning by an average score of 19-17.  This goes to show how little of a chance Oakland has, as even when putting pressure on Rivers, and containing Tomlinson, they are only winning in a little over half of simulations.

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