Tim Williams - AccuScore Analyst
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A lot of fuss has been raised over the ending to the Pittsburgh vs San Diego game, with people complaining that the game was fixed to save Vegas some money.  I agree that the call at the end of the game was questionable, and it probably was a mistake, but I seriously doubt Vegas was behind it all, and here are a few reasons why:

1. If Vegas was in for the fix on the game, why wouldn’t the refs just overturn the Troy Polamalu interception early in the game?
2. How could Vegas possibly know that the spread would be decided by a turnover returned for a touchdown on a last second flea flicker play?  To make this argument work, the NFL would either need to be professional wrestling, or the replay booth would have to be run by Vegas.
3. A figure like $64 million seems like a lot, but it’s probably not a lot to Vegas when you consider that this was just one game, and the public went 6-8 against Vegas on Sunday alone.  Why would Vegas risk a huge scandal over one game?

This is just a case of people making a bad decision by betting on Pittsburgh, seeing that bet come close to winning, and complaining that it was Vegas that made them lose.  Like any big scandal in sports (SEE: Steve Bartman, Bill Buckner, Jeffrey Maier, The Tuck Rule) the focus is always on one big moment, but that moment is rarely why a team lost, but simply the scapegoat.  As for the Steelers bettors, you’re taking the Steelers to win by at least five points, which is a bad decision to begin with.  This is a team that has been sacked 35 times, ranked 29^th in the NFL, going up against a team that has 22 sacks, ranked 12^th in the NFL, while playing in horrible weather, with Willie Parker banged up, and Ben Roethlisberger playing horrible lately.

Now as for fantasy football, unless you had the Steelers defense and you lost by a few points, you were probably unaffected by the final play of the game.  If you happened to have the Steelers defense, and you lost because the final play was overturned, then forget everything I wrote above.  The fix was in, and Vegas cost you that win, and probably your league championship.

The Truth About Week Twelve

- Jason Campbell (14.4), Brady Quinn (15.7), and Jeff Garcia (16.5) will score more points this week than Donovan McNabb (13.5).

-Tony Romo (17.3) will go back to being a top quarterback option this week against Seattle.  AccuScore has Romo forecasted for 251 yards and two touchdowns.

-In the group of “starting fantasy quarterbacks that you don’t feel comfortable starting”, Eli Manning (16.2) and Ben Roethlisberger (14.8) are good starts this week, while Brett Favre (10.1) is worthy of being benched.

-Matt Forte (20.5) will be the best running back option this week, tied with Marion Barber (20.5).  Forte is running for 121 yards, and scoring a touchdown in 95 percent of simulations.

-Larry Johnson (16) will give fantasy owners their first good week since week four against Denver.  Johnson is running for 103 yards and a touchdown in 77 percent of simulations.

-Sleeper running backs in AccuScore’s projected top 24: Kevin Smith (13.8), Peyton Hillis (12), Antonio Pittman (11), and Warrick Dunn (10.8).

-Running backs to avoid this week: Thomas Jones (9.4), Tim Hightower (8.9), Justin Fargas (8.7), and Darren McFadden (8.7).

-DeAngelo Williams (12.1) will repeat his success from last week.  Jonathan Stewart (7.9) will not.

-Sleeper wide receivers in AccuScore’s top 24 this week: Antonio Bryant (7.7), Joey Galloway (7.5), Derrick Mason (7.5), and Amani Toomer (7.5).

-With Chad Johnson out tonight, TJ Houshmandzadeh (7.7) is catching for 62 yards, with a touchdown in 27 percent of simulations.

-Marques Colston (8.3) is catching for 66 yards with a touchdown in 30 percent of simulations, but is not returning to being a number one fantasy receiver.

-Anquan Boldin (14) and Larry Fitzgerald (12.3) once again top the list of fantasy wide receivers.

-Antonio Gates (8), Jason Witten (9), and Kevin Boss (6.3) are the tight ends that have the best chance of scoring a touchdown this week.

-Sleeper tight ends in AccuScore’s top 12 this week: Boss, Dustin Keller (5.6), and Todd Heap (5.4).

-Avoid the following options this week: Donald Lee (5.1), Zach Miller (4.6), Greg Olsen (4.5), Tony Scheffler (4.2), and Anthony Fasano (3.8).

-Jeremy Shockey (5.3) is a good option to start this week.

-Miami (12.8) is a good sleeper defense this week, allowing 18 points, recording four sacks, and forcing a turnover.

-Denver (10.7) is also worth a gamble.  They play the Raiders, who they held to 14 points in week one, forcing two sacks and a turnover.  AccuScore simulations show a similar outcome this week, with a chance for more sacks, and 15 points allowed this time.

-Top defensive options to avoid this week: Minnesota (9.4), Washington (8.5), Arizona (8.5), San Diego (8.4), Carolina (7.3), and Dallas (7).

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CalifBurt said:

Green Bay will win tonight 28-24

November 24, 2008

So Cal Steeler said:

The fix WAS on. Explain to me how the HOME team gets 13 penalties for a buck fifteen, while the roadies pull 2 for 5 yards.

November 24, 2008

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