| The Truth About Week Nine |
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I was doing a project for the Wall Street Journal this past week (notice how I so casually dropped that name in there…it’s like I do this all the time) trying to revive a 1-7 team, and bring them out of last place. You can read the article, but I’m going to use this space to go in to more detail about the team, and my suggestions. The team in question, the Georgia Bulldogs, had Donovan McNabb as the quarterback, LaDainian Tomlinson, Willis McGahee, and Jonathan Stewart as the running backs (start two), Wes Welker, Matt Jones, and Mushin Muhammad as the wide receivers (start two), LJ Smith and Alge Crumpler as the tight ends (start one), Matt Prater as the kicker, and the Colts and Jets as the defensive options (start one). The first move I suggested was trading Willis McGahee and Mushin Muhammad for Maurice Jones-Drew and Donnie Avery. AccuScore projects MJD to average 4.5 more points per week than McGahee, despite the disappointing start to the season. A main reason for this is because MJD has great matchups the next few weeks, with Cincinnati in week nine, Detroit in week ten, and Houston in week 13. McGahee’s success the last few weeks, plus MJD’s struggles last week, would help get the deal done. AccuScore projects Avery to score 1.5 more points per week than Muhammad. The other team had Larry Fitzgerald and Chad Johnson as his wide receivers, so parting with Avery wouldn’t be a big loss for him. Overall the move gives the Bulldogs an extra six points per week, according to AccuScore simulations. For those of you reading at home, I’d suggest trading for MJD or Avery in your fantasy leagues, especially Avery before this week. My next trade was Jonathan Stewart for a wide receiver upgrade. I suggested either Bernard Berrian or Braylon Edwards, as both were being offered for running back help. The owner of Berrian had Brandon Marshall and Andre Johnson, so he probably wouldn’t think twice about dealing Berrian. AccuScore projects Berrian to 20 percent more points per week more than Welker for the remainder of the season. Apparently they ended up making the deal for Berrian, giving them a new starting roster of MJD, Berrian, and Avery over McGahee, Muhammad, and Welker (an increase of 6.2 points per week for the remainder of the season, according to AccuScore simulations). MJD, Berrian, and Avery might not look as appealing as McGahee, Muhammad, and Stewart, but the goal is to win games, not stock up on the best names. Fantasy football is all about points. We sometimes mistake the value of a player in their name, but the truth is that the names just make it easier to distinguish between the guy who has 67 points this season, and the guy who has 58 points. So if you’re in a situation like the Bulldogs, don’t worry about trading the big names. Just worry about getting the guy who is going to score more points for your team from now until the end of the season. The Truth About Week Nine -David Garrard (16.4) will score more points this week than the following quarterbacks: Peyton Manning (15.6), Aaron Rodgers (15.4), Jay Cutler (15.4), and Donovan McNabb (15.1). -Kyle Orton (16) will also have a big week against the Lions. AccuScore simulations project Orton to throw for 252 yards and two touchdowns. -Peyton Manning (15.6) will have a good week against a Patriots defense that is without Rodney Harrison. -A lot of sleeper quarterbacks this week cracking the top 12 in AccuScore simulations. Those include Jeff Garcia (13.3), Trent Edwards (13.2), Chad Pennington (13.7), and another big week from Matt Schaub (13.6). -This will be one of those good weeks for Michael Turner (14.6). Turner has struggled against good and decent run defenses (Philadelphia, Chicago, Carolina, Tampa Bay), but has done well against horrible run defenses (Detroit, Kansas City, Green Bay). The next few weeks will be good for Turner, with games against Oakland, New Orleans, and Denver. -Steven Jackson (18.3) is ranked second in AccuScore simulations, although he might lose some carries depending on his health. I’d still start him if he’s playing, especially against the Cardinals defense. -Matt Forte (16.2) will score more points this week than the following running backs: Chris Johnson (14.4), Ronnie Brown (14.3), Clinton Portis (14.2), Marion Barber (12.8), and Brandon Jacobs (14.1). -Expect a big week out of Maurice Jones-Drew (14.1) against the Bengals. I love MJD down the stretch, with the Lions next week, Houston in week 13, then Green Bay and Indianapolis in the championship weeks. -It’s going to be a down week for my boy Steve Slaton (9.7) against a tough Vikings defense. I’m starting Joseph Addai (12.8) over him if Addai is ready to go on Sunday. -If I had both Willie Parker (3.2) and Mewelde Moore (11.3), and Parker was announced as healthy enough to play on Sunday, I’d start Parker. Moore may steal some carries, but Parker will probably get the goal line work. -For those of you who picked up Donnie Avery (8.4) in the last two weeks, start him this week, as he will be a number one receiving option, with 62 yards and a touchdown in 37 percent of AccuScore simulations. -Eddie Royal (8.1) and Roddy White (10.5) will also have big weeks. White is receiving for 84 yards, and Royal is catching for 53 yards, with each scoring around 40 percent of the time in AccuScore simulations. -Taking a look at the fall of the mighty, Torry Holt (7.9), Plaxico Burress (7.8), Braylon Edwards (7.4), T.J. Houshmandzadeh (7.3), and Randy Moss (7.2) will all be number two options this week. I’m taking a guess that the people who drafted wide receivers early this year are the same people sitting near the bottom of their league standings. -Anquan Boldin (13.3) and Larry Fitzgerald (12.5) are the top two options at wide receiver this week in AccuScore simulations, but that doesn’t mean Steve Breaston (7) is not worth a start if you’ve got him. AccuScore ranks him as the number 25 wide receiver this week. -Sleeper wide receivers this week: Joey Galloway (7.1), Brandon Lloyd (7), and Derrick Mason (6.4). -John Carlson’s (6.8) value really depends on finding the end zone. AccuScore gives him the second best chance of all tight ends this week, scoring in a third of simulations. -Owen Daniels (6.3) is ranked ahead of Greg Olsen (4.9) in AccuScore simulations, but I like Olsen better. Daniels may be the number four ranked tight end this season, but I don’t consider him to be much better than Olsen, or even guys like Heath Miller (5.2) or Zach Miller (5.1). -I like Kellen Winslow (4.8) a bit more than AccuScore simulations. He’s the tenth ranked tight end this week, but has caught 23 passes in his last five games against the Ravens. -Despite scoring -11 points in the last two weeks, the Colts (14.5) will be a top defensive unit this week. AccuScore simulations have them allowing 19 points to the Patriots, with four sacks and two turnovers. -Arizona (11.8) has been off and on this season, scoring 20 or more points in three weeks, and scoring less than 10 points in the other four weeks. AccuScore projects them to be a top 12 option this week against the Rams, mainly due to the four sacks they’re projected for. Trackback(0)
Comments (4)
twilliams
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Erick, I'd go with Grant out of that group. There's no certainty as to how many touches the other three guys will get. Grant has a tough matchup against the Titans, but you know he's the guy getting the majority of the carries. |
twilliams
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John, I'd go with the following: Slaton and Jones at RB, Jennings and Avery at WR, Carlson at TE, Titans at defense. |
Erick Liddell
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I'm green lighting Westbrook & Ronnie Brown this week, but who do you think I should start out of Ryan Grant, Rickey WIlliams, and Mwelde Moore and Willie Parker? |
John-SCI
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Hi Tim, Thanks for the feedback on the trade evaluation a couple of weeks back. Now I am messaging to get starter help. RBs: Slaton, Grant, Thomas Jones, Lewis and Norwood (start 2) WRs: Jennings, Calvin Johnson, Avery (start 2) TEs: Carlson, Keller DSTs: Titans, Texans Thanks again, John |
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