| The Truth About Week Fourteen |
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For most fantasy players, week 14 is the final week of the regular season, making it the final chance for some to make the playoffs. This can lead to problems deciding who to start and who to sit, knowing that you will be kicking yourself if you lose, no matter who you decide on for your starting lineup. The important thing is to have informed decisions. Pay attention to this week, not the previous weeks. Brian Westbrook may have had a monster week last week, but that was against a bad Arizona defense, and that’s not going to help this week against the Giants, who allow the second fewest points to fantasy running backs. That’s why I’m starting Peyton Hillis (against the Chiefs, who allow the most points per game to fantasy running backs) and Steve Slaton against the Packers (the fifth worst team against fantasy running backs). My motto when it comes to the decisions in these crucial matchups: make an informed decision, set your lineups, and destroy your computer. The last thing you want to do is make a last minute change to your roster on Sunday that will cost you the championship. It’s a win-win situation, because if that move would have helped you, you can always say “I would have won if I could have made that switch, but my computer was destroyed”. Sunday morning I will be thinking “How can I bench Westbrook after such a good performance last week?” and that is why I am destroying my computer Saturday night. Note that I take no responsibility for the state of your computer after reading this article. That being said, for maximum “impulse roster movement” avoidance, I suggest also destroying cell phones, PDAs, and anything else that may provide you internet access. Not only does this avoid the problem of reversing the decision that your research led to, but you also avoid getting cold stares from your wife as you make a change to your fantasy lineups on your phone during a hymn in church on Sunday. The Truth About Week Fourteen AccuScore forecasted points in parenthesis - Matt Cassel (17.9) will score more points this week than Kurt Warner (17.6), Jay Cutler (17.3), Peyton Manning (16.7), and Donovan McNabb (14.3). -Matt Schaub (13.8) is a top quarterback option in his return this week. Schaub is throwing for 249 yards and a touchdown, and is ranked higher than Tony Romo (13.7), Eli Manning (13.2), and Brett Favre (12.8). -Quarterbacks to avoid this week: Brett Favre (12.8), Shaun Hill (12.1), Jason Campbell (12.1), J.P. Losman (11.4), and Chad Pennington (11.3). -Tyler Thigpen (14.5) will bounce back from his bad week last week, and will be a top quarterback option again this week.
-Peyton Hillis (20.6) is scoring more points than everyone except Adrian Peterson (22.1). Hillis is running for 112 yards and a touchdown in simulations, adding 26 receiving yards. I’m starting him over Marion Barber and Maurice Jones-Drew in my PPR league in a matchup that will decide first place in my division. -Steve Slaton (16.4) and DeAngelo Williams (14.9) will both have another good week. Brian Westbrook (13.3) and LenDale White (11.9) will not have a repeat of their dominating performances. I’m going with Slaton and Hillis over Westbrook in a standard league. -Tim Hightower (15.4) will be a top 12 running back this week against the Rams. Hightower is running for 77 yards and a touchdown in 95 percent of simulations. -Sleeper running back starters that are ranked in AccuScore’s top 24 this week: Pierre Thomas (14.5), Kevin Smith (12.8), Ryan Grant (12.5), and Sammy Morris (11.1). -Kevin Smith (12.8) is seeing an increase in production with the suspensions of Pat and Kevin Williams from the Vikings. Smith was running for 2.7 yards per carry before the suspensions, and is now running for 3.6 yards per carry, giving him 67 rushing yards, with a touchdown in half of simulations. -Running backs to avoid this week: Marion Barber (10.6) due to injury issues and his matchup against a tough Steelers run defense, Clinton Portis (8.9) who is being held to 52 rushing yards, and Willie Parker (6.2) who is scoring fewer points than Mewelde Moore (9.8).
-Donald Driver (10.1), Eddie Royal (9.7), and Lance Moore (9) will all see another big week this week. -I didn’t include Mark Clayton (4.8) in my waiver wire article because I don’t buy him having another good week. AccuScore forecasts three catches for 37 yards, with a touchdown in just 19 percent of simulations. The Ravens receiver to start is Derrick Mason (7.8) who is catching five passes for 65 yards, and has been more consistent with his production this season. -Sleeper wide receivers to start this week: Mark Bradley (6.9), Antonio Bryant (6.8), Kevin Walter (6.5), Steve Breaston (6.5), Amani Toomer (6.4), Michael Jenkins (6.4). -Wide receivers who will be much better in PPR leagues this week (all point totals assume one point per reception): T.J. Houshmandzadeh (13.5), Derrick Mason (13), Antonio Bryant (11.9), Matt Jones (10.3), Ted Ginn Jr (10.7).
-Kevin Boss (6.7), Donald Lee (6.4), and Antonio Gates (7.3) are the tight ends that have the best chance of scoring a touchdown this week. -Sleeper tight ends in AccuScore’s top 12 this week: Heath Miller (6.9), Boss, Dustin Keller (6.7), Lee, and John Carlson (5.6). -The following guys get a boost in PPR leagues this week (all point totals assume one point per reception): Jeremy Shockey (9.8), Dustin Keller (10.7), Bo Scaife (8.3), and Tony Scheffler (8).
-Once again, Miami (14.1) is a good sleeper defense, allowing 17 points, recording four sacks, and forcing two turnovers. -A big sleeper is Seattle (11.8), allowing 25 points, but recording four sacks and two turnovers to make up for that poor production. -Top defensive options to avoid this week: Tampa Bay (7.5) and Philadelphia (8.8).
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twilliams
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Slopjar, The rankings are from the AccuScore simulation results for week 14. While Green Bay is giving up 22.1 points on average, they are recording two sacks, and recording three turnovers in the majority of simulations, plus they're scoring a touchdown in a third of simulations. So Slaton and Johnson will cut in to the points for Green Bay, but they'll recover some with sacks and turnovers, and they have a good chance at scoring a touchdown to give those points a boost. |
Ryan741
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Tim, I'm in a bind for fantasy this week for the start of the playoffs. We start 2 RB, 2 WR, and a flex in a PPR league. I am for sure starting Fitzgerald and Wayne. I need to decide between Frank Gore, DeAngelo Williams, Chester Taylor and Tim HIghtower for my 2 RB positions. Then between Antonio Bryant, Marques Colston and the other 2 RB's for my flex position. |
Ryan741
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He didn't rank them, those are the sites projections. |
Slopjar
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You projections does not make sence. You rank Green Bay high (7) as a top 10 defense but you turn around and rank Andre Johnson (top 5) WR and Steve Slaton (top 10) RB who both play GB. You can't have it both ways! |
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