Tim Williams - AccuScore Analyst
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I’m going to go off topic on the intro this week to tell everyone about AccuScore’s College Football Playoff Simulator on ESPN (click the link to check it out, that is of course, after you read this week’s column).  It’s my opinion that the three things in sports that need to change are installing a salary cap in baseball, adding a playoff system to college football, and televising more competitive eating events.  With AccuScore’s playoff simulator you can see what would happen if college football had a playoff system.  To get an idea how it would go down, here are the results of a test run, using the BCS rankings:

Round One

Oklahoma defeats BYU 57-33

Penn State defeats Boise State 44-32

USC defeats Cincinnati 44-20

Oklahoma State upsets Alabama 30-24

Texas defeats Georgia Tech 39-20

Utah upsets TCU 28-20

Texas Tech defeats Ohio State 36-31

Florida defeats Georgia 43-25

At the end of the first round the Big 12 is dominating, with four teams representing the conference in the elite eight.  Utah remains the only minor conference team in the tournament after BYU, Boise State, and TCU.  Of course, that’s giving the Big East too much credit for being a “major conference”.  Sorry Big East fans.

Round Two

Penn State upsets Oklahoma 52-39

USC defeats Oklahoma State 36-29

Texas defeats Utah 42-18

Florida defeats Texas Tech 46-32

Oklahoma falls in the second round.  I can only assume that they thought it was a bowl game and forgot to show up as usual.  Despite giving a chance to 16 teams, top teams Florida, Texas, USC, and Penn State make it to the final four.  At least they earned it.

Final Four

USC defeats Penn State 38-29

Texas upsets Florida 41-35

Maybe a preview of the Rose Bowl between USC and Penn State?  Maybe a preview of what could have been the National Championship outcome this year?  Texas proves they belong by upsetting Florida.

National Championship

Texas defeats USC 25-19

I doubt it would be as good as the last time the two teams met to settle the National Championship, but we get the same outcome.  Try it out, go crazy with the playoff possibilities, and good luck to everyone in their fantasy football playoffs this week.

The Truth About Week Fifteen

AccuScore forecasted points in parenthesis

- Jeff Garcia (15.6) is scoring more points than normal top options Jay Cutler (15) and Drew Brees (14.2).

-I wrote this about Brees in my preview of the Bears vs Saints game , just in case you are wondering why I’m not starting him this week on the road against the Bears:

“In seven home games this year, Brees has completed 68.6 percent of his passes, throwing for an average of 321 yards per game, with 19 touchdowns and four interceptions.  In six road games this year Brees is completing 62.4 percent of his passes, throwing for an average of 309 yards per game, with seven touchdowns and ten interceptions.”

-A lot of sleeper quarterbacks in the top 12 this week: Garcia (15.6), David Garrard (15.3), Matt Cassel (15.3), Jason Campbell (15.2), and Tyler Thigpen (14.6).  Even though Garcia is ranked the highest, I like Cassel the best of the group.

-Quarterbacks to avoid this week: Matt Ryan (13.9), Matt Schaub (13.3), Chad Pennington (13.2), Jake Delhomme (11.9), Ben Roethlisberger (11.4), Brett Favre (10.9), and Marc Bulger (10.7).

-With Fred Taylor out, and expected to miss the rest of the year, Maurice Jones-Drew (20.3) becomes a monster play the next three weeks.  I’ll be going with him and Thomas Jones (19.7) in the FSTA semi-finals against Fantasy Football Sherpa.

-I’m not too happy that I’m playing an owner of DeAngelo Williams (20.6) in the semi-finals in two leagues this week.  AccuScore simulations have Williams as the number two ranked running back this week, behind only Brian Westbrook (20.8).

-Joseph Addai (15.9) is listed as doubtful this week.  If he can’t go, Dominic Rhodes (10.6) becomes a top option against Detroit’s defense.  I’d start Rhodes as a flex back even if Addai can play this weekend, but he becomes a must start if Addai is out.

-Sleeper running backs this week that are ranked in AccuScore’s top 24: Pierre Thomas (13.2), Kevin Smith (12.2), Rhodes, and Maurice Morris (9.7).

-Running backs to avoid this week: Frank Gore (9.7), Reggie Bush (8.9), Brandon Jacobs (8.7), Tim Hightower (7.6), and Tatum Bell (7.3).

-Anquan Boldin (12.7) and Larry Fitzgerald (12.2) seem to own a home at the top of the rankings ever week, and rightfully so.

-Antonio Bryant (9.5) was no fluke last week.  He won’t come close to 200 yards, but expect another good performance.  He is forecasted for six catches, 76 yards, and a touchdown in a third of simulations.

-Sleeper wide receivers to start this week: Amani Toomer (7.3), Bernard Berrian (7.3), Ted Ginn Jr (7.1), Deion Branch (6.6), and Laveranues Coles (6..6).

-Justin Gage (6.7) is ranked in the top 36 this week, but I refuse to start a Tennessee wide receiver.

-Torry Holt (6.9) has been horrible this year.  Seattle’s passing defense has been horrible this year, with the Seahawks allowing the most points to fantasy wide receivers.  Something has to give this week, and I’m banking on Holt having a good week.

-Dallas Clark (7.4), Kevin Boss (6.7), and Jason Witten (8.7) are the tight ends that have the best chance of scoring a touchdown this week.

-Sleeper tight ends in AccuScore’s top 12 this week: John Carlson (7.3), Kevin Boss (6.7), Bo Scaife (5.6), Dustin Keller (5.5), and Jerramy Stevens (5.3).

-The following tight ends get a boost in PPR leagues this week (all point totals assume one point per reception): Owen Daniels (10), Bo Scaife (9.7), Dustin Keller (9.5), and John Carlson (11.3).

-I had them in my waiver wire article , but after thinking about it, I can’t bring myself to starting the Oakland Raiders (14.2).

-I’m banking on the Washington Redskins (12.8) to lead me to the finals against the Bengals this week.  Cincinnati hasn’t scored a touchdown since the first quarter of their November 20^th game against the Steelers.  If you’re scoring at home, that’s 11 quarters without a touchdown.  They’ve only scored two touchdowns in their last four games.

-Top defensive options to avoid this week: Tampa Bay (7.1) and Dallas (6.6).