Tim Williams - AccuScore Analyst
Read Blog

I don’t know if you knew this, but there’s this team in the NFL that plays in Tennessee, and apparently they’re pretty good.  Not many people talk about them, but they just so happen to be 9-0.  A year after the Patriots were receiving massive publicity over their chances of going 16-0, the Titans are quietly 9-0, with no hype at all.

Maybe it’s because Kerry Collins is their quarterback.  Maybe it’s because they don’t run up the score like the Patriots.  Maybe it’s because they haven’t won a few Super Bowls the last several years.  It could also be because the Titans don’t stand out as one of the top teams in the NFL.

Comparing the two teams, we find the following:

-New England averaged 115.6 rushing yards per game in 2007.  Tennessee is averaging 134.8 yards per game this year, showing they can control the game on offense.

-Tom Brady threw just nine interceptions in 2007.  Tennessee quarterbacks are on pace for nine interceptions this year, showing they’re not bound for a lot of turnovers.

-New England obviously put up more offensive points, thanks to their padding of the stats.  However, the Patriots allowed 17.1 points per game in 2007, while Tennessee is allowing just 13 points per game.

Looking at their remaining schedule, Tennessee has struggling teams like Jacksonville, Detroit, Cleveland, and Houston remaining.  They have the Jets at home in week 12, and the Steelers at home in week 16.  Their toughest matchup could be the Colts on the road in week 17.  It’s not out of the question to think that this team could go 16-0, and maybe even 19-0.  The question is, if they lose, do the 2007 Patriots join the 72 Dolphins in popping the champagne open, or is that celebration reserved only for teams that went 19-0?

The Truth About Week Eleven

-Sleeper quarterback starters this week: Matt Ryan (15.5), Ryan Fitzpatrick (15.3), Matt Hasselbeck (15.2), and Tyler Thigpen (14.5).

-Despite the good week last week, Brady Quinn (11.6) will score fewer points than the following quarterbacks: Ben Roethlisberger (11.8), Kyle Orton (12), David Garrard (12.8), Trent Edwards (13.1), Shaun Hill (13.2), and Matt Cassel (13.5).

-Last Monday was my annual “Who is that quarterback for the 49ers?  I swore they were starting Shaun Hill.  Wait a second.  That is Shaun Hill, and I’ve been thinking about Shaun King all this time” moment.  I think the 49ers would have started Hill earlier in the season, but they probably went through the same process.  He really needs to change the spelling of his first name to “Shawn” to avoid confusion.

-Quarterbacks to sit this week: Philip Rivers (13.4), Eli Manning (13.3), and Brett Favre (12.5).

-Frank Gore (24.2) will heavily out-score any other running back this week.  Gore has six touchdowns in six career games against the Rams.  AccuScore simulations project 154 rushing yards, 23 receiving yards, and at least one touchdown.

-Joseph Addai (15.4) will be a top running back option (finally) this week against the Texans.  AccuScore projects 84 yards and a touchdown in 80 percent of simulations.

-Sleeper running back options: Cedric Benson (11.2), Kevin Smith (10), BenJarvus Green-Ellis (9.9), and Deuce McAllister (9.9).

-Other not-so obvious top running back options this week: Larry Johnson (15), DeAngelo Williams (14.8), Matt Forte (14.2), Tim Hightower (13.7).

-Running backs to avoid this week: Thomas Jones (9.4), Willie Parker (9.2) and Mewelde Moore (8.4), Earnest Graham (7), Peyton Hillis (6.9), Willis McGahee (8.7) and Ray Rice (7.1), and don’t expect a repeat from Jerious Norwood (8.2) or Chester Taylor (3.2).

-Eddie Royal (12.1) will score more points this week than Reggie Wayne (12), Larry Fitzgerald (11.7), Steve Smith (11.6), Brandon Marshall (9.9), Terrell Owens (9.8), Andre Johnson (9.6), and Greg Jennings (9.5).

-Expect another big week from Michael Jenkins (9), who is catching four passes for 61 yards and a touchdown in half of simulations.

-Other wide receiver starts: Jenkins, T.J. Houshmandzadeh (8.7), Hines Ward (8.9), Calvin Johnson (8.5), Koren Robinson (8), Donald Driver (7.8), and Laveranues Coles (7.6).

-Sleeper wide receivers if your league starts three: Joey Galloway (7.4), Antonio Bryant (7.1), and Bobby Engram (7).

-I like Mark Bradley (5.6) a lot more than the AccuScore simulations.  I’m not as sold on Malcom Floyd (4.7) yet.

-Wide receivers to avoid this week: Roy Williams (6.7), Dwayne Bowe (6.6), Chris Chambers (6.6), Chad Johnson (6.5), Santonio Holmes (6.3), and Torry Holt (6.3).

-Sleeper tight ends to start this week: Kevin Boss (6.2), Dustin Keller (5.9), Zach Miller (5.4), and Todd Heap (5.2).

-From the “I’d upgrade him in a second, but I’d never drop him” group of tight ends, John Carlson (7.2) and Owen Daniels (5.2) will have good weeks, while Anthony Fasano (3.4) and Greg Olsen (3.8) will make you wish you traded for a tight end upgrade this week.

-If Heath Miller (6.1) can go, start him.  San Diego averages 12.4 points allowed per week to tight ends, including an average of one touchdown a week.  If Miller can’t go (which seems like it will be the case), Matt Spaeth is a great sleeper.

-Miami (14.9) is the sleeper defense of the week, allowing 13 points to the Raiders offens, and recording three sacks and a turnover.

-Top defenses to avoid this week: Tennessee (9.9), Pittsburgh (9.8), Chicago (9.6), Dallas (9.3), Baltimore (9), Minnesota (8.6), and Washington (8).

TrackBack URI for this entry

Comments (2)

Subscribe to this comment's feed

Erick Liddell said:

Jabar Gaffney on NE?!!

November 16, 2008

Erick Liddell said:

Did I read the weekly forecast correctly? You guys believe he can be the top WR this week/ That guy is on the wire in my league and personally I don't think he can reach the top in a bad game of Tetris.

November 16, 2008

Name

Title

Comment

Add Comment